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On June 25th, Westpac stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to be less likely to raise interest rates as sharply as initially anticipated. This is because an early resolution to the Iranian conflict implies a weaker inflation outlook and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will begin raising rates in September, but will only raise them once more for the remainder of the year. This means the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, before falling back to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had predicted the rate could reach as high as 4.25%. Westpac wrote, "Our core view suggests that the RBNZ will raise rates one less time this year than our most recent forecast, but one more time than pre-conflict projections."The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.55%.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 20-year government bond auction was 2.97, the lowest level since May 2025, compared to 4.01 in May.June 25th - The 4th China International Blockchain Expo (CIE) was held in Beijing from June 22nd to 26th. It is reported that Japan had the largest number of delegations from Asian countries at this years CIE. Ten Japanese economic delegations visited China, including representatives from the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Keidanren is Japans largest and most authoritative comprehensive economic organization, with core members encompassing leading companies across almost all sectors. The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is one of Japans largest national business organizations. The Kansai Economic Federation represents the Kansai region, Japans second-largest economic zone. These ten organizations broadly cover all aspects of Japans social enterprise network.June 25 – The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held its regular June press conference today (June 25). Officials stated that my country has entered its main flood season, and in response to the severe situation of potentially large fluctuations in water quality during this period, the Ministry has acted swiftly and made arrangements. Regarding abnormal water quality fluctuations during the flood season, the Ministry will promptly conduct analysis and consultations, providing point-to-point guidance to local authorities to identify the causes and accelerate rectification. Simultaneously, it will promote joint risk assessment and collaborative countermeasures between upstream and downstream areas, as well as between left and right banks of river basins, to avoid situations where "upstream pollution leads to downstream liability" or "left-bank remediation leads to right-bank relapse," thus forming a closed-loop management system for problem assignment, rectification implementation, and follow-up evaluation.

AUD/USD tests bearishness near 0.6350 as China's GDP and US PMIs show improvement

Alina Haynes

Oct 24, 2022 16:44

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After China released positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter (Q3) early on Monday, AUD/USD bids perk up to pare intraday losses to 0.6365. However, negative sentiment, volatile markets, and pessimism surrounding Australia appear to provide challenges for Aussie pair buyers.

 

China's GDP for the third quarter grew by 3.9% compared to the market's prediction of 3.4%, while September's Industrial Output grew by 6.3% opposed to the market's forecast of 4.5%. In September, however, China's retail sales fell to 2.5% from 3.3% as predicted by the market.

 

In addition to hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical concerns about China, it should be noted that recent AUD/USD pricing has been affected by expectations that the Australian government may decrease growth projections in the forthcoming budget update.

 

According to new forecasts to be published by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Tuesday's budget, Reuters stated that Australia's economic growth will decline significantly in the coming fiscal year as rising inflation reduces family expenditures. ABC News reported elsewhere that Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskiy expressed nuclear war concerns. Concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping will escalate geopolitical tensions with the United States over Taiwan have also weighed on the AUD/USD exchange rate.

 

Despite this, S&P 500 Futures post intraday gains of 0.50 percent, while 10-year US Treasury rates remain at 4.19 percent, extending Friday's falls from the 14-year high.

 

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia declined to 52.8 from 53.5 in September and 52.5 as projected by the market, while the Services PMI decreased to 49 from 50.6, and 50.5 correspondingly. This resulted in the S&P Global Composite PMI sliding into contraction territory with a value of 49.6 compared to 50.9 previously.

 

Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic) of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), emphasizes that the RBA board anticipates further interest rate increases in the near future. The policymaker also highlighted, according to Reuters, that the magnitude and timing of rate hikes will depend on incoming data.

 

Future AUD/USD traders will pay close attention to risk catalysts as well as the preliminary US PMI figures for October. In spite of this, AUD/USD bears are likely to retain control given the recent surge in hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical fears.

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