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July 1st - Six sources revealed that the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering doubling the required reserve ratio for banks to hold in interest-free accounts. This move would reduce the central banks own interest expenses and mitigate the side effects of its anti-inflationary measures. The sources said the potential increase is being discussed among ECB policymakers, with a proposed minimum reserve requirement to be raised from 1% to 2% of bank customer deposits and other funding sources. This would help central banks in cash-rich countries like Germany reduce losses from paying interest on bank deposits exceeding legal requirements. Over the past decade, these excess deposits have grown to trillions of euros through bond-buying stimulus programs. This move would also absorb some excess liquidity and advance the ECBs efforts to guide banks away from free cash, an issue that will be reconsidered in this years so-called framework review. The sources said a decision on the potential measure is expected before autumn. It is understood that internal discussions within the ECB are still in their early stages, and the Governing Council has not yet formally discussed the matter.July 1st - A survey reveals that global central banks are accelerating adjustments to their foreign exchange reserve structures as US political and geopolitical risks rise. A survey of 74 central banks by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in London shows that for the first time, "the number of central banks planning to reduce their dollar holdings over the next decade exceeds those planning to increase them," reflecting a decline in the dollars attractiveness. The report points out that geopolitical factors have become one of the main reasons influencing the willingness to invest in the dollar, coupled with rising uncertainty in US trade policy, driving a global trend of "de-dollarization." Despite this, the dollar still accounts for approximately 58% of global central bank reserves and will maintain its dominant position in the short term. Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has increased significantly, with a record proportion of surveyed institutions planning to increase their gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical risks and financial system instability. Furthermore, the euro and the renminbi are also gaining attractiveness, receiving more attention in international trade and diversification, respectively, while some emerging market currencies are also favored. Overall, the global reserve system is showing a slow trend of diversification; the dollars dominance remains, but its marginal advantage is declining.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $26.9 billion from 10 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.Sources at the European Central Bank: Policymakers are discussing raising the minimum reserve requirement ratio for banks from 1% to 2%.European Central Bank sources say a decision on minimum reserve requirements is expected in the fall.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.