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Real-time News
August 11th - According to Jiji Press, citing sources, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may consider raising interest rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, following its June rate hike, to address rising inflation risks. Japanese prices are likely to rise further due to rapid growth in demand related to artificial intelligence, a sharp depreciation of the yen, and rising oil prices. Previously, many financial market participants expected the BOJ to raise interest rates approximately every six months. However, according to the meeting summary released on Monday, some policy board members at the BOJs latest policy-making meeting held on July 30-31 indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member stated that "the pace of policy rate increases may exceed market expectations," while another member stated that the BOJ needs to "accelerate the pace of adjustment in the degree of monetary easing."On August 11th, TD Securities predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would maintain its interest rate at 4.35%. This baseline scenario is largely in line with market consensus and overnight index swap pricing, which indicated a near-zero probability of a rate hike today. This means the interest rate decision itself poses very limited risk of surprise to the Australian dollar or the interest rate market. A more significant signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects the RBA to resist a significant downward revision of its inflation forecast despite weaker-than-expected cut-off mean CPI data, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook from high oil prices. This combination of "confirmation of holding rates steady" and "cautious rather than dovish forecast revisions" suggests a relatively mild market reaction. Any surprises are more likely to stem from the tone of the forecasts wording than from the rate decision itself.1. Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be a rate cut, but no earlier than the second half of 2027. 2. Commerzbank: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, and in the medium term, the RBAs next move after holding rates steady will be a rate cut. 3. MFS Investment Management: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, while reiterating its readiness to further tighten policy to address persistently high inflation. 4. Wells Fargo: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with a 25 basis point rate hike anticipated in September, followed by a gradual easing cycle in the second half of 2027. 5. IFM Investors: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with second-quarter CPI data giving the bank reason to remain cautious, but it has not locked in a rate cut as the next move. 6. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the energy cost pass-through to consumers caused by the Middle East conflict has not yet been sustained, but the bank will maintain a hawkish stance. 7. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady and continue using hawkish rhetoric. However, if the bank lowers its inflation forecast, the market will interpret this as opening the door to further easing. 8. ING: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Overall, price pressures have eased faster than the RBA anticipated, further strengthening the case for keeping rates unchanged until the end of the year. 9. TD Securities: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, the bank will not significantly lower its inflation forecast, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook due to high oil prices.Futures News, August 11th: Over the weekend, negotiations between Iran and the US failed as Iran raised its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the US found unacceptable. With the Strait remaining closed, oil prices continued to rise, with US crude oil fluctuating above $80. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Trump has also raised his demands, leading to a stalemate. Given the closure of the Strait and the reduced efficiency of tanker passage, oil prices are expected to remain relatively strong.August 11 – From July 30 to August 8, 2026, Yue Xiaoyong, Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. During his stay in Turkey, Yue Xiaoyong held consultations with Erkina, Director General of the South Asia Department of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and exchanged in-depth views on issues of common concern. During his visits to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Yue Xiaoyong exchanged views with relevant officials of both countries on promoting improved development relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
