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August 27th - According to the Financial Times, investors say France is replacing Italy as the focus of market concerns about the sustainability of European debt. France faces thorny budget negotiations next month and will hold presidential elections next year, with both far-left and far-right parties gaining support. For years, the yield on Italys benchmark 10-year government bonds has been significantly higher than that of France, but this summer it was lower for most of the time, as bondholders demanded higher risk compensation before buying French bonds. Investors say this reversal of historical trends signifies a major shift in market perception of the relative risks of the two countries. Rohan Khanna, head of European interest rate strategy at Barclays, said, "If you ask anyone in the market where the weak link in Europe is, most people will point to France." He added that France is facing a "perfect storm" for bond investors because "growth risk, political risk, and fiscal risk" coexist.August 27 - According to statistics released by Nepals National Disaster Risk Reduction Authority on the 27th, 165 bodies have been recovered following the flash floods that struck northern Nepal on the 26th, and 826 people remain missing.Market news: An oil refinery in Russias Volga region has ceased operations.On August 27, the National Meteorological Center continued to issue an orange typhoon warning and a yellow rainstorm warning at 10:00 AM. The Ministry of Transport raised its typhoon defense response level to Level II and maintained a Level III heavy rainfall defense response. On the morning of the 27th, the Ministry of Transport conducted point-to-point coordination with the transportation departments (commissions) of Zhejiang, Fujian, and Shanghai, as well as the maritime safety administrations of Zhejiang, Fujian, and Shanghai. The coordination required strengthening risk awareness, eliminating reliance on past experience, complacency, and wishful thinking, enhancing risk assessment and hidden danger investigation, and continuing to tighten and solidify the responsibility chain with high standards. It also stressed the need to strengthen the implementation of measures, closely monitor the typhoons path and rainfall changes, and effectively implement proactive defense measures of "response, inspection, and control," ensuring that all necessary shutdowns, closures, and evacuations are carried out to achieve the goal of "no deaths and minimal injuries," and to fully protect the safety of peoples lives and property. The Ministry of Transport will adjust the defense response level in a timely manner according to changes in weather warnings.On August 27, World Health Organization (WHO) experts said on the 26th that the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains highly active and has not yet reached its turning point. The country has reported over 5,600 confirmed cases. "We have slowed the rapid spread of the epidemic, but the curve has not yet turned," said WHO expert Belize at a live-streamed meeting of the organizations African Regional Committee. As of the 24th, the DRC had reported a total of 5,656 confirmed Ebola cases, with 2,715 deaths and 1,245 recoveries, resulting in a case fatality rate of approximately 48%.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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