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On January 15, CICC Research Report stated that under the neutral scenario, due to the huge amount of gold reserves that Asian central banks need to replenish, and the more complicated global situation after Trump took office, and the declining credibility of the US dollar system, we expect the central banks gold purchase speed to at least remain the same, that is, to maintain at around 1,000 tons/year. For US debt, we use the forecast results of the US Federal Budget Committee (CRFB) under the baseline scenario, and the US fiscal deficit will increase by about US$7.5 trillion in the next 10 years. We also assume that Trump will not cause inflation to get out of control, and CPI will stabilize at 3% in the future, fitting the gold price to rise to US$3,300/ounce in the next decade. Under the aggressive scenario, it is assumed that the Asian central bank wants to replenish its gold reserves faster and accelerate gold purchases to 1,500 tons/year (the central banks gold purchases too quickly may raise the gold price and increase the cost of gold purchases. We do not make excessive assumptions about the pace of central bank gold purchases). In terms of fiscal policy, we assume that Trump will significantly expand fiscal policy, reaching the upper limit of CRFBs forecast, that is, an additional increase of about $15 trillion in the US fiscal deficit. At the same time, we adopt PIIEs forecast of the inflation path for Trumps impact, that is, inflation will first rise to 9% and then drop to 3%, and calculate that the value center of gold in the next ten years will rise to $5,000/ounce. CICC recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold, moderately downplaying the short-term trading value of gold, and focusing on the long-term allocation value of gold.Japans broad money liquidity annual rate was 3.7% in December, compared with 3.2% in the previous month.Japans M3 money supply annual rate in December was 0.8%, compared with 0.70% in the previous month.Japans M2 money supply annual rate in December was 1.3%, compared with 1.20% in the previous month.South Koreas unemployment rate was 3.7% in December, in line with expectations of 2.9% and the previous value of 2.70%.

A Matter Of When Not If For Spot Bitcoin ETF – Grayscale CEO

Skylar Shaw

Apr 19, 2022 10:53

In a recent interview, Grayscale Investments' CEO said that a bitcoin spot ETF is "a question of when, not if."


Grayscale is waiting to hear back from the Securities and Exchange Commission on its request to transform Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a bitcoin ETF.


Despite widespread desire, crypto exchange laws may not be implemented until 2023.

A Matter Of When Not If

In a recent interview with CNBC, Grayscale Investments CEO Michael Sonnenshein said, "It truly is a question of when, not if there is a (US-based) bitcoin spot ETF."


The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted a new bitcoin futures ETF, which was filed under the Securities Act of 1993 rather than the Securities Exchange Act of 1940, unlike earlier bitcoin futures ETF applications.


As a consequence, crypto experts claim that the form of this new ETF paves the way for the adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, an investment product that the crypto community has long pushed for.


Despite receiving clearance in countries including Canada and Brazil, the SEC has so far rejected all applications for a spot bitcoin ETF, citing worries about manipulation and fraud.


"From the SEC's standpoint, there were several protections that (19)40 Act products have that (19)33 products don't have," Grayscale Investments CEO Sonnenshein said, "but those protections never ever addressed the SEC's concern over the underlying bitcoin market and the potential for fraud or manipulation."


"The fact that they've now altered their thinking and authorized a 33 Act product with Teucrium really invalidates that argument and speaks to the connectivity between bitcoin futures and the underlying bitcoin spot markets that provide the futures contracts with their value," Sonnenshein concluded.


"If the SEC can't look at two similar concerns, the futures ETF and the spot ETF, through the same lens," he concluded, "then there might be grounds for an Administrative Procedure Act violation."


Grayscale is waiting for the SEC's examination of its request to transform Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a bitcoin ETF to be completed. The SEC is expected to respond in early July.


The CEO of the business has been a prominent critic of the SEC's delayed and hesitant approach to approving a spot bitcoin ETF.

Lack Of Crypto Exchange Regulation A Problem

Last week, a crypto expert writing for CoinDesk expressed skepticism about the chance of a bitcoin ETF being approved in the near future.


They said that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has voiced concerns about the unregulated nature of crypto spot exchanges in the United States (at the federal level). Meanwhile, the SEC has said in previous ETF rejections that the exchanges pushing crypto ETFs have not yet adequately addressed concerns about manipulation and fraud.


They said, "It is probable (to me) that the agency will continue to reject spot ETF applications, at least for the foreseeable future."


This viewpoint is consistent with a recent argument made by Bloomberg Intelligence experts. Given a potential rule change that would bring cryptocurrency exchanges into the regulatory fold, they suggest that spot bitcoin ETFs might start receiving SEC approval by mid-2023.

Investors Clamor For Bitcoin ETF

Many in the financial sector are frustrated by the SEC's refusal to approve a bitcoin ETF.


In a poll conducted by 2022 Bitwise/ETF Trends earlier this year, 82 percent of advisers stated they would prefer to invest in a spot bitcoin ETF over a futures-based bitcoin ETF.


Similarly, a recent Nasdaq poll of 500 financial advisers indicated that 72 percent of them would be more comfortable investing in crypto if there was a spot ETF.


The approval of the first US-based spot bitcoin ETF, according to crypto experts, would be a major step toward greater institutional acceptance of the asset class.

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