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The U.S. State Department announced a significant expansion of an existing visa restriction policy that targets individuals working for U.S. adversaries. Measures have been taken to impose visa restrictions on 26 individuals in the hemisphere engaged in related activities.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $158 million from five counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.On April 17th, former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on the US government to develop contingency plans to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasury bonds. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson stated, "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted, short-term, and prepared in advance, ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson said that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to fail, its nature would be different from the financial crisis he dealt with two decades ago. "Back then, the situation was already bad, but the government still had fiscal space to deal with the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, reaching a tipping point, and when trying to issue Treasury bonds, only the Federal Reserve is a buyer, while Treasury bond prices fall and interest rates rise, it will be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "vicious cycle": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, pushing up government interest payments and further widening the fiscal deficit. In extreme cases, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will have to intervene as an emergency buyer. Paulson stated, "If it happens, the impact will be very severe, so we must prepare for that possibility."On April 17, CNBC reported that U.S. Federal Judge Richard Leon issued a revised order on Thursday prohibiting the Trump administration from carrying out above-ground construction on the controversial White House banquet hall project, but allowing the government to continue underground construction, including works related to national security facilities. According to the injunction issued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the judge also allowed “strictly necessary” above-ground construction to cover, reinforce, and protect these national security facilities, provided that such construction does not “lock down the floor size and volume of the banquet hall.” The order was issued five days after the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Circuit asked Leon to clarify its March 31 ruling, which prohibited the Trump administration from proceeding with the planned $400 million, 90,000-square-foot banquet hall construction project. The appeals court specifically asked Leon to reconsider the potential national security implications of the construction ban. The administration had told the appeals court that the ban “poses a serious national security risk to the White House, the President and his family, and presidential staff.”ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB must maintain flexibility in its choices and cannot make any commitments at this time.

Volatility subsides around 101.80 as focus shifts to US S&P PMI in US Dollar Index Price Analysis

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 14:03

US Dollar Index.png 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has prolonged its correction after falling below immediate support at 101.80 during the Asian session. Following the release of more-than-anticipated Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 14 and a lackluster Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (April), the USD Index fluctuated erratically on Thursday.

 

The US Department of Labor reported that unemployment claims exceeded expectations for the eleventh consecutive week. The economic data revealed that 245K unemployed people filed for unemployment benefits, exceeding both the consensus estimate and the previous figure of 240K.

 

Due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to increase interest rates, labor market conditions are undeniably and persistently deteriorating. Despite this, the market continues to anticipate a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. According to CME Fedwatch, over 85 percent of probabilities favor interest rates above 5 percent.

 

In the interim, three consecutive bearish trading sessions on the S&P 500 suggest that investors have supported the risk aversion theme. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped below 3.54 percent. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers

 

On a two-hour time frame, the USD Index is consolidating in a wide range between 101.63 and 102.23, indicating the absence of a significant catalyst. After the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States, a power-pack action is anticipated. It is anticipated that the Manufacturing PMI will register 49.0, a decrease from the previous release of 49.9. The Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.5 from the previously reported 52.6.

 

At 101.85, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) intersects with the asset price, indicating a significant decrease in volatility.

 

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating that investors are waiting for a decisive catalyst.

 

If the asset breaks decisively above the April 17 high of 102.23, investors will push the asset toward the April 10 and March 24 potential resistance levels of 102.76 and 103.36, respectively.

 

Alternately, a breach of the April 5 low of 101.41 would cause the asset to decline to the April 14 low of 100.78. A subsequent decline will reveal psychological support of $100 for the asset.