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The Central Bank of Romania maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.50%, in line with market expectations. 1. Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) Announcement: The transaction fee for lithium carbonate futures contract LC2705 is 0.032% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing transaction fee is also 0.032% of the transaction amount. The minimum order size for each trading order is 5 lots for opening a position and 1 lot for closing a position. Non-futures company members or clients are prohibited from opening more than 400 lots per day. 2. GFE Announcement: The transaction fee for polysilicon futures contract PS2705 is 0.025% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing transaction fee is also 0.025% of the transaction amount. The minimum order size for each trading order is 5 lots for opening a position and 1 lot for closing a position. Non-futures company members or clients are prohibited from opening more than 200 lots per day. 3. Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) announced that, effective from the trading session on May 19, 2026 (i.e., the night session on May 18): The transaction fee for crude oil futures contracts sc2609, sc2610, sc2611, sc2612, sc2701, sc2702, sc2703, sc2706, sc2709, sc2712, sc2803, sc2806, sc2809, sc2812, and sc2903 will be adjusted to RMB 20 per lot, and the intraday closing transaction fee will be adjusted to RMB 60 per lot. The transaction fee for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts lu2609, lu2610, lu2611, lu2612, lu2701, lu2702, and lu2703 will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing transaction fee will be adjusted to 0.03% of the transaction amount. 4. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that pickup truck production and sales exhibit a spring-like surge, with exports performing exceptionally well in April. In April 2026, the pickup truck market sold 59,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.8%, reaching the highest monthly level in nearly five years. From January to April, sales reached 220,000 units, an increase of 6.7%. Pickup truck production in April 2026 was 59,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; from January to April, pickup truck production reached 221,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. 5. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced that, effective from the closing settlement on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, the daily price fluctuation limit for rebar futures contracts rb2606, rb2607, rb2608, rb2609, rb2610, rb2611, rb2612, rb2701, and rb2702 will be 5%, the margin requirement for hedging positions will be 6%, and the margin requirement for general positions will be 7%. The daily price fluctuation limit for hot-rolled coil futures contracts hc2606, hc2607, hc2608, hc2609, hc2610, hc2611, hc2612, hc2701, and hc2702 will also be 5%, the margin requirement for hedging positions will be 6%, and the margin requirement for general positions will be 7%. 6. According to foreign media reports, the weekly report released by the Argentine National Secretariat of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries shows that as of May 14, Argentinas soybean harvest rate for the 2025/26 season was 60%, lagging behind the 66% of the same period last year. The previous weeks harvest rate was 41%. 7. Based on summarizing practical experience, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has formulated the "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Derivatives Trading (Trial Implementation)". The "Measures" is the first departmental regulation for the derivatives industry under the supervision of the CSRC, further clarifying the main institutional rules of the derivatives market. It is of great significance for regulating derivatives trading behavior, preventing derivatives market risks, promoting the steady, healthy and orderly development of the derivatives market, and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of traders. It is also conducive to further leveraging the positive role of derivatives trading in risk management, resource allocation, and serving the real economy. The "Measures" will come into effect on November 16, 2026. 8. According to Irans Tehran Times on the 15th, the United States has rejected Irans "14-point" written proposal to end the war. The report stated that the US government has responded to the aforementioned written proposal, rejecting Tehrans proposal and "reiterating its hardline stance," especially on the nuclear issue. Irans proposal is based on a two-phase negotiation process: the first phase aims to end the war on all fronts; if Irans conditions are met, the second phase of negotiations on the nuclear issue will begin. 9. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that as of May 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (composite index) was 2140.66 points, up 186.45 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index was 1280.46 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. 10. Data from shipping survey agency ITS shows that Malaysias palm oil exports from May 1-15 were 600,175 tons, a decrease of 1.59% compared to 609,868 tons exported in the same period last month. 11. According to AmSpec, an independent Malaysian inspection agency, Malaysias palm oil exports from May 1-15 were 502,228 tons, a decrease of 16.49% compared to 601,401 tons exported in the same period last month. 12. Indonesias Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the nickel ore benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the second half of May is as follows: Nickel price is US$18,849.3/ton (an increase of US$1,047.15, or 5.88%, compared to US$17,802.14/ton in the first period of May 2026); Drilling price is US$55,854/ton; Iron ore price is US$1.58/ton; Chromium ore price is US$6.37/ton. 13. A circular released on Friday on the website of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board shows that Malaysia has lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in June, but the corresponding export tariff remains at 10%. As the worlds second-largest palm oil exporter, Malaysia calculated the reference price for June at RM4,372.64 per ton (approximately US$1,108.68). The previous reference price in May was 4,521.89 ringgit per ton, also subject to a 10% tariff. 14. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 15th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran does not seek to develop nuclear weapons, and the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman. (Xinhua) 15. Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which pointed out that it is necessary to implement key tasks of urban renewal, cultivate and strengthen new drivers of urban development, create high-quality urban living spaces, enhance urban safety and resilience, and improve urban governance capabilities. It is necessary to follow the laws of development and adapt to local conditions to improve comprehensive agricultural production capacity and continuously consolidate and expand the achievements in poverty alleviation. It is necessary to accelerate the construction of a fertility-friendly society, strengthen fertility service guarantees, improve infant and toddler care services, and improve the comprehensive family support policy system.On May 15, it was reported that Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), will attend the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Board of Governors meeting via video link on May 12, 2026. He will engage in in-depth discussions with Board members on topics such as the development of global capital markets, the resilience of capital market operations under new technological environments, and reforms to the IOSCO working mechanism. Liu Haoling, Vice Chairman of the CSRC, also participated in the meeting.Italys FTSE MIB index fell by 2.00% during the day.On May 15th, Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister stated in a report that the pound may weaken further against the euro in the coming weeks due to rising political uncertainty in the UK and fiscal concerns stemming from a potential internal party challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He pointed out that political uncertainty "rarely benefits a countrys currency," and it remains unclear what policies a potential successor would pursue if Starmer were replaced. Pfister noted that the UKs November budget included measures to reduce the fiscal deficit, "but the new prime minister may have different ideas, which will reignite market concerns about fiscal issues."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.