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On March 6th, UBS released a research report stating that Bilibili (BILI.O)s revenue in the fourth quarter of last year rose 8% year-on-year, exceeding the banks and market expectations by 2%. The advertising business performed particularly well, with year-on-year growth accelerating to 27%, exceeding the banks and market expectations by 3% to 4%. Gross margin expanded by 97 basis points year-on-year to 37.4%, in line with the banks and market expectations. The report noted that Bilibili repurchased $14.7 million worth of shares in the fourth quarter, with a remaining quota of $68.8 million. The bank believes the group should be able to complete the share repurchase before the expiration date in November this year. The bank expects the market to initially react positively to the strong fourth-quarter results, especially the significantly higher-than-expected advertising revenue, which the bank describes as a high-quality performance. The bank maintains its target price of $40.5 for Bilibili (BILI.O) shares and a "Buy" rating.Market news: A U.S. judge will hold a closed-door "settlement meeting" on Friday regarding the Trump tariff refund case, meeting with relevant parties.On March 6th, Nicholas Gwee, portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management, stated that Japan faces greater challenges than other countries in the region given the Middle East conflict, as Japan is a net importer of oil. He noted, "Over 90% of Japans imported crude oil comes from the Middle East, with over 60% transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan also relies on Middle Eastern supplies of liquefied natural gas and naphtha." Gwee stated that if the conflict continues, the sectors most affected include banking and financial services, aviation and transportation, shipping, energy-intensive manufacturing, refining and petrochemicals, as well as electronics and export-oriented industries. He added, "If the conflict drags on and restricts energy supplies, the Japanese stock market will continue to be under pressure."The Indian government has mandated that all refineries operating in India should maximize the production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from propane and butane fractions and supply it to IOCL, HPCL, and BPCL.On March 6th, Futures reported that gold prices rose and then fell this week. As of March 5th, the domestic 99.99% spot gold price was 1151.26 yuan/gram. The evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation has a mixed impact on gold. Firstly, the escalating geopolitical fragmentation has led to a decrease in market risk appetite, supporting gold and thus driving up precious metal prices. Meanwhile, rising oil prices may lead to increased global energy costs, which in turn will push up inflation through the supply chain. Gold, due to its natural monetary characteristics, serves as a hedge against inflation and receives price support. Secondly, this event represents Trumps move to strengthen the dollars dominance in the global oil trade system, stimulating the US dollar index and indirectly putting downward pressure on gold prices. Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook remains mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the power struggle between Trump and the Supreme Court over global tariffs and tariff refunds, US non-farm payroll and CPI data, and further developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Gold is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.

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