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On July 2nd, Evercore ISI stated, "Employment data has returned to normal, and the Fed will remain focused on inflation." Economists believe the Fed will view the weak June employment data as a return to normal levels after several months of unexpectedly strong hiring growth. They stated, "Some believe this report significantly reduces the likelihood of a rate hike this year. We dont entirely agree with that view." Santander analyst Stephen Stanley echoed this sentiment. He stated, "Inflation data will determine the Feds course of action." He believes the June employment report may "slightly" alter the views of Fed officials, but he expects most policymakers to still view the labor market as stable. "There has been a considerable overreaction in financial markets, including downgrading the likelihood of a rate hike this year. I think the latter is an inappropriate reaction to this report."July 2nd - A source familiar with the matter stated that Kuwaits crude oil production rose to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, far exceeding the May average of 578,000 barrels per day. The source added that in the last 10 days of June, daily production reached as high as 1.9 million barrels.On Thursday, July 2nd, the German DAX 30 index closed up 529.08 points, or 2.11%, at 25,598.19; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 181.73 points, or 1.73%, at 10,660.07; the French CAC 40 index closed up 137.57 points, or 1.65%, at 8,474.86; the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 84.55 points, or 1.35%, at 6,367.05; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 277.54 points, or 1.43%, at 19,684.14; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 847.94 points, or 1.64%, at 52,452.50.July 2nd, Futures News: According to foreign media reports: 1. Industry Expectations: Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corp, a top US natural gas producer, stated that natural gas is expected to cross the threshold in the coming years, significantly outpacing oil by 2030, thus ending oils dominance since 1950. 2. Energy Consumption and Demand Comparison: A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that natural gas will account for 36% of US energy consumption in 2025, just slightly lower than oils 37%. The EIA projects that between 2025 and 2027, US oil demand will rise by 0.6%, while natural gas demand will grow significantly by 3.4%, further narrowing the gap. 3. Power Generation and Coal Replacement: EIA data shows that over 40% of the electricity in the US power grid comes from natural gas-fired power plants. From 2011 to 2020, over 100 coal-fired power plants were replaced or retrofitted with natural gas generators. 4. LNG and New Energy Data: Shell predicts that by 2035, US feedstock gas used in LNG plants will account for 23% of total US natural gas production. In addition, EIA data shows that from 2015 to 2025, the use of wind and solar energy will more than triple, while the use of natural gas will increase by 23%.US Treasury auction for the 8 weeks ending July 2 - bid-to-cover ratio 2.7, previous value 2.79.

A weakening dollar and low U.S. diesel inventories lifted crude oil

Skylar Williams

Oct 14, 2022 15:08

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As Saudi Arabia and the US disagreed over OPEC+'s output cuts, oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday, supported by a weaker currency and dropping diesel supplies.


Brent crude prices rose 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $94.86 a barrel by 02:42 GMT, while WTI crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.35 %, to $89.42.


Both contracts dropped almost 3% after two weeks of rises owing to recession fears.


"The weaker U.S. dollar and the significant rebound in risk assets helped oil prices," said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. Dollar-denominated commodities like oil are cheaper for non-dollar holders when the dollar weakens.


"OPEC+'s output cut will continue to underpin oil prices, paired with a possible rise in China's demand in the fourth quarter if Beijing removes COVID limitations," Teng said.


China, the world's largest crude oil importer, is fighting a COVID recovery following its week-long National Day holiday earlier this month and before a pivotal Communist Party Congress when President Xi Jinping is expected to extend his reign. The country has a zero-COVID policy despite a low infection rate.


Saudi Arabia and the US opposed last week's OPEC+ plan to cut oil supply. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, called Washington's concerns "not based on facts" and said that delaying the cut by one month would have hurt the economy.


The White House claims that the Saudis pressured other OPEC members to vote in their favor after receiving research showing that the reductions could hurt the global economy. Both nations' officials will meet soon.


Oil prices were also buoyed by a strong fall in distillate inventories as heating oil demand is predicted to surge as winter approaches.


Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.9 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels, their lowest level since May, compared to estimates of a 2 million-barrel decline.


US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose more than expected. In the week ending October 7, the EIA reported a 9.9 million-barrel increase in oil stockpiles to 439.1 million, significantly exceeding the 1.8 million projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. [EIA/S]


"The market ignored a 10-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories last week and instead focused on a 4.9-million-barrel decline in distillate inventories ahead of heating demand," said ANZ Research in a Friday note, adding that OPEC+'s oil output cut and Russian oil sanctions "create a perfect backdrop for volatile prices."