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On November 24th, German Chancellor Merz stated on the 23rd that the core elements of the USs proposed "28-point" plan regarding fiscal arrangements were "unacceptable." Speaking after the G20 leaders summit, Merz said the US had no right to use Russian central bank assets frozen within the EU. Furthermore, the demand for an additional $100 billion in funding from Europe was also unacceptable to Germany. Merz stated that the EUs current plan to use frozen Russian assets within the EU to provide loans to Ukraine to support its further arms purchases was also unacceptable.BHP Billiton (BHP.N): The group is no longer considering a merger with Anglo American.November 24th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Anglo American has rejected BHP Billitons (BHP.N) latest acquisition offer. The sources stated that after evaluating the proposal, Anglo American determined it was not superior to its existing merger plan with Teck Resources Ltd. BHP Billiton attempted to acquire Anglo American last year for $49 billion, but was repeatedly rejected and ultimately withdrew from the acquisition. Since then, BHP Billiton has stated it will focus on its own business growth portfolio to avoid repeating the mistakes of overexpansion during the previous merger and acquisition boom.Market news: Anglo American has rejected the latest takeover offer from BHP Billiton (BHP.N).On November 24th, Alexei Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, argued that the EUs plan to mediate the conflict in Ukraine is a carefully crafted scheme to perpetuate the conflict. Pushkov stated, "Europes peace plan is not a genuine peace plan, but a plan to continue the war. And it has been carefully considered and corrected." The supplementary plan on Ukraine proposed by the EU, released on Sunday, includes 28 points, including a suggestion that Ukraine could join NATO, a possibility unacceptable to Russia. The plan suggests that Europe proposes allowing Ukraine to join NATO if NATO member states reach a consensus. The European proposal does not specify a timeframe for holding elections in Ukraine. It also includes a statement that NATO will not deploy troops in Ukraine, though this is stated as "in peacetime." Furthermore, the European proposal does not include recognition that Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk are de facto "Russian territory."

As oil prices fall and investors become risk-averse before the BOC meeting, USD/CAD rises to 1.3200

Daniel Rogers

Sep 07, 2022 16:50

截屏2022-09-07 上午11.31.45.png 

 

The USD/CAD has risen for three consecutive trading days, and it is currently trading near 1.3190, which is the weekly high. To appease buyers near the highest levels in two months prior to the Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy Meeting, the Loonie pair has recently been applauding rising rates and a risk-aversion wave.

 

Declining prices of WTI crude oil, Canada's principal export, further strengthen the USD/CAD exchange rate as speculators anticipate the fifth BOC rate hike in 2022.

 

WTI crude oil prices have dropped to their lowest level since late January, down 1.70 percent to $85.40 as of press time on the back of recession worries and a stronger US dollar. Market perceptions of the latest production cut by OPEC and its partners, including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, could add to the downward pressure on commodity prices.

 

In addition to the covid-related pessimism in China and the European energy crisis, improved US data strengthened the hawkish Fedbets and boosted the US dollar.

 

In the United States, the ISM Services PMI rose to 56.7 from 55.1 and above market expectations. In contrast to initial expectations of 45.0 and 44.1, the S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI both fell to 44.6 and 43.7, respectively. Still, following the news, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a new 20-year high. There is now a 72.0% possibility of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in September, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 57.0% the day before.

 

The three-day surge in rates for 10-year US Treasuries to 3.25 percent is the highest it has been since June 15. The S&P 500 futures have also dropped to a new seven-week low, falling 0.55 percent intraday to 3,890.

 

The stronger U.S. dollar, declining oil prices, and reduced risk appetite should keep USD/CAD bulls optimistic despite the BOC's expected base rate increase of 75 basis points to 3.25 percent. Consolidating recent gains may be possible for the Canadian currency, however, thanks to hawkish comments from the BOC Rate Statement and softer Fedspeak.


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