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The final reading of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November was 49.6, below the expected 49.7 and the previous reading of 49.7.Germanys final manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, below the expected 48.4 and the previous reading of 48.4.On December 1st, Jonas Feldhusen, an economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, stated that the French manufacturing sector remained weak in November, despite a rebound in exports. The final November manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 from 48.8 in October, confirming the disappointing preliminary reading. The downward trend was particularly pronounced in demand-related sub-indices, leading to a further contraction in production at its fastest pace since February. New orders showed little improvement – only overseas orders saw growth – highlighting continued weakness in domestic demand. This weakness was also reflected in purchasing activity and inventory dynamics. Companies are reducing raw material purchases and simultaneously cutting inventories, indicating declining production demand. Employment contracted again after a brief period of growth from May to October, meaning a net decrease in manufacturing employment in November. Price changes added further pressure. PMI price data showed that manufacturers faced intense competition, limiting increases in output prices. Against this backdrop, corporate profit margins are likely to be squeezed.Frances final manufacturing PMI for November was 47.8, in line with expectations and the previous reading.The yield on German 2-year government bonds hit its highest level since March 28, reaching 2.045%, up 1.5 basis points on the day.

As the Fed Minutes weigh on the U.S. Dollar, AUD/USD bulls seek acceptance over 0.6700

Daniel Rogers

Nov 24, 2022 14:55

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Despite quiet around 0.6730-40 during Thursday's Asian session, the AUD/USD remained on buyers' radar. Possible causes include the massive selling of the US currency and the cautious optimism of the market.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped the most in two weeks the day before the release of the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which revealed that policymakers addressed the need to delay rate hikes. According to the Federal Reserve Minutes, reports about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) "sufficiently restrictive" interest rate level also weighed on the dollar.

 

Significant bearish drivers for the AUD/USD pair in November were the worse US PMIs and the high Jobless Claims data. The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November declined to 47.6 from 50.0 expected and 50.4 previously, while the Services PMI decreased to 46.1 from 47.9 anticipated and 47.4 previously. The S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 46.3 in November from 47.7 expected and 48.8 prior readings.

 

Despite this, the United States Weekly Jobless Claims jumped by the most since June, at 240K compared to 225K expected and 220K prior, boosting sentiment and weakening the US Dollar.

 

Alternately, robust prints of the US Durable Goods Orders, up 1.0% in October compared to 0.4% indicated estimates and a downwardly revised 0.3% previously, combined China's covid difficulties and negative prints of Australia's S&P Global PMI for November to challenge the AUD/USD bulls. The market's attention on the Fed Minutes and the likelihood of a Coronavirus recovery appears to have bolstered Aussie pair buyers.

 

Despite these wagers, Wall Street closed in positive territory, while US Treasury yields decreased and devalued the US Dollar.

 

A lack of noteworthy data/events and a US holiday may allow the AUD/USD pair to retain a portion of its recent gains. China's COVID-19 concerns and the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish inclination may be on the same line (RBA). Bulls are poised to keep dominance despite diminishing prospects for quick Fed rate hikes.

 

A convincing upward breach of the 100-day simple moving average and a one-week-old declining trend line near 0.6695 and 0.6590, respectively, has buyers of the AUD/USD pair eyeing the monthly high above 0.6800.

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