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1. According to SMM, the JFR union in Moquegua, Peru, has begun a strike, which is expected to cause delays in shipments from mines owned by Quellaveco and Grupo Mexico. Furthermore, the strike could spread to the port of Matarani in Arequipa, which, if it does, will further impact the shipping schedules of other major mines such as Las Bambas, Cerro Verde, and Constancia. Whether the strike has extended to Arequipa is currently unconfirmed. 2. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and inflation risks have both declined in recent weeks; he also reiterated the Feds commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% target. "In the initial weeks of this period, inflation expectations have fallen, and inflation risks have decreased accordingly," Warsh said. 3. Data shows that Venezuelan oil exports through trading companies fell to approximately 775,000 barrels per day. Venezuelan oil exports to the United States increased to 630,000 barrels per day in June, while exports to India fell to 277,000 barrels per day in June. 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh reiterated that he will not provide "forward guidance" on upcoming interest rate policy, marking a significant shift for the Fed. "Were going to forge a new path," Warsh said. "I hope that when we meet again in four weeks, well have a full internal debate." 5. U.S. ADP employment rose by 98,000 in June, the lowest increase since March, below market expectations of 118,000. 6. Three sources said Wednesday that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will agree to further increase their August production target at their meeting on Sunday, a move that would increase oil supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens and oil prices fall. The sources said the August production target would increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, the same increase as in June and July. 7. The EIA report showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, fell by 3.775 million barrels to 408 million barrels in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 0.92%, the lowest level since the week ending September 28, 2018. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the 10th consecutive week. Crude oil inventories on the U.S. West Coast fell to a record low.ECB Governing Council member Kasik: There may be more clarity on wages in the fall.ECB Governing Council member Kasik: The impact of the war on oil prices is likely to have a longer-term effect. Another rate hike is a reasonable expectation.United Auto Workers (UAW): More than 1,000 UAW Local 400 members voted to approve the new agreement.July 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that the closely watched dot plot of interest rates will remain in place for at least some time while the Fed evaluates its communication policies. "The dot plot will remain in place for at least some time," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal, "but we have a dedicated group that will review this mechanism."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.