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The SC crude oil futures contract fell 4.00% intraday, currently trading at 490.00 yuan per barrel.On June 23, Deutsche Bank lowered its gold price forecast by up to 22% as investors grew increasingly cautious about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and investment demand for the precious metal dried up. Michael Hsueh, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report that he now expects gold to reach $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, a reduction of more than one-fifth from his previous forecast; and $4,800 in the fourth quarter, a reduction of 17%. This still implies that gold prices will continue to rise from the current level of around $4,110 per ounce, but the bullish sentiment is significantly weaker than before. Deutsche Bank shifted to a more cautious outlook, following Goldman Sachs move last week, which lowered its year-end gold price target by $500 to $4,900 per ounce. Hsueh stated that the Feds repricing, coupled with resilient US macroeconomic data, were the main factors driving gold prices lower. The banks fourth-quarter target is based on the assessment that the Fed will continue to maintain unchanged interest rates, but if there are three to four rate hikes, gold prices could fall to around $3,800. Continued outflows from gold ETFs indicate that this traditionally supportive factor for gold prices is "significantly absent." On the positive side, the only remaining strong pillar is central bank demand, and we expect this trend to continue for some time.Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.08%, and Dow Jones futures fell 0.36%.Sources indicate that Nissan halted development of its electric Qashqai SUV early last year. Even if the project is restarted, the model is not expected to launch until the next decade.Japanese chip stocks continued their decline, with Kioxia shares falling 14% and SoftBank Group shares dropping nearly 10%.

As traders anticipate US CPI, USDJPY maintains a defensive position and trades above 146,000

Alina Haynes

Nov 10, 2022 18:32

截屏2022-11-10 下午4.21.43.png 

 

The USDJPY pair struggles to benefit on yesterday's modest rebound from the 145.15-145.10 support zone, or an almost two-week low, and confronts fresh supply on Thursday. During the early European session, the pair maintains a defensive posture and is currently trading marginally above the 146.00 round number at the daily low.

 

A small decrease in the U.S. dollar, along with repositioning activity ahead of significant U.S. macroeconomic data, drives some USDJPY sales. Traders are reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's release of the latest US consumer inflation data, so the downside remains contained. The crucial US CPI report will play a key role in determining the Fed's policy tightening path, which should influence the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the major's direction.

 

The markets continue to price in a rate hike of at least 50 basis points in December. In contrast, the Bank of Japan has not yet indicated an intention to raise interest rates. In addition, the BoJ remains committed to maintaining the 10-year bond yield at 0%. Thursday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan emphasized that the central bank must continue to support a feeble economic recovery with a liberal monetary policy. Kuroda remarked that economic uncertainty is fairly significant and that negative interest rates can be further decreased if necessary.

 

This is a big contrast to a more hawkish Federal Reserve and increases the probability of USDJPY purchases. In addition, the BoJ governor's rejection of aspirations for a direct intervention in the foreign exchange market to preserve the domestic currency gives credence to the bullish perspective. Therefore, any potential decrease may continue to attract some buyers and is likely to be restricted for the time being. A decisive breach below the psychological threshold of 145.00, however, would invalidate the positive outlook.

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