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Real-time News
On September 2nd, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) stated that a September rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is a foregone conclusion. The RBNZ is expected to hint at further rate hikes before the cash rate reaches or exceeds the neutral level, with a peak of approximately 3.5%. However, BNZs internal view is that the RBNZ will ultimately raise rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, reaching 4.0% by May 2027. Downside risks to the economy are more prominent, including a potential El Niño-induced recession, election-related delays in recovery, and a broader global asset price correction. On the upside, structural inflationary pressures may continue to accumulate regardless of the RBNZs response. BNZs core view stems from the RBNZs July statement that "further reduction in monetary stimulus may still be necessary" to bring inflation back to target. BNZ expects inflation to remain above the target range until mid-2027, forecasting an annual CPI of 3.7% for the September quarter, significantly higher than the RBNZs own forecast of 3.3%.September 2nd - ASB Bank of New Zealand stated that with financial markets having almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, there is limited room for a hawkish surprise in the decision itself. The ASB expects at least one more rate hike before the end of the year, with a peak rate of around 3.3%, slightly below current market pricing. If this occurs as expected, it could lead to a mildly dovish repricing at the front end of the New Zealand yield curve, putting some pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The ASB also noted that tightening financial conditions (including a stronger trade-weighted index and rising swap rates) are a theme the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cite, weakening the case for a particularly hawkish statement. Given the two-way risks to the medium-term inflation outlook, currency and interest rate markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to New Zealand data in the coming months, regardless of Wednesdays outcome.On September 2nd, Fang Jincong, Head of China Internet Research at UBS, stated at a media briefing in Shenzhen that the Chinese internet sector has fallen by approximately 20% year-to-date, with overseas investors largely returning from underweight to standard allocation, but remaining cautious about the macroeconomic environment and cash flow in the second half of the year. According to his calculations, the profit expectations of major internet companies have decreased from approximately 680 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to approximately 600 billion yuan in August, due to AI spending, user promotion, and R&D investment crowding out profits. AI has significantly reduced costs for advertising and short dramas, but its conversion and revenue generation are limited. Regarding AI between China and the US, the gap in model capabilities has narrowed to 3 to 6 months, with China leading in applications and ecosystems, while the US excels in basic models and hardware. Regarding the valuation divergence between large and small companies, he believes the core lies in the industry cycle: currently, pricing power is in the upstream, but after several years, with upstream capacity released, pricing power may return to downstream companies with users and application scenarios. In terms of sub-sectors, he is optimistic about cloud vendors, large model companies, and online games.ING Bank stated on September 2nd that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the overnight cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2nd. During its last rate hike in July, the RBNZ indicated that "further reduction in monetary stimulus may still be necessary." In its May economic forecast, based on higher oil price assumptions, it suggested that interest rates could reach 3.0% by the end of the year and remain at that level throughout 2027. Currently, market pricing is largely in line with these 2026 forecasts, but market expectations for 2027 are more hawkish, despite a decline in energy prices. The September rate hike has been fully priced in by the market, and another rate hike is expected before the end of the year. Following this, the overnight index swap (OIS) curve suggests a further tightening of 50 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.50% by mid-2027. Against this backdrop, we believe there is room for a dovish risk before the meeting. The threshold for the RBNZ to confirm the markets aggressive tightening expectations appears high.September 2nd - The State Intellectual Property Office announced that a media briefing for the 15th China Intellectual Property Annual Conference will be held this morning. The 15th China Intellectual Property Annual Conference will be held in Beijing from September 8th to 9th, focusing on the theme of "Striving to Promote High-Quality Development of Intellectual Property Undertakings during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," and will cover key topics such as intellectual property protection and utilization, cutting-edge fields like artificial intelligence, enterprise innovation and development, and international exchange and cooperation.
