After The Indian Catastrophe, Adani's $2.5 Billion Stake Sale Is Crucial

On Monday, the second day of bidding for the $2.5 billion share sale of Gautam Adani's flagship company will be overshadowed by a $48 billion fall in the Indian billionaire's equities, which was triggered by a report from a U.S. short seller.

Seven listed firms belonging to the Adani conglomerate, which is led by Asia's richest man, experienced significant value declines after a research by Hindenburg Research raised concerns about excessive debt levels and tax haven use.

Adani Group filed a comprehensive statement late on Sunday, stating it adheres with all local laws and had made necessary regulatory disclosures. It has stated that the story is unfounded and that it is exploring legal action against Hindenburg.

The stock market crash has been a severe blow for 60-year-old Adani, a school dropout who ascended rapidly in recent years to become the world's third richest man until falling to seventh place on the Forbes list last week.

The secondary share sale by Adani Enterprises launched for retail and institutional investors on Friday, but saw only 1% subscriptions as the company's shares slid 11% below the minimum offer price.

Adani Group said in a statement to Reuters on Saturday that the sale remains on schedule at the planned issue price, despite reports from sources that bankers on the country's largest secondary share sale are considering extending the timeline beyond January 31 or adjusting the price due to the share price decline.

"It is crucial for the Adani Group to ensure the share sale goes through," said Ambareesh Baliga, a Mumbai-based market analyst who advises family offices. "If they keep to the price and don't cut it, and the stock doesn't rebound back, nobody would be interested in applying," he added.

"Monday's trade will be key."

In a second statement released on Sunday, Adani Group's chief financial officer Jugeshinder Singh expressed confidence that the share sale will be successful. Additionally, he stated that its anchor investors have demonstrated confidence and stay invested.

The Phrase 'FREE FALL'

Some Adani Group equities have soared more than 1,500% in the previous three years after rapid expansion in operations that include ports, power production, airports and mining.

Adani Enterprises has set a minimum price of 3,112 rupees per share and a maximum price of 3,276 rupees per share for the secondary share sale - significantly above Friday's closing price of 2,761.45 rupees per share.

Arun Kejriwal, founder of Kejriwal Research & Investment, said investors were likely to wait until the penultimate day of the share sale to see if the price band is modified.

"I anticipate that the free decline witnessed on Friday may moderate, but recovery to a level prior to this fall may be challenging," he noted.

According to Indian legislation, the share offering must receive a minimum subscription rate of 90%; otherwise, the issuer is required to repay the entire cash.

Maybank Securities and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority are among the bidders for the issue's anchor share.

MSCI, an index provider, announced on Saturday that it was soliciting feedback from market parties regarding Adani and was monitoring variables that "may impact the eligibility of certain relevant securities" for inclusion in MSCI indexes.

At least six Adani Group companies comprise 4.31 percent of the total weight of the MSCI India Index.