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September 7th - According to the latest memory industry research from TrendForce, the overall DRAM industry revenue is projected to increase by 59.5% quarter-on-quarter to nearly US$154.73 billion in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a significant rise in Conventional DRAM contract prices. As LLM model training and AI inference stimulate demand for AI Servers, shipments of HBM3e, LPDDR5X, and high-capacity RDIMMs all grew simultaneously. Agentic AI applications are driving demand for RDIMMs of various capacity specifications. On the supply side, manufacturer inventories are at a low point, and new supply is prioritized for Server applications, resulting in a slight increase in overall DRAM bit shipments in the second quarter.On September 7th, Haitong International released a report stating that NIO (09866.HK)s third-quarter delivery guidance is 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 24.0% to 27.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 0.3% to 3.1%, basically flat compared to the second quarter; revenue guidance is RMB 33.29 billion to RMB 34.05 billion, implying an average selling price increase of approximately 2% to 3% quarter-on-quarter. Management expects the cost per vehicle in the second half of the year to increase by RMB 2,000 to 3,000 compared to the second quarter, and plans to maintain the gross margin of automobiles at approximately 18% in the third and fourth quarters, with a positive non-GAAP operating profit for the full year. However, considering the thin profit in the second quarter, the limited quarter-on-quarter sales growth in the third quarter, and the continued rise in costs, the visibility of continued profitability in the second half of the year remains low. Demand for the ES8 and ES9 is relatively stable, but the target of more than 40,000 vehicles per month in the fourth quarter still depends on the recovery of the Ledao and the increase in the Firefly model. The bank lowered its 2023 delivery forecast by 7% to 424,000 vehicles, and projected revenues of RMB 123.9 billion, RMB 155 billion, and RMB 155.2 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing a 2% decrease, a 13% increase, and a 13% increase. The target price was lowered from HKD 46.22 to HKD 32.7, while maintaining a neutral rating.On September 7th, HSBC issued a report maintaining its target price of HK$58 and buy rating for Bank of China (Hong Kong) (02388.HK). The bank stated that Bank of China (Hong Kong)s shareholder return plan has attracted the attention of most investors, and the specific details of the returns for 2027-2028 need to be reviewed later. The companys management announced a shareholder return plan of at least HK$10.5 billion for fiscal years 2026-2028 in its 2026 interim results. The bank believes that share buybacks are unlikely to be carried out when valuations are high, especially given that Bank of China (Hong Kong) is a subsidiary of a mainland state-owned bank. Bank of China (Hong Kong)s net interest income growth is stable, its growth prospects appear stable, its RMB business has advantages, and its wealth and insurance businesses remain strong.Russian authorities in Belgorod say a Ukrainian drone strike in the region killed one person and injured another.A Qatari official said: "We need our partners and allies, but we cannot rely on them alone to ensure our security."

AUD / JPY Nears 92.00 on Stronger-Than-Expected Aussie Retail Sales

Daniel Rogers

Feb 28, 2023 11:41

AUD:JPY.png 

 

The AUD / JPY has approached the immediate resistance level of 92.00 as the Australian Bureau of Statistics published Retail Sales (January) data that was better than expected. The 1.9% GDP growth rate was better than expected, coming in at 1.5%. In December, retail sales decreased by 3.9%.

 

At a moment when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and other policymakers are formulating a strategy to reduce inflationary pressures, encouraging data on retail demand will only make matters worse. Australian inflation has not yet hit its highest level despite the RBA raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.35 percent. The RBA's policy tightening cycle is not expected to come to a stop any time soon given the lack of data suggesting a slowdown in overall demand.

 

On Wednesday, when Australia's GDP and CPI are published, the cross will surge.

 

The fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to increase by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the third quarter. On an annualized measure, Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7%, up from 5.9% in the previous report.

 

The January CPI is expected to fall to 7.9% from 8.4%, in addition to the Australian GDP figures. RBA Governor Philip Lowe and other policymakers who are worried about Australia's persistent inflation will find relief from a reduction in monthly inflationary pressures.

 

The surprisingly dovish tone of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda is affecting the value of the Japanese Yen. From the perspective of BoJ Ueda, Japan's multi-decade high inflation is suitable to continue the expansionary policy to stimulate wages and domestic demand as a result of external forces.

 

Japan's yearly Retail Trade (Jan) increased to 6.3% from 4.0% and 3.8% in early Asia. The Japanese Yuan, however, was unable to benefit.