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Hong Kong stocks in the new consumption sector fluctuated and weakened, with Shanghai Auntie (02589.HK) falling more than 3%, Laopu Gold (06181.HK) falling more than 2%, and Guming (01364.HK) and Mingming Very Busy (01768.HK) following suit.August 11th - According to Jiji Press, citing sources, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may consider raising interest rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, following its June rate hike, to address rising inflation risks. Japanese prices are likely to rise further due to rapid growth in demand related to artificial intelligence, a sharp depreciation of the yen, and rising oil prices. Previously, many financial market participants expected the BOJ to raise interest rates approximately every six months. However, according to the meeting summary released on Monday, some policy board members at the BOJs latest policy-making meeting held on July 30-31 indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member stated that "the pace of policy rate increases may exceed market expectations," while another member stated that the BOJ needs to "accelerate the pace of adjustment in the degree of monetary easing."On August 11th, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.0510%, and the lowest was 0.7030%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0030%, and the lowest was 0.9030%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0650%, and the lowest was 0.9000%.On August 11th, TD Securities predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would maintain its interest rate at 4.35%. This baseline scenario is largely in line with market consensus and overnight index swap pricing, which indicated a near-zero probability of a rate hike today. This means the interest rate decision itself poses very limited risk of surprise to the Australian dollar or the interest rate market. A more significant signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects the RBA to resist a significant downward revision of its inflation forecast despite weaker-than-expected cut-off mean CPI data, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook from high oil prices. This combination of "confirmation of holding rates steady" and "cautious rather than dovish forecast revisions" suggests a relatively mild market reaction. Any surprises are more likely to stem from the tone of the forecasts wording than from the rate decision itself.1. Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be a rate cut, but no earlier than the second half of 2027. 2. Commerzbank: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, and in the medium term, the RBAs next move after holding rates steady will be a rate cut. 3. MFS Investment Management: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, while reiterating its readiness to further tighten policy to address persistently high inflation. 4. Wells Fargo: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with a 25 basis point rate hike anticipated in September, followed by a gradual easing cycle in the second half of 2027. 5. IFM Investors: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with second-quarter CPI data giving the bank reason to remain cautious, but it has not locked in a rate cut as the next move. 6. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the energy cost pass-through to consumers caused by the Middle East conflict has not yet been sustained, but the bank will maintain a hawkish stance. 7. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady and continue using hawkish rhetoric. However, if the bank lowers its inflation forecast, the market will interpret this as opening the door to further easing. 8. ING: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Overall, price pressures have eased faster than the RBA anticipated, further strengthening the case for keeping rates unchanged until the end of the year. 9. TD Securities: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, the bank will not significantly lower its inflation forecast, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook due to high oil prices.

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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