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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

According to Coinbase, Bitcoin is trading near the day's lows at roughly $45,700

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 09:53

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin 

Bitcoin's most active contract month (April BTCJ2022) is trading near $45,845 on the CME's futures market. Some analysts are expecting the gap on the CME futures chart that formed between last Friday and Monday to be filled.

 

With the BTC on the CME only minutes away from a 1-hour break before re-opening on Globex, it appears like the weekend gap ($45,395 – $46,565) will be close to being eliminated, but will not be totally backfilled as of today.

 

image.png 

 

Another distinguishing feature of the CME chart over Spot charts is the presence of the 200-day simple moving average (red line). This long-term moving average is located at $48,300 in the spot market and effectively signals current resistance. While the 200-day moving average (M.A.) on the CME futures chart had been resistance since the beginning of 2022, it was breached on Monday when the price gap was developed.

 

The 200-day moving average in CME futures is $45,880, and while the market slipped below this average intra-day, as the day's trading comes to a close, this average may become support since prices are just around $100 below this long-term technical indicator.

 

Back in the spot markets, we can observe that the last two days correspond to a relatively shallow correction after the run that began in the middle of March and put BTC above $48,000.

 

image.png 

 

Looking at the charts above, we can see that the commencement of the retracement is based on two independent data sets. The 23 percent retracement level from the last 16 days (in blue) and the last 35 days (in purple) both imply that the 23 percent level is significant and stays active as either support or resistance.

 

This level is often considered as the bare minimum for classifying a price decrease as a retracement. As a result, Bitcoin closing above this level bodes favorably for bulls and indicates that there is likely more upside to come.

Bitcon Price Prediction

The last two days have done little damage to the chart, and our target for the conclusion, which might reach as high as $53,000, remains in our current model. Traders who have been taking our calls took profits on half of their positions yesterday at $48,000 and continue to be long the other half of their positions at $43,000. Protective stops should be ignored; prices came within $16 of stopping us out with a profit (on the remaining half), with lows of $45,516.

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