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June 2nd - Eurozone inflation surpassed 3% for the first time in two and a half years, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Eurostat reported on Tuesday that the CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, up from 3% in the previous month and in line with the median forecast. Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose sharply to 2.5%, exceeding expectations, while the closely watched services index jumped to 3.5%. Markets expect the ECB to raise interest rates in June for the first time since September 2023. Officials appear to have concluded that they can no longer wait and must respond immediately to the impact of the Middle East conflict.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating the Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas." The plan mentions promoting the research and application of high-end, intelligent agricultural machinery and equipment suitable for hilly and mountainous areas. It also calls for the categorized cultivation of leading enterprises in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector, manufacturing single-item champion enterprises, and specialized and innovative SMEs, supporting enterprises in strengthening production line technological transformation and accelerating digital transformation, and building strong advanced manufacturing clusters and SME characteristic industrial clusters in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector. The plan systematically promotes the research and development of new energy agricultural machinery and equipment technologies, industrial collaboration, and infrastructure construction. It also calls for the orderly development of the low-altitude economy in the agricultural and rural sectors. Furthermore, it emphasizes strengthening independent research and development of modern facility agriculture equipment and the categorized and orderly upgrading and renovation of old facilities. Finally, it implements a "preferential subsidy for superior machinery" and "entry and exit" system for agricultural machinery purchase and application subsidies, as well as the scrapping and replacement of old agricultural machinery.The UK government has unveiled its proposed seventh carbon budget, setting a target of reducing emissions by 87% between 2038 and 2042.Scotiabank raised its price target for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $215 to $290.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization," clarifying the guiding principles, objectives, key tasks, and policy measures for accelerating agricultural and rural modernization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan emphasizes using accelerated agricultural and rural modernization to better advance Chinas modernization drive. The plan proposes that by 2030, the foundation of food security will be continuously strengthened, the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture will be continuously improved, the achievements in poverty alleviation will be further consolidated and expanded, the level of self-reliance in agricultural science and technology will be significantly enhanced, significant progress will be made in building agriculture into a modern large-scale industry, farmers income will continue to grow rapidly, the construction of livable, workable, and beautiful villages will be accelerated, new breakthroughs will be achieved in urban-rural integration, and remarkable results will be achieved in high-quality agricultural and rural development. The plan also provides an outlook for 2035.

As the Fed Minutes weigh on the U.S. Dollar, AUD/USD bulls seek acceptance over 0.6700

Daniel Rogers

Nov 24, 2022 14:55

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Despite quiet around 0.6730-40 during Thursday's Asian session, the AUD/USD remained on buyers' radar. Possible causes include the massive selling of the US currency and the cautious optimism of the market.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped the most in two weeks the day before the release of the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which revealed that policymakers addressed the need to delay rate hikes. According to the Federal Reserve Minutes, reports about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) "sufficiently restrictive" interest rate level also weighed on the dollar.

 

Significant bearish drivers for the AUD/USD pair in November were the worse US PMIs and the high Jobless Claims data. The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November declined to 47.6 from 50.0 expected and 50.4 previously, while the Services PMI decreased to 46.1 from 47.9 anticipated and 47.4 previously. The S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 46.3 in November from 47.7 expected and 48.8 prior readings.

 

Despite this, the United States Weekly Jobless Claims jumped by the most since June, at 240K compared to 225K expected and 220K prior, boosting sentiment and weakening the US Dollar.

 

Alternately, robust prints of the US Durable Goods Orders, up 1.0% in October compared to 0.4% indicated estimates and a downwardly revised 0.3% previously, combined China's covid difficulties and negative prints of Australia's S&P Global PMI for November to challenge the AUD/USD bulls. The market's attention on the Fed Minutes and the likelihood of a Coronavirus recovery appears to have bolstered Aussie pair buyers.

 

Despite these wagers, Wall Street closed in positive territory, while US Treasury yields decreased and devalued the US Dollar.

 

A lack of noteworthy data/events and a US holiday may allow the AUD/USD pair to retain a portion of its recent gains. China's COVID-19 concerns and the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish inclination may be on the same line (RBA). Bulls are poised to keep dominance despite diminishing prospects for quick Fed rate hikes.

 

A convincing upward breach of the 100-day simple moving average and a one-week-old declining trend line near 0.6695 and 0.6590, respectively, has buyers of the AUD/USD pair eyeing the monthly high above 0.6800.