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The Malaysian Ministry of Trade stated that the United States has not yet made a final tariff decision regarding Malaysia.June 4th - Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on Thursday that the Japanese government expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement appropriate monetary policy in close coordination to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target driven by wage growth. When asked about BOJ Governor Kazuo Uedas remarks on Wednesday, Kihara declined to comment on specific points, only stating that the government and the BOJ have maintained and will continue to maintain "full communication" on occasions such as the meeting between the BOJ governor and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month. "Specific monetary policy measures should be decided by the BOJ," Kihara said at a regular press briefing, reiterating the governments consistent stance towards the central bank.1. Strong Data Drastically Reduces Rate Cut Expectations: The US ADP nonfarm payrolls for May added 122,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, and the May ISM services PMI hit a multi-month high. The US labor market and consumer spending demonstrated remarkable resilience, significantly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the short term. 2. Tightening Fears Suppress Valuations: Strong economic fundamentals led several Fed officials to adopt a hawkish stance, exacerbating market concerns about maintaining high interest rates or even restarting rate hikes this year. This directly pushed up both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, severely suppressing the valuations of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver. 3. Unpredictable Geopolitical Situation: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile. While there have been reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues, leading to frequent sporadic conflicts. The sharp fluctuations in risk aversion have increased the two-way volatility risk in precious metals markets. 4. Industry Dynamics and Capital Outflows: Russian officials predict gold production will reach 480-500 tons in 2026, far exceeding institutional expectations, with the increased supply putting pressure on gold prices. In terms of capital flows, the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) has recently seen outflows, indicating a lack of upward momentum in the short term. 5. Platinum and Palladium End-User Demand Under Pressure: In addition to macroeconomic pressures, high oil prices and the accelerated electrification of automobiles continue to squeeze the market share of traditional gasoline vehicle catalysts, leading to significant pressure on palladium demand. The overall decline in platinum and palladium prices has exceeded that of gold and silver. 6. Zhengxin Futures View: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report reflects the resilience of the US labor market, providing more confidence for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening stance. Gold will mainly be affected by macroeconomic factors in the short term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. However, in the long term, global de-dollarization and strategic reserve demand will continue to provide strong support for gold prices. 7. Nanhua Futures View: With no easing signals on the monetary policy front and even rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals lack significant upward momentum. However, given the prolonged period of high oil prices, it is crucial to pay close attention to signs of economic slowdown. If a "stagflation trade" begins, it will become a key narrative for the next gold price increase. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.)TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Taiwan has TSMC’s best talent, core R&D and largest production base.TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Global capacity expansion is primarily driven by customer demand and local government support.

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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