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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

As Japan Prepares for BOJ Amamiya to Handle Monetary Policy, the EUR/JPY Rebounds from 142.00

Daniel Rogers

Feb 06, 2023 16:09

After falling to approximately 142.00 during the Asian session, the EUR/JPY pair has made a robust recovery. According to a Nikkei article published by Bloomberg, the Japanese government is aiming to recruit Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to replace Haruhiko Kuroda as the head of the central bank.

 

In February, the nominees for Kuroda's replacement will be finalized, and discussions for a change from the ultra-loose monetary policy of the past decade will intensify.

 

The BoJ has already widened the yield curve to boost flexibility. Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Masazumi Wakatabe noted last week, "BoJ's December decision to broaden band was a necessary step to make YCC more sustainable, but the move alone may have undermined the effect of the stimulus."

 

For renewed impetus in the Eurozone, investors anticipate the release of Retail Sales data. The economic statistics is expected to drop by 2.7% annually, compared to the prior annual contraction of 2.8%. It is projected that the monthly data will decrease by 2.5% compared to the 0.8% growth reported earlier.

 

The Eurozone economy has suffered a decrease in consumer spending for five consecutive months, which will satisfy the European Central Bank (ECB) as it reduces its forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB Governing Council, told Reuters on Friday that the ECB will not reduce its benchmark interest rate from 50 basis points (bps) in March to zero in May. May might see a 25 or 50 basis point increase, according to Wunsch.