EUR/USD
1.14672
-0.006%
Gold
4086.17
0.492%
Oil
82.961
-0.743%
USD/JPY
163.258
-0.086%
GBP/USD
1.33671
-0.007%
GBP/JPY
218.232
-0.092%
Real-time News
Samsung Electronics: System LSI business revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year.Samsung Electronics: Profits are expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year.On July 30th, Huatai Macro Research Report stated that the FOMCs decision to hold rates steady in July somewhat eroded the Feds credibility, leading to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains high. The unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting in June resulted in tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and increased Fed credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the market may have begun pricing in Warshs claim of zero tolerance for inflation as mere rhetoric. The subsequent rise in inflation expectations and long-term yields suggests that the Feds credibility may have been somewhat eroded. We reiterate our baseline forecast of a high probability of a September rate hike, 1-2 rate hikes this year, and 2 rate hikes before mid-next year. The risks remain: ① Warsh may have been merely bluffing; ② The AI boom may abruptly end, leading to tighter financial conditions and making a rate hike unnecessary. Pay attention to the July-August employment/inflation data and Warshs Jackson Hole speech on August 27th.Samsung Electronics reported a net profit of 71.3 trillion won for the second quarter, compared to market expectations of 68.5 trillion won. The chip divisions operating profit for the second quarter was 89.2 trillion won.On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices rose nearly 7% on Wednesday. As large-scale airstrikes reignited in the Middle East, market hopes for an impending end to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran were dashed; meanwhile, US government data showed domestic crude oil inventories had fallen to multi-year lows, exacerbating concerns about supply reductions. UBS analyst Giovanni Staúnovo stated that the renewed military strikes in the Middle East and Iranian officials reiterating their intention to control shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz (despite a significant reduction in oil flow through the strait) further pushed up oil prices. On Wednesday, the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, accusing them of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Hours earlier, the US military announced it had successfully thwarted an Iranian raid targeting US forces in the region. Iran, in turn, stated it fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US bases in Jordan.
