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On May 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced via social media that he had spoken with European Council President Costa, exchanging views on Ukraines cooperation with Europe and its integration into European integration. Zelenskyy stated that he and Costa focused on joint efforts to further Ukraines integration into Europe, clarifying Ukraines commitment to becoming a full member of the EU and that preparations are underway for initiating negotiations and subsequent decisions.On May 9th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliaments Energy Committee stated that production continues uninterrupted at multiple oil fields across the country. He asserted that the actions of adversaries targeting Iranian oil tankers are entirely illegal, and that pressure on Iranian oil exports has been ineffective. There are currently no official reports of an oil spill near Kharg Island. Earlier reports indicated that satellite images suggested a large-scale oil spill near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, with pollution covering tens of square kilometers of sea surface.On May 9th, according to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, during which a report was heard on the construction of the national comprehensive transportation system. The meeting emphasized the need for coordinated advancement of transportation infrastructure construction, adhering to integrated planning and systematic integration, effectively utilizing existing resources and optimizing new supply. It stressed the importance of improving management and service levels, creating a more convenient travel environment to facilitate the smooth flow of people and goods, and promoting cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement in freight transportation. The meeting also called for deepening reform and innovation, building a unified and open transportation market, actively promoting the application of new technologies, developing new transportation business models safely and orderly, and cultivating more new growth points.On May 9th, according to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which discussed and promoted work related to resolving local government debt risks. The meeting pointed out that since the implementation of the comprehensive debt reduction plan, significant progress has been made in resolving debt risks. It is necessary to continue focusing on key areas and weak links, improve policies supporting debt reduction, enhance local governments ability to repay debts independently, and ensure the timely completion of debt reduction tasks. It is also necessary to establish and improve a long-term mechanism to resolutely prevent the creation of new hidden debt.On May 9th, according to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the need to strengthen the planning and construction of water networks, new power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks. He stressed that efforts to ensure peoples livelihoods should focus on stabilizing employment and providing a safety net, while also improving education, healthcare, childcare, and rural development. He called for greater efforts and more concrete measures to strengthen basic research, placing it high on the agenda, identifying key areas and priorities based on both urgent national needs and long-term objectives, increasing investment through multiple measures, and fostering a favorable research environment.

AUD/USD and JPY Are in Focus as APAC Trading Begins Amid Fed Bets and BOJ Scrutiny

Drake Hampton

Apr 25, 2022 10:30

Asia-Pacific Outlook for Monday

The risk-averse Last week, the Australian Dollar fell sharply against the US Dollar as markets adjusted to growing hawkish shifts in Fed rate hike bets. As a result of these shifts, short-term Treasury yields increased as traders sold government bonds. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 'front-loading' of tightening, with 50 basis point hikes favored as the base case scenario for the next four FOMC meetings.

 

Apart from the Fed and rate hike bets, the market will be watching Australia's first-quarter inflation data due Wednesday. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise to 4.6 percent year over year. This would be an increase from 3.6 percent year on year in Q4. A stronger-than-expected print may rekindle some bullish energy in the Australian Dollar, as bets on an RBA rate hike may strengthen in response to the strong price data. As of Friday, cash rate futures indicated a low probability of a rate hike at the RBA's May meeting.

 

The Japanese Yen will also be under focus this week, as the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its April policy decision on Thursday. Rate traders do not anticipate a change in the benchmark rate, although they do anticipate an update to the bank's inflation targets. USD/JPY increased for a seventh straight week, owing to the BOJ's vigorous bond buying aimed at limiting rates. Last week, USD/JPY one-week risk reversals went into negative territory, indicating that options traders may be favoring some short-term Yen gains.

 

Elsewhere, the March trade balance for New Zealand will be released, which may cause some volatility in the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD declined last week as a result of the general risk-off sentiment that drove the majority of APAC currencies lower against the USD. This is despite the fact that bets for an RBNZ rate hike have firmed. The Kiwi Dollar's fall was almost certainly also a result of lower metal prices, which have been weighed down by both a stronger US Dollar and weakening demand as China's crackdown continues. 

Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD

The march bottom is clearly in focus after AUD/USD plunged this week, slicing through its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). If prices fall below 0.7162, this might spark bearish sentiment sufficiently to push prices near the critical 0.7000 level. Recently, both the MACD and RSI oscillators produced bearish signals, with a cross below their respective center lines. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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