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EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: The ceasefire in Iran is reassuring, but uncertainty remains in the region.April 8th - Following a lukewarm reception from overseas investors at several U.S. Treasury auctions last month, this weeks 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched for signs of weakening foreign demand. While Tuesdays three-year bond auction (the first of seven major U.S. government auctions in April) yielded positive results, easing concerns that the war was pushing up borrowing costs due to buyers leaving the market, doubts remain ahead of the 10-year Treasury auction at 1 p.m. ET (1 a.m. Thursday Beijing time). Data from three auctions conducted by the U.S. Treasury in the first half of March showed a decline in the share allocated to foreign accounts. Combined with Federal Reserve data showing a decrease in U.S. Treasury holdings held in custody for foreign official and international accounts since mid-February, this corroborates the view that the war has weakened overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. John Briggs, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Natixis, stated that the March auction data neither proves nor refutes this theory, as it is only a monthly auction result, but the decline in foreign custody holdings suggests that this may indeed be the case.Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos: Even if the conflict had never occurred, the likelihood of a federal funds rate cut is gradually decreasing. The labor market is performing better than expected, while PCE inflation is not declining as quickly as officials anticipated.The US 4-month Treasury auction ended April 8th with a winning yield of 3.6%, compared to 3.62% previously.On April 8, the Hatem Anbia Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces issued a statement announcing a victory in a 40-day war of resistance against the United States and Israel, and stating that it was prepared for a "more intense, longer, and more extensive war." The statement claimed that over the past 40 days, the Iranian Armed Forces struck US bases in the Middle East and key Israeli military, security, and economic targets, inflicting extremely heavy casualties and economic losses on the US and Israel, and completely seizing the initiative in the war. Ultimately, the US and Israel "yielded" and accepted the ceasefire terms proposed by Iran. This proves that Iran is capable of defeating its enemies on any level.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.