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Guatemalan government: The tariffs announced by the United States violate the provisions of the Central American Free Trade Agreement.Japans five-year government bond yield fell 9.5 basis points to 0.98%, the lowest level since February 10.Futures news on April 3, crude oil trend fluctuated narrowly, finished product shipments weakened, fuel oil market players held prices and waited and watched, downstream orders were dominated by rigid demand after phased stocking up, and refinery shipments were lukewarm. It is expected that the overall market trading will be stable today, with a few narrow adjustments.On April 3, CICC pointed out that Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, which exceeded market expectations. Reciprocal tariffs use a combination of "carpet-style" tariffs and "one country, one tariff rate", covering more than 60 major economies. Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns and aggravate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy. Calculations show that tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. Faced with the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve can only choose to wait and see, and it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of economic downturn and increase the pressure on the market to adjust downward.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: US tariffs may have a "chilling effect" on investment and spending.

Application of fundamental analysis

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

what is fundamental anaylsis?

Fundamental analysis is conducted mainly through analysing economic, social, and political factors that influence the market demand and supply. Investors who rely on fundamental analysis must find out the various factors that affect the economy, such as those that will boost the economy to grow rapidly, and those that will drive it down.

This method of analysis is based on the assumption that a country's currency will be strong when its economic outlook is good. The reason is that the better a country's economic conditions, the more foreign companies and investors will be willing to invest in the country, and they need to buy a large amount of local currency to acquire assets.

Application of  fundamental anaylsis?

A variety of fundamental changes will influence currency pairs. Out of these changes, interest rate expectations tend to have the biggest impact on the strength of a country's currency, and investors can trade accordingly.

If a country's released inflation data keeps surpassing the central bank's target, the central bank will influence the local currency according to its own inflation target by raising or lowering interest rates.


Usually, the central bank will raise interest rates to reduce the amount of money in circulation and curb inflation. If the central bank wishes to increase the amount of money in circulation, it may do so by lowering interest rates. Generally, as the difference between a high-interest currency with a low-interest currency widens, hot money will tend to flow into the high-interest money market, driving the demand for money higher. This is one of the reasons for the rise in medium-term and long-term exchange rates, and investors may capture these opportunities to 


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