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On August 30, following US sanctions against Banque Misrs UAE branch, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBA) stated that it expects banks licensed to operate in the UAE to "not expose the UAE financial system to reputational risk" or "abuse the UAEs advanced financial infrastructure." In a statement, the CBA indicated it would conduct an urgent inspection of Banque Misrs local branches in the UAE, emphasizing that these branches are subject to UAE laws and regulations. The CBA added that it is "studying contingency plans for potential special measures against the bank." The US Treasury Department stated that the sanctions against Banque Misrs UAE branch are part of a broader US effort to escalate economic actions against Iran and its international financial partners, and that this move will cut off the branchs access to dollar transactions.On August 30, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that no vessel can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian coordination. Gharibabadi said, "The Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. If any vessel passes through the strait, it is certainly after coordination with Iran and obtaining permission." He stated that the Iranian armed forces have full control over all activities in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US claims regarding vessels passing through the strait are completely untrue. He indicated that Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but the strait will not be open until the US fulfills its commitments. He stated that Iran will continue its defensive actions and is prepared for any scenario.On August 30th, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren made sharp comments regarding President Trump and the war with Iran. She implied that oil companies closely associated with the president have profited from the war. "Hes the most corrupt president in American history, thats a fact," Warren said. "So the question becomes: what do we do? When Trump goes to war with Iran, and those oil industry allies who donated $1 million to his campaign start making huge profits, our responsibility is to expose that and fight back. Thats what we need to do." Undoubtedly, oil companies have profited immensely from the war. ExxonMobils second-quarter profit reached over $14 billion, double that of the same period last year. Chevrons second-quarter profit quadrupled compared to the same period in 2025, currently reaching $12.1 billion. Meanwhile, according to Trumps financial disclosures for the second quarter ending in 2026, he continued to buy and sell shares of oil and gas companies during the Iran war. Democrats, citing data from the Joint Economic Committee, stated that Trumps related holdings expanded from the $13 million to $46 million range at the beginning of the year to the $17 million to $61 million range in mid-August. The White House stated that Trump was not involved in these transactions. Warren said, "Want to lower gasoline prices? Then end the war with Iran. Just end this war."On August 30th, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated on August 29th that Iran and Oman had reached an understanding on passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, but this understanding would not automatically enter the implementation phase. Gharibabadi indicated that unless the United States fulfills its obligations, the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz will not enter the implementation phase, and Iran is in no hurry to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.August 30th - According to the Daily Telegraph, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Healy is considering a windfall profits tax on banks and oil companies in his first budget. Treasury officials are discussing the two policies as they try to find a way to fill a £4.7 billion shortfall in public finances while avoiding a direct increase in personal taxes. It is understood that Healy hopes next months budget will be low-key and ensure that the inevitable tax increase is far less than that implemented by his predecessor, Reeves.

AUD/USD and JPY Are in Focus as APAC Trading Begins Amid Fed Bets and BOJ Scrutiny

Drake Hampton

Apr 25, 2022 10:30

Asia-Pacific Outlook for Monday

The risk-averse Last week, the Australian Dollar fell sharply against the US Dollar as markets adjusted to growing hawkish shifts in Fed rate hike bets. As a result of these shifts, short-term Treasury yields increased as traders sold government bonds. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 'front-loading' of tightening, with 50 basis point hikes favored as the base case scenario for the next four FOMC meetings.

 

Apart from the Fed and rate hike bets, the market will be watching Australia's first-quarter inflation data due Wednesday. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise to 4.6 percent year over year. This would be an increase from 3.6 percent year on year in Q4. A stronger-than-expected print may rekindle some bullish energy in the Australian Dollar, as bets on an RBA rate hike may strengthen in response to the strong price data. As of Friday, cash rate futures indicated a low probability of a rate hike at the RBA's May meeting.

 

The Japanese Yen will also be under focus this week, as the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its April policy decision on Thursday. Rate traders do not anticipate a change in the benchmark rate, although they do anticipate an update to the bank's inflation targets. USD/JPY increased for a seventh straight week, owing to the BOJ's vigorous bond buying aimed at limiting rates. Last week, USD/JPY one-week risk reversals went into negative territory, indicating that options traders may be favoring some short-term Yen gains.

 

Elsewhere, the March trade balance for New Zealand will be released, which may cause some volatility in the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD declined last week as a result of the general risk-off sentiment that drove the majority of APAC currencies lower against the USD. This is despite the fact that bets for an RBNZ rate hike have firmed. The Kiwi Dollar's fall was almost certainly also a result of lower metal prices, which have been weighed down by both a stronger US Dollar and weakening demand as China's crackdown continues. 

Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD

The march bottom is clearly in focus after AUD/USD plunged this week, slicing through its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). If prices fall below 0.7162, this might spark bearish sentiment sufficiently to push prices near the critical 0.7000 level. Recently, both the MACD and RSI oscillators produced bearish signals, with a cross below their respective center lines. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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