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According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea will implement zero tariffs on liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in order to combat inflation.On June 18th, Chaos Tiancheng Futures reported that the Federal Reserves June interest rate meeting caused significant market volatility. The overall meeting and statement clearly shifted towards a hawkish stance, while Warshs relatively neutral remarks exacerbated market fluctuations. Subsequently, US President Trump stated that the Fed would maintain interest rates unchanged, which was fine. (Regarding the possibility of a Fed rate hike) This could happen. After the meeting, market expectations for a rate hike rose, and the US dollar index surged, surpassing the 100 mark. Currently, for precious metals, although the meeting showed a hawkish bias and rate hike expectations rose, the market was relatively prepared and anticipated. The decline was completed in the short term, but this mornings news of the US-Iran memorandum led to a recovery of half of the decline, effectively ending short-term trading opportunities. Further developments still require observation of the driving forces, most importantly geopolitical tensions. Given the current increased market volatility, there are no clear trend conditions. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Markets remain skeptical about the prospects of a US-Iran peace agreement, but concerns about oversupply are limiting oil prices. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market crude oil prices converted between domestic and international markets.The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but predicted a rate hike this year. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market gold and silver prices, converted between domestic and international markets.On June 18th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, in line with market expectations. The biggest change at this meeting was the reform. The monetary policy statement was significantly simplified, and forward guidance was removed, aiming to reduce the Feds intervention in the market. More importantly, five working groups were established: communication, balance sheet, data, productivity and employment, and an inflation framework. This reshapes the policy framework from fundamental principles, laying the institutional groundwork for Warshs conservative and market-oriented policy approach. The balance sheet assessment was ranked second, indicating that balance sheet reduction remains a core inclination. Regarding policy this year, Warsh did not provide clear guidance, but the dot plot clearly turned hawkish: the average forecast predicts one rate hike this year, reflecting that with stable employment and high inflation, combating inflation has become the focus. We maintain our judgment that the Fed will neither raise nor lower interest rates this year, but note the increased risk of a rate hike next year. If the US economy continues to strengthen and achieve a full recovery driven by AI capital expenditure, the possibility of monetary tightening cannot be ruled out.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.

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