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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

According to Coinbase, Bitcoin is trading near the day's lows at roughly $45,700

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 09:53

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin 

Bitcoin's most active contract month (April BTCJ2022) is trading near $45,845 on the CME's futures market. Some analysts are expecting the gap on the CME futures chart that formed between last Friday and Monday to be filled.

 

With the BTC on the CME only minutes away from a 1-hour break before re-opening on Globex, it appears like the weekend gap ($45,395 – $46,565) will be close to being eliminated, but will not be totally backfilled as of today.

 

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Another distinguishing feature of the CME chart over Spot charts is the presence of the 200-day simple moving average (red line). This long-term moving average is located at $48,300 in the spot market and effectively signals current resistance. While the 200-day moving average (M.A.) on the CME futures chart had been resistance since the beginning of 2022, it was breached on Monday when the price gap was developed.

 

The 200-day moving average in CME futures is $45,880, and while the market slipped below this average intra-day, as the day's trading comes to a close, this average may become support since prices are just around $100 below this long-term technical indicator.

 

Back in the spot markets, we can observe that the last two days correspond to a relatively shallow correction after the run that began in the middle of March and put BTC above $48,000.

 

image.png 

 

Looking at the charts above, we can see that the commencement of the retracement is based on two independent data sets. The 23 percent retracement level from the last 16 days (in blue) and the last 35 days (in purple) both imply that the 23 percent level is significant and stays active as either support or resistance.

 

This level is often considered as the bare minimum for classifying a price decrease as a retracement. As a result, Bitcoin closing above this level bodes favorably for bulls and indicates that there is likely more upside to come.

Bitcon Price Prediction

The last two days have done little damage to the chart, and our target for the conclusion, which might reach as high as $53,000, remains in our current model. Traders who have been taking our calls took profits on half of their positions yesterday at $48,000 and continue to be long the other half of their positions at $43,000. Protective stops should be ignored; prices came within $16 of stopping us out with a profit (on the remaining half), with lows of $45,516.