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On September 4th, Allianz Chief Advisor El-Erian stated that the latest US jobs report shows that both demand and supply in the labor market far exceeded expectations. Specifically: In terms of job creation, non-farm payrolls surged to 162,000 from an upward revision of 21,000, approximately three times the market consensus expectation. On the labor supply side, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%, exceeding expectations and reaching its highest level in nearly a year. Other key indicators included an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, in line with expectations. Overall, these indicators suggest that the US labor market remains strong, with demand remaining robust and supply stabilizing.September 4th - Analyst Jessica Coacci points out that in a labor market where both hiring and layoffs are at low levels, some Americans find it difficult to re-enter the job market once they lose their jobs. Data from Fridays employment reports household survey showed that 27% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This percentage has remained relatively stable over the past year or so.On September 4th, analyst Ben Casselman pointed out regarding the US August non-farm payroll data that the labor force participation rate (the proportion of people aged 25 to 54 who are employed or actively seeking employment) jumped to its highest level in 20 years last year, but fell sharply in June this year. Initially, the decline in June seemed like an isolated incident, but the lack of a rebound in July and August suggests that this decline may be a real trend. The rate is still at a fairly high level, higher than before the pandemic, but its performance is no longer as impressive as before.September 4th - Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data for August fueled market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, causing U.S. stock index futures to fall. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, stated, "Even the most ardent doves will find it difficult to justify keeping rates unchanged from the August jobs report. The significant increase in nonfarm payrolls was driven by a broadly strong performance in the non-healthcare private sector, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged despite a sharp rebound in the labor force participation rate." S&P 500 futures fell 17.5 points during the session.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Artificial intelligence data centers are creating new jobs in utilities.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.

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