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On August 26, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to address rising fiscal risks, stating that "all countries need to address their own fiscal problems and develop and publish credible plans to ensure debt and deficits are on a sustainable track." She also called on central banks to "focus heavily on their price stability mandate." Georgieva noted that the global economy is under pressure from high inflation and trade tensions, but growth from AI investment has partially offset the shocks. However, rising bond yields and stalled inflation indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook. She stated that the energy shock triggered by the Iran war is not yet over, and the global economy is facing a tug-of-war between "negative supply shocks from the Middle East" and "positive demand shocks from AI." She also warned that energy supply, El Niño weather, and the impact of AI on financial stability remain major risks.British Chancellor of the Exchequer: Supports US efforts to promote a diplomatic solution and welcomes increased pressure on Iran through means such as "economic isolation".British Chancellor of the Exchequer: (Regarding sanctions against Iran) He called on Iran to cease its disruptive activities in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz.On August 26th, the minutes of the Federal Reserves July discount rate meeting revealed that 10 regional Federal Reserve banks requested that the current main lending rate be maintained, while 2 regional Federal Reserve banks requested an interest rate hike. The Cleveland Fed and the Minneapolis Fed had voted to raise the main lending rate from 3.75% to 4%. The minutes show that the Federal Reserve Board ultimately approved maintaining the main lending rate at 3.75% and continuing to use the formula for calculating subprime and seasonal lending rates. Several Fed directors stated that the overall economic situation was stable, but some directors mentioned that inflation remained high, consumers were increasingly focused on prices, and fuel prices and surcharges were driven up by global events.According to Nikkei: Japan is seeking to fund the rare earth mining industry with long-term technological support.

Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Data; Energy Stocks Drop 3.6% on Oil Price Decline

Skylar Shaw

Aug 05, 2022 15:39

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Indices Are Mixed, and Energy Stocks Are Hurt Due to the Declining Oil Price

On Thursday, the major US stock indexes were uneven, with the Nasdaq 100 index rising 0.44 percent to new highs over 13,300 since early May, the S&P 500 maintaining flat at 4,150, and the Dow falling 0.26 percent to close to 32,725 points. A near 6.0 percent increase in Advanced Micro Devices and a more than 2.0 percent increase in Amazon's share price were the main drivers of Nasdaq 100 outperformance. While this was happening, Walmart's near 4% decline and Chevron's almost 3% decline weighed on the Dow.


Chevron was hardly the only US oil company to suffer; in fact. Exxon Mobil had a decrease of almost 4.0 percent, while the S&P 500 Energy GICS sector as a whole lost 3.6 percent. This was due to additional drops in the world's oil markets and a dimming demand forecast. WTI dropped to below $90 per barrel, its lowest point since February 2014, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.


The price of Coinbase Global's stock increased by 10% at the close of business on Thursday as a result of the announcement that global asset management firm Blackrock would provide its customers with access to cryptocurrency trading services via Coinbase's institutional platform, Coinbase Prime. Shares of COIN had increased by as much as 44% throughout the day at one point.

Investor Attention Turns to the NFP Data on Friday

Wall Street was neutral on Thursday, but none of the main indexes experienced significant swings outside of previous levels due to investors' caution ahead of the Friday publication of important US job market data. The assumption that US inflation has peaked and the notion that the labor market is now weakening as the US economy slows are just two emerging economic storylines that recent data has shown are forming.


The second of these two storylines was in fact strengthened on Thursday by new data showing an increase in US weekly unemployment claims, perhaps putting pressure on the US currency and US rates. Traders will consider Friday's data in light of how it contributes to these stories. It may be more confident in a less aggressive Fed tightening forecast if the pace of job increases slows from June's 372,000 and the pace of average hourly wage growth moderates from June's 5.1 percent YoY.


Given that the battle against inflation is far from being won, Fed officials have been careful this week to caution the markets not to get ahead of themselves by betting on rate decreases in 2023. The Fed's Loretta Mester signaled that the bank is open to another 75 basis point rate rise in September, depending on the data, and said that the Fed would need to see many months of inflation drifting down before the central bank would take its foot off the throttle in terms of tightening.

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