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On January 15, Ruth Gregory, an analyst at Capital Economics, said that the Bank of England will be more cautious in its decision to cut interest rates next month after the unexpected cooling of British inflation at the end of last year. Data released on Wednesday showed that the UK inflation rate fell to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in November, lower than economists expectations. Gregory said: "Todays data is good news for the Bank of England." He pointed out that interest rate setters are now more likely to vote to further reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the February policy meeting.On January 15, the Royal Bank of Canada expects that the CPI data released tonight will show that inflation has slowed further after accelerating in September and October, but it will not be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month. The overall CPI growth rate is expected to rise to 2.8% in December from 2.7% in November due to a narrowing of gasoline price declines, pushing energy prices back to a level close to the same period last year after four consecutive years of year-on-year declines. The expected decline in the core CPI monthly rate is due to a slowdown in rental price growth and other core services. The core CPI monthly rate is expected to fall to 0.2%. But this is not enough to offset the unexpected upward trend in recent economic data, including the non-farm data released last Friday. The Federal Reserve is expected to abandon interest rate cuts in January and keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% throughout 2025.French Bank Governor Villeroy de Villeroy: The government needs to detail the savings and tax measures needed to achieve the new forecast of 5.4% of deficit to GDP this year.Britains FTSE 250 rose 1.7%, on track for its biggest one-day gain since July last year.Germanys full-year GDP growth rate for 2024 and the IEA monthly crude oil market report will be released in ten minutes.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-03 上午9.47.05.png

 

In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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