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On February 24, Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that Ideal Auto (02015.HK) delivered 159,000 new energy passenger vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%. However, due to the lack of new models, the companys market share in the mainlands new energy vehicle retail market has dropped from 5% in the third quarter of 2024 to 4.1%. The bank expects the companys total revenue in the fourth quarter to be RMB 44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%. Among them, automobile revenue will increase by 4% year-on-year to RMB 42 billion; the average selling price will fall by 13% year-on-year to RMB 266,000. At the same time, the total gross profit during the period is expected to be RMB 9.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; the gross profit margin is 22%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The bank raised its net profit forecast for the company in 2024 by 10% due to better cost management, and lowered its net profit forecast for this year and next year by 4% to 6% due to lower sales and delivery volumes. The bank raised the companys H-share target price from HK$131 to HK$137 and maintained its buy rating.On February 24, Goldman Sachs published a report stating that NIO (09866.HK) delivered 73,000 new energy vehicles in the last quarter of last year, up 45% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter. The companys market share in new energy vehicles in the mainland shrank from 2% in the third quarter of last year to 1.9% in the last quarter. The bank expects NIOs revenue to increase by 17% year-on-year to RMB 20 billion. Due to the increase in the sales proportion of Ledao L60, the bank expects NIOs automotive business to have a lower gross profit margin in the last quarter; but due to economies of scale and cooperation with partners, the gross profit margin of the battery replacement business is expected to improve. The bank expects NIO to have an EBIT loss of RMB 6 billion in the last quarter; non-GAAP net loss is expected to be RMB 4.9 billion. To reflect the latest sales and pricing trends, the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for this year and next year are reduced by 2% and 1% respectively, and the valuation basis is extended for one year. The target price of Hong Kong stocks is raised from HK$27 to HK$30, and the rating is sold.On February 24, according to the Financial Times, ECB board member Wensch said that the ECB faces the risk of unknowingly cutting interest rates too much and needs to be prepared to stop cutting interest rates as soon as possible. The market generally expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2% by the end of the year due to signs of weak economic growth in Europe. Wensch said, I am not pleading for a pause in interest rate cuts in April, but we must not raise interest rates to 2% without thinking. Let us keep it open, and if the data proves that further interest rate cuts are justified, the ECB will cut interest rates; otherwise, we may have to suspend interest rate cuts. Schnabel, an influential member of the six-member ECB Executive Board, also hinted that the ECB may have almost completed the interest rate cut by cutting the deposit rate from 4% to 2.75% since June.Samsung Electronics Union: Samsung Electronics management and the union reached an agreement on a 5.1% salary increase.According to the Financial Times: ECB board member Martin Luther King said he was "relatively comfortable" with market expectations of interest rates around 2% at the end of the year, "with a fluctuation of 50 basis points".

AUD / JPY Falls Below 91.50 Despite RBA Rate Increase Prospects

Alina Haynes

Mar 07, 2023 13:41

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The AUD / JPY pair has moved its auction below 91.50 during the early Asian session. The risk barometer is confronting offers while attempting a recovery, and it is anticipated that its decline will continue to around 91.30. Despite increasing likelihood of a hawkish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the cross shows no signs of recovery (RBA).

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a significant deceleration, but not enough for the RBA to suspend its policy tightening.

 

GDP increased by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, which was less than the consensus estimate of 0.8% and the previous release of 0.7%.

 

Analysts at SocGen believe that "recent signals in the macroeconomic data, such as the decline in inflation, the revival in the unemployment rate, relatively tepid wage growth, and the confirmation of a decline in consumption, all support a 25 basis point increase in March." Despite the markets' more pessimistic view of US Fed policy, they sustain our baseline scenario of a terminal policy rate of 3.85%.

 

, The annualized GDP data indicate that the Japanese economy has expanded by 0.8%, which is 0.8% more than the previous expansion of 0.6%. While it is expected that the quarterly statistics will show a steady growth of0.2%, it is anticipated that the yearly growth rate will be 0.4%.