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On August 21st, Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that Pop Marts (09992.HK) half-year results fell short of expectations. The bank lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2026/2027 by 22%/24%, and its target price by 4% from HK$160 to HK$153. Bank of America forecasts adjusted net profit of RMB10.65 billion for fiscal year 2026, implying a 36% year-on-year decline in the second half. The current price represents a forward P/E ratio of approximately 13 times for 2026, close to historical lows, and the compound annual growth rate of adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2028 is only in the low single digits, making the valuation seem reasonable. Therefore, the bank maintains a "neutral" rating and believes that the downside potential for the share price is limited. Key supporting factors include: 1) a share buyback plan of RMB2 billion to RMB5 billion over the next six months (equivalent to 1.1% to 2.8% of market capitalization); 2) a reduced impact of exchange rate losses in the second half of the year (exchange rate losses in the first half were approximately RMB700 million); and 3) the increase in shareholding by prominent investor Duan Yongping to 7.7%, which may provide support for market sentiment. Overall, the bank believes that the risk-reward ratio is roughly balanced between the current growth pains and the long-term prospects.The Indonesian rupiah rose to 17,690 against the US dollar, its highest level since mid-June.August 21st - According to the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Department, a tropical depression in the South China Sea is expected to linger over the northern Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait for an extended period over the next three days, gradually intensifying into a tropical storm. From August 22nd to 24th, affected by this storm, the northwestern half of Hainan Island will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas experiencing extremely heavy rain, while other areas will see moderate to heavy rain, with localized areas experiencing torrential rain. From the 22nd to the 24th, most sea areas of Hainan Province will experience gusts of 8-9 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts reaching 9-10 in the northern Beibu Gulf. Prolonged closures of shipping in the Qiongzhou Strait are possible.On August 21st, the A50 index surged in early trading on Friday, and major A-share indices also rebounded collectively, with AI-related sectors such as CPO and liquid cooling showing significant strength. Meanwhile, the South Korean stock index reversed its losses and rose sharply. The Japanese stock market also saw its losses narrow significantly. Three major positive factors emerged from overseas markets. First, US Treasury yields, which had been a concern for the market, initially fell across the board after the Asian markets opened, and the change in expectations in the US Treasury market opened Pandoras box for a weak dollar, which is beneficial for equity valuations. Second, the Korea Exchange activated the Sidecar mechanism, suspending programmatic selling on KOSDAQ. Finally, the storage industry also received a major boost. Micron Technology stated that artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the cyclical nature of the storage industry, which has historically been trapped in cycles of boom and bust.On August 21, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch filed for bankruptcy liquidation against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., citing the companys inability to repay its debts and insufficient assets to cover all liabilities. The Guangzhou Intermediate Peoples Court of Guangdong Province, after review, determined that the application met the requirements of Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the "Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the Peoples Republic of China" and ruled on August 21, 2026, to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application filed by Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd.

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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