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Futures news on May 9: 1. The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 918,368 lots, an increase of 41,059 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,974,970 lots, an increase of 10,816 lots from the previous trading day. 2. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 205,738 lots, an increase of 7,016 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 185,456 lots, an increase of 4,757 lots from the previous trading day. 3. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 496,937 lots, a decrease of 46,740 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,515,774 lots, an increase of 4,492 lots from the previous trading day.On May 9, Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that although the price of Ideal Autos (02015.HK) new L series has not been adjusted, the configuration has been significantly upgraded, which is in line with market expectations overall. However, the market is still discussing whether it is enough to cope with the fierce market competition only through the configuration and autonomous driving (AD) upgrade of the new L series without adjusting the suggested retail price. It remains to be seen whether monthly sales can return to the average level of about 50,000 units in the second half of the year. Morgan Stanley believes that the current market price is about less than 20 times the 2025 forecast price-to-earnings ratio, and the risk-return of the stock is attractive, especially after the release of the new L series on May 8 and the launch of the BEV model this summer. Although weak first-quarter results may become a pressure in the short term, the market has made reasonable expectations for this.On May 9, HSBC Research published a report, expecting Xiaomi (01810.HK) to perform better than expected in the first quarter of this year, with net profit expected to increase 1.39 times year-on-year to RMB 10 billion, mainly driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in IoT revenue, strong electric vehicle sales, and improved profit margins of various businesses. The bank expects the gross profit margins of IoT and electric vehicles to increase from 20.5% and 20.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 23% and 21.4% in the first quarter of this year, respectively, mainly due to higher pricing power and optimized product portfolio. The bank raised Xiaomis target price from HK$70.4 to HK$73.5, maintaining a buy rating; and raised net profit forecasts for 2025 to 27 by 7%, 4% and 4% respectively. It is expected that orders for the electric car SU7 in May will normalize to more than 30,000 units, compared with a peak of 80,000 units in March, and believes that the YU7, which will be launched in June, will boost electric vehicle sales in the third quarter of this year.On May 9, Nomura issued a report stating that Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) reiterated its neutral rating and raised its target price by 116% from HK$16.4 to HK$35.4 due to strong local demand. However, although the groups pricing conditions have improved, the fixed cost burden may still exist, so the neutral rating is maintained. The report stated that Hua Hong Groups first-quarter revenue was in line with its guidance target, and the gross profit margin of 9.2% was lower than expected. Nomura believed that this may be due to the depreciation of the new plant. Due to the continued demand momentum, management predicts that the second-quarter revenue will increase by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter. Although Hua Hong Semiconductor believes that the price of 8-inch wafer foundry is under pressure (no price reduction yet), due to the shortage of supply, the price of 12-inch wafer foundry is expected to continue to rise. Nomura also believes that this is a good sign for the overall price dynamics of mature node wafer foundry in Asia.On May 9, Swedens Nordic Bank pointed out that the Federal Reserve is waiting for more clarity as risks rise. Both trade policy and the economic outlook are seen as extremely uncertain, and the Federal Reserve wants to wait for clearer results. The market interpreted this information as slightly hawkish and further reduced the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting. We agree with this change in the market, but expect the Federal Reserve to ultimately focus on supporting economic growth and ignore the temporary rise in inflation. If long-term inflation expectations remain within a controllable range and consistent with the inflation target, the Federal Reserve should be able to ignore the temporary inflation shock caused by tariffs. There is also a possibility that the short-term impact of tariff uncertainty on the economy will be greater than currently expected. But for now, the Federal Reserve believes that the move will have limited impact on the economy, and there are some signs of progress in trade negotiations. Inflation is still above target and is expected to start rising again due to tariffs.

EUR/USD Is Anticipated To Fall Below 1.0950 Due To Market Optimism Regarding US Economic Prospects

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:54

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The EUR/USD pair is expected to decline drastically below the near-term support level of 1.0950 during the Asian session. The major currency pair is attracting bids as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a recovery move and surpassed the 102.00 level of resistance.

 

S&P500 futures have extended their losses during the Asian session in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to raise interest rates, which could undermine revenue guidance.

 

According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book minutes, economic activity is stable in the majority of districts. However, loans and advances to businesses and consumers have decreased due to stringent credit conditions imposed by commercial banks in the United States in order to prevent uncertainty in an unstable environment.

 

In the interim, Fed policymakers remain optimistic regarding the economic prognosis due to the labor market's tightness. As reported by Reuters, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, advocated for the continuation of the central bank's policy tightening in view of the continued strength of labor market data. A Fed official added that the demand for labor has not yet diminished and that a robust labor market results in robust consumer spending.

 

Citi Group forecasts a fourth-quarter recession in the US economy due to the constrained US labor market. Previously, it was anticipated that the United States would enter a recession during the third quarter of 2023.

 

Investors are anticipating the release of Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) data is anticipated to improve from -19.2 to -18.5. This may be the result of persistently declining inflation in the Eurozone, which reduces the burden on households.