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Market news: The Israeli rear is back to normal, lifting all restrictions.UOB Singapore: EUR/USD is expected to trade in a range of 1.01-1.03 in the next few weeks. On Friday, we emphasized that "the possibility of EUR/USD breaking above 1.0260 increases". However, the euro failed to break 1.0260 and fell to 1.0139 in the US session before rebounding to 1.0181 (-0.61%). The decline appears to be larger than expected, but the pair is not expected to move further lower. For today, the EUR exchange rate is likely to consolidate between 1.0135 and 1.0205. EUR would have to break 1.03 for further upside to be possible, with the upside momentum quickly dissipating as the pair fell to a low of 1.0139. Overall, the EUR does not appear to be ready to break out of the 1.01/1.03 range at this point and will need to trade within this range for a while longer.Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI): India saw inflows of INR 89 billion in equity funds and INR 49.3 billion in bond funds in July.[Market] The price of electricity delivered in Germany in the next year rose 1.8% year-on-year to a record 414 euros/MWh.ING: Further bearish on EUR/USD We are now downgrading our EUR/USD forecast, which will be more in line with our rate strategy teams view of the EUR/US 2-year swap spread. The negative impact of the Eurozone/U.S. two-year maturity spread on EUR/USD is expected to continue into the end of the year, as the Fed is expected to start easing policy only in the first quarter of 2023. From a combination of macro levels, monetary policy, valuations and geopolitics, now seems like an opportune time to lower the EUR/USD forecast curve by 4-5%.

Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Data; Energy Stocks Drop 3.6% on Oil Price Decline

Skylar Shaw

Aug 05, 2022 15:39


Indices Are Mixed, and Energy Stocks Are Hurt Due to the Declining Oil Price

On Thursday, the major US stock indexes were uneven, with the Nasdaq 100 index rising 0.44 percent to new highs over 13,300 since early May, the S&P 500 maintaining flat at 4,150, and the Dow falling 0.26 percent to close to 32,725 points. A near 6.0 percent increase in Advanced Micro Devices and a more than 2.0 percent increase in Amazon's share price were the main drivers of Nasdaq 100 outperformance. While this was happening, Walmart's near 4% decline and Chevron's almost 3% decline weighed on the Dow.

Chevron was hardly the only US oil company to suffer; in fact. Exxon Mobil had a decrease of almost 4.0 percent, while the S&P 500 Energy GICS sector as a whole lost 3.6 percent. This was due to additional drops in the world's oil markets and a dimming demand forecast. WTI dropped to below $90 per barrel, its lowest point since February 2014, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The price of Coinbase Global's stock increased by 10% at the close of business on Thursday as a result of the announcement that global asset management firm Blackrock would provide its customers with access to cryptocurrency trading services via Coinbase's institutional platform, Coinbase Prime. Shares of COIN had increased by as much as 44% throughout the day at one point.

Investor Attention Turns to the NFP Data on Friday

Wall Street was neutral on Thursday, but none of the main indexes experienced significant swings outside of previous levels due to investors' caution ahead of the Friday publication of important US job market data. The assumption that US inflation has peaked and the notion that the labor market is now weakening as the US economy slows are just two emerging economic storylines that recent data has shown are forming.

The second of these two storylines was in fact strengthened on Thursday by new data showing an increase in US weekly unemployment claims, perhaps putting pressure on the US currency and US rates. Traders will consider Friday's data in light of how it contributes to these stories. It may be more confident in a less aggressive Fed tightening forecast if the pace of job increases slows from June's 372,000 and the pace of average hourly wage growth moderates from June's 5.1 percent YoY.

Given that the battle against inflation is far from being won, Fed officials have been careful this week to caution the markets not to get ahead of themselves by betting on rate decreases in 2023. The Fed's Loretta Mester signaled that the bank is open to another 75 basis point rate rise in September, depending on the data, and said that the Fed would need to see many months of inflation drifting down before the central bank would take its foot off the throttle in terms of tightening.