This Winter, NERC Predicts A U.S. Power Shortage

Thursday, the organization responsible for the integrity of U.S. power infrastructure announced that a large portion of North America is at risk of insufficient electricity supply under peak winter conditions.

In a webcast of its 2022-2023 Winter Reliability Assessment, the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC) stated that these reliability concerns stem from higher peak demand projections, generator retirements, generator vulnerability to extreme weather, and fuel supply and natural gas infrastructure constraints.

In Texas, NERC predicts that power demand will increase by more than 7 percent compared to the previous winter, resulting in reduced reserve margins, noting that generators and fuel supplies are still at risk from extreme and prolonged cold, such as the Texas freeze of February 2021, when the state's grid operator imposed rotating power outages.

According to NERC, the absence of linkages with other areas inhibits Texas' ability to import power from other regions in the case of problems.

In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) area in the Midwest of the United States, NERC revealed that reserve margins have declined by more than 5 percent since last winter as retired generation surpassed replacement capacity.

"Energy emergencies are possible under extreme conditions," NERC stated of MISO, adding that the operation of wind generators will be a crucial element this winter.

NERC warned that the amount of oil stockpiled in New England's power facilities was only about 40% of capacity.

Mark Olson, manager of reliability evaluations at NERC, noted on a webcast, "We strongly encourage generators to refill their tanks."

In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the combination of low oil stockpiles and record high global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) poses a threat to fuel supplies in the six-state New England region, according to NERC.

Jim Matheson, chief executive officer of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, stated that grid reliability has deteriorated in recent years due to the closure of power plants and other measures that have reduced the nation's electricity supply as it transitions to low-carbon energy sources.

Matheson, whose organization represents over 900 private electric cooperatives serving about 42 million people in all but three U.S. states, added, "We must be exceedingly careful as a nation, and possibly particular regions more so than others."

Matheson continued, "However, I believe this problem occurs everywhere when capacity is taken offline without being replaced in an acceptable or predictable manner."