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New York gold futures surged 4.00% intraday, currently trading at $5286.10 per ounce.Eurozone money markets currently estimate a 25% probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by July, compared to 15% on Tuesday.1. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, in June and July respectively. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year, with the first cut in June. 3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. 4. Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December this year. 5. EY Bordrin: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, but not until the second half of the year. 6. JPMorgan Chase: No longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026; the next action is expected to be a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. 7. KBC: The next rate cut may not come until March, by 25 basis points. A further 25 basis point cut may be made in the second quarter to reach the neutral interest rate level. 8. Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve will maintain its policy unchanged until June. A decline in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner if the labor market weakens further. 9. ING: The baseline forecast is for the Fed to cut rates in March and June, but the apparent risk now is that this pace could be delayed by three months overall. The Feds "dual mandate" will face more pressing pressure to achieve a rate cut in March. 10. ANZ: A pause in rate cuts in January was appropriate, but a prolonged pause is unnecessary. They forecast the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June. 11. Wells Fargo: Given the two months of economic data to be released before the March meeting, rate cuts could come earlier, in March and June. The risk to their forecast leans towards a delay in the timing of rate cuts.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 15:27 on January 28 near Sunan County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province (38.93 degrees north latitude, 98.22 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE, as of the week ending January 26, 2026, total refined product inventories at the Port of Fujairah were 23.369 million barrels, an increase of 2.012 million barrels from the previous week. Specifically, light distillate inventories increased by 887,000 barrels to 8.529 million barrels, middle distillate inventories decreased by 133,000 barrels to 3.405 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 1.258 million barrels to 11.435 million barrels.

AUD/USD struggles to surpass 0.6350; Australian Inflation/US GDP under the microscope

Alina Haynes

Oct 25, 2022 15:37

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During the Tokyo trading session, the AUD/USD pair reversed its decline to trade near 0.6350. The Australian dollar is under pressure as a result of Jinping's pessimism in China. Despite a small decline in S&P500 futures following three straight bullish settlements, the risk-on inclination remains firm. Following a poor beginning in Tokyo, the US dollar index (DXY) is attempting to retake the critical 112.00 mark.

 

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes has reduced to 4.21 percent as a result of a positive market sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a fourth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of 75 basis points (bps) stands at 95%.

 

According to a Reuters survey regarding the Fed's interest rate forecasts, the central bank will announce its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate increase. According to additional results of the Reuters poll, the central bank should not terminate monetary policy until the inflation rate falls to around half of its current level. Without a question, the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking cycle increases the probability of a future recession.

 

MSNBC reported that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remarked, "Cannot rule out risk" of a recession, creating a huge surge in recession worries.

 

Thursday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers will dominate the news in the future. The annualized GDP is projected to climb significantly to 2.4%, compared to the earlier forecast of a 0.6% decline.

 

The Australian bulls have been shaken by the extraordinary third term of Chinese leader XI Jinping. China's economic prospects are in jeopardy, which has an effect on Australia's trade projections. Moreover, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is increasing popularity. According to projections, the annual rate of headline inflation will rise to 7.0% from 6.1% in the previous report.


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