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On May 14th, US international trade commodity prices rose sharply in April, with import prices (market expectation +1.0%) rising 1.9% month-over-month and export prices (market expectation +1.1%) surging 3.3%. This much-anticipated increase indicates that the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to exert pressure on input costs, a point already reflected in the Feds Beige Book in early April as a compression of corporate profit margins. Core import prices (excluding fuel) had already begun to rise significantly before the Iran conflict, and this months 0.8% increase was the same as in February, but this may already include the secondary impact of rising energy prices. Food and feed prices were also significantly affected by rising oil prices, rising 1.1% in March and then another 0.9% in April. Industrial supplies and raw materials (excluding fuel) rose 1.6%; fuel prices surged 16.3%. Capital goods prices were also worrying, rising 1.1%. Consumer goods rose 0.4%, a relatively moderate increase, but still high; automobile prices fell slightly by 0.1%.On May 14th, executives from over ten well-known American companies accompanied President Trump on his visit to China, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon. In an interview, Amon stated that the Chinese economy is dynamic.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 617.40 yuan per barrel.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in the Colombian region.May 14th - Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but analysts warn that more vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals during transit. According to Lloyds List, a shipping publication, tanker owners are preparing for prolonged shipping disruptions as regional risks remain high. Current traffic volume is still far below pre-conflict levels. At that time, approximately 130 vessels carrying about 20% of the worlds oil and gas supply passed through the strait daily.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.