• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
July 3, according to the minutes of the European Central Banks June meeting, officials emphasized the potential dangers to exporters posed by the appreciation of the euro. At that meeting, the ECB implemented its eighth interest rate cut. The minutes showed that the ECB believes that trade uncertainty has cast a shadow on the economic outlook of the 20 eurozone countries, especially the impact on investment. "Higher tariffs and the recent appreciation of the euro should put pressure on exports," the minutes said. The remarks emphasized that although the euros nearly 14% rise this year has helped to curb inflation, further gains could pull inflation below the 2% target and hurt the competitiveness of companies that sell products overseas. ECB Vice President Guindos previously said that it would be "troublesome" for the ECB to rise to 1.20.On July 3, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, at 16:13 local time on the 3rd, a 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near the Tokara Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a red strong earthquake alert. Since June 21, the Japan Meteorological Agency has observed more than 1,000 earthquakes of magnitude 1 or above in the area. The Japan Meteorological Agency held an emergency press conference on the 2nd in response to the recent frequent earthquakes, saying that it is currently impossible to predict when the seismic activity will end, and reminded local residents to pay attention to safety and be prepared to evacuate at any time. The Tokara Islands are located in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture and consist of 12 islands, 7 of which are inhabited.On July 3, Morgan Stanley analyst Bruna Scarica said in a report that the Bank of England may accelerate the pace or magnitude of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Scarica said that economic growth is expected to slow in the coming months due to uncertainty about possible tax increases in the autumn budget. She said the decline in economic activity may prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster than the market expects. Scarica said the Bank of Englands base rate is expected to fall to 3.25% from the current 4.25% by the end of the year.July 3, UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that the United States ability to repay its debts remains intact. UBS said it expects the U.S. House of Representatives to approve Trumps economic policy agenda, even though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $800 billion over the Houses initial version over the next decade. "But we believe that the United States still has the ability to manage its debt," UBS said. The report said the credibility of the Federal Reserve, the reserve status of the dollar, the depth and liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market, the Federal Reserves balance sheet holdings, and bank capital supervision may all help fill the deficit.European Commission: EU code of conduct to help companies implement AI rules could be in place by the end of 2025. The European Commissions commitment to AI rules remains unchanged.

AUD/JPY struggles to justify robust Australian Retail Sales, as yields approach 95.00

Daniel Rogers

Aug 29, 2022 15:06

 截屏2022-08-29 上午10.04.38.png

 

Despite Australia's July Retail Sales increase, which was released during Monday's Asian session, AUD/JPY continues to fall from a multi-day high. As the cross-currency pair approaches 95.00, it halts its drop from the daily high.

 

In spite of this, Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales grew 1.3% month-over-month in July, above 0.3% market forecasts and 0.2% previously.

 

Notably, despite the recent increase, the cross-currency pair, also known as the risk barometer, remains only marginally bid, as the market fears an economic slowdown in reaction to aggressive rate hikes by the major central banks. This disregards the recent seven basis point (bps) increase in US Treasury yields to 3.106%.

 

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), may have made similar statements over the weekend. Reuters reported that Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remarked over the weekend at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming that the central bank will likely continue its accommodating policy in Japan.

 

The underlying cause may be tied to the safe-haven character of the Japanese yen, as well as earlier dovish comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the most recent US-China confrontation. The Japanese government's willingness to increase stimulus could exert additional negative pressure on the AUD/JPY exchange rate.

 

In order to assess the short-term movements of the cross-currency pair, AUD/JPY traders should await unequivocal signals from the monetary policy authorities of Australia and Japan, in addition to keeping an eye on the recently heightened recession concerns amid rate hike fears.

 

Triple peaks near 95.75-80 tempt AUD/JPY bears, but a convincing break of a three-week-old support line, which was at 94.45 at the time of writing, is required for a bearish tilt.