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July 1st - The World Gold Council released its "2026 Global Gold Market Mid-Year Outlook" today. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold valuation framework indicates that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macroeconomy, with three main possible scenarios. At current price levels, gold prices are largely in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will all tighten policy; and US inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter, approaching 3.9%. If these conditions remain largely unchanged, gold prices may trade around $4,100/ounce this year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or interest rate expectations shift, gold is expected to resume its upward trend; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown could drive gold prices to break upwards. On the downside, a stronger dollar, larger-than-expected interest rate hikes, and a recovery in market risk appetite are the main obstacles to gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/ounce, it could trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it could trigger "buy the dip" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Raising interest rates would be a mistake.UK Maritime Trade Organization: A tanker reported that a small vessel approached it from its port aft side at a distance of 2 nautical miles. The crew is safe and the vessel is continuing its voyage.Ukrainian President Zelensky: I hope that during Irelands EU presidency, I can open up all areas of discussion in the negotiations for Ukraines accession to the EU.British Prime Minister Starmer: The £1 billion annual funding gap in defense spending has been covered by budget "spare space".

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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