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On May 19th, Ryosuke Katagi, a market economist at Mizuho Securities, stated that if geopolitical risks gradually subside and oil prices return to pre-conflict levels, Japans economic growth rate may remain close to its potential. According to data from the Bank of Japan, Japans potential growth rate is estimated to be between 0.5% and 1.0%. However, Katagi pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, causing oil prices to remain above $100 per barrel, or exacerbating concerns about a shortage of petroleum products, the Japanese economy may temporarily contract. Data released on Tuesday showed that Japans real GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter.On May 19th, fossil fuel industry executives pointed out that Australia must invest in producing more natural gas to avoid a domestic supply shortage by the end of this decade. Shell Australia Chairman Wake stated, "The Middle East conflict highlights the worlds dependence on oil and gas. Our country urgently needs more natural gas." Although Australia is one of the worlds largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), its east coast is expected to face a supply gap by the end of this decade. To address this gap and protect domestic consumers from high international prices, the government this month approved the much-opposed "Domestic Gas Reserve Scheme," requiring producers to reserve one-fifth of new production for domestic use. Santos CEO Gallagher criticized the scheme, saying it would lower prices in the short term but stifle investment and supply. "Capital only flows to where it feels safe. The industry needs to attract capital back to Australia."The performance of Hong Kong-listed AI application stocks diverged, with Zhipu (02513.HK) continuing its decline with a drop of 13%, MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) falling by more than 9%, and SenseTime (00020.HK) and Paradigm Intelligence (06682.HK) following suit.On May 19th, Moodys Analytics economist Stefan Anglick stated that Japans first-quarter GDP data did not provide a clear indication of the economys future direction. He pointed out that while the growth base is broad, these frequently revised preliminary figures should not be overemphasized. Anglick wrote that the outlook for the coming quarters looks extremely grim due to soaring commodity prices caused by the Middle East conflict. US tariffs, trade tensions, and increased competition remain threats. Domestically in Japan, weak real wage growth is a major drag. He stated that moderate fiscal support for households, defense, and strategic investment should prevent the economy from derailing, but increasing headwinds foreshadow a difficult year. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again this summer, but it will be difficult to justify further rate hikes.The local governor claimed that Ukraine attacked Russias Rostov-on-Don region.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.

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