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On August 23, Galaxy Securities stated that in the short term, the index will continue to fluctuate due to overseas volatility and stock structure disturbances, and the game and rebalancing between sectors will continue. However, external shocks are more of a phased disturbance, and the domestic policy signals and the logic of the main industry line have not been shaken. Looking ahead to the second half of the third quarter, the market will mainly be structural rotation and repair. It is recommended to focus on the policy line and the direction of economic verification to seize structural opportunities. Next week, pay attention to the following events: (1) Overseas macro pricing, the second valuation of the US second quarter GDP, the core PCE in July and the speech of the chairman of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be released one after another; (2) Technology company performance verification, Nvidias financial report is an important indicator for observing the continued expectation of global AI capital expenditure; (3) The disclosure of A-share interim reports is about to end, which may become an important window for the concentrated release of individual stock alpha. The industrial enterprise profit data to be released next week will provide a total scale for profit recovery; (4) At the industry level, pay attention to the 2026 Wenchang International Aviation and Aerospace Forum, etc.Ukrainian President Zelensky: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense faces a funding gap of $27 billion this year.According to Japans Kyodo News, a poll shows that the approval rating for the Sanae Takaichi cabinet has dropped to 50.2%, the lowest since she took office.The Norwegian government plans to provide 85 billion Norwegian kroner in support to Ukraine in fiscal year 2027.August 23 – According to a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated that Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir will visit Tehran on Monday. Baghae said the visit is a continuation of Pakistans efforts to strengthen regional peace and security. Pakistan is currently playing a mediator role in negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at ending the conflict.

AUD/USD struggles to surpass 0.6350; Australian Inflation/US GDP under the microscope

Alina Haynes

Oct 25, 2022 15:37

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During the Tokyo trading session, the AUD/USD pair reversed its decline to trade near 0.6350. The Australian dollar is under pressure as a result of Jinping's pessimism in China. Despite a small decline in S&P500 futures following three straight bullish settlements, the risk-on inclination remains firm. Following a poor beginning in Tokyo, the US dollar index (DXY) is attempting to retake the critical 112.00 mark.

 

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes has reduced to 4.21 percent as a result of a positive market sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a fourth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of 75 basis points (bps) stands at 95%.

 

According to a Reuters survey regarding the Fed's interest rate forecasts, the central bank will announce its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate increase. According to additional results of the Reuters poll, the central bank should not terminate monetary policy until the inflation rate falls to around half of its current level. Without a question, the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking cycle increases the probability of a future recession.

 

MSNBC reported that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remarked, "Cannot rule out risk" of a recession, creating a huge surge in recession worries.

 

Thursday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers will dominate the news in the future. The annualized GDP is projected to climb significantly to 2.4%, compared to the earlier forecast of a 0.6% decline.

 

The Australian bulls have been shaken by the extraordinary third term of Chinese leader XI Jinping. China's economic prospects are in jeopardy, which has an effect on Australia's trade projections. Moreover, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is increasing popularity. According to projections, the annual rate of headline inflation will rise to 7.0% from 6.1% in the previous report.


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