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Dell (DELL.N) shares rose to 10%.On September 11th, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 47.8, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less than 4 points. Both Democrats and Republicans saw significant declines, while independents remained largely unchanged from August. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions over the next year fell sharply. With rebounding fuel prices and escalating trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressure on their wallets in the future. Five-year expectations for business conditions remained stable, but the reading was well below historical averages, suggesting that consumers believe the new risks emerging this month may not further worsen the long-term outlook. Overall, consumer confidence is currently 16% lower than before the start of the Iran conflict in February and 13% lower than a year ago. Inflation expectations for the next year jumped to 4.6% this month from 4.0% last month, the highest reading since June. The current reading significantly exceeds the 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict and also surpasses all readings for 2024. Long-term inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain above the 2.8% to 3.2% range for 2024.The preliminary reading for the U.S. five- to ten-year inflation rate in September was 3.4%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous reading of 3.30%.The preliminary reading for the US one-year inflation rate in September was 4.6%, down from the expected 4.2% and the previous reading of 4.00%.The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was 47.8, below the expected 51 and the previous reading of 51.7.

As the US labor market strengthens and China CPI is anticipated, AUD / USD Appears Vulnerable Near 0.6600

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:59

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The AUD / USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth pattern during the Asian session below the round-level resistance of 0.6600. The Australian asset appears vulnerable at the same time that the risk-aversion theme has been strengthened by intensifying fears of a U.S. recession and expectations of higher rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are displaying nominal losses following a fragile recovery move. It seems that the dead cat recovery move by the 500-US stocks basket is tapering away. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways above 105.20 after a modest correction; however, the upside appears favored amid positive U.S. Employment data.

 

The robust addition of new jobs to the US labor market in February as a result of rising demand has validated Fed policymakers' concerns about persistent inflation. The United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported an increase of 242K positions in February, exceeding both the expected increase of 200K and the previous release of 119K. As a result, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "The Fed is prepared to announce more rates to reduce inflation."

 

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday, will provide investors with greater insight into the state of the US labor market. In addition, the dissemination of the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Wages will be crucial.

 

The Australian Dollar has been under intensified pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) fifth consecutive 25 basis point (bps) rate hike and RBA Governor Philip Lowe's consideration of a policy-tightening suspension in response to a one-time blip in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Investors are currently focused on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February) data. It is anticipated that China's annual CPI will decrease to 1.9% from the previous release of 2.1%. The monthly CPI in China has been reduced to 0.2% from 0.8% previously. If inflation declines, the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may be forced to infuse more liquidity into the economy.


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