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On March 27th, former Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Kazuo Monma stated on Friday that given the unprecedented challenges the Middle East conflict presents to interest rate setting, the BOJ is likely to warn in its upcoming quarterly report that underlying inflation could fluctuate sharply. Monma pointed out that before the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28th, the BOJ seemed prepared to raise interest rates as early as March or April, but the subsequent surge in oil prices and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz made this path uncertain. He stated that as hopes for a swift end to the war fade, the BOJ now faces significant uncertainty regarding how this oil shock will impact global and domestic economic growth, inflation dynamics, and corporate wage setting. These variables are likely to prompt the central bank to warn of two major risks in its upcoming quarterly report: the Middle East conflict leading to a contraction in demand and impacting the economy, and the supply shock exacerbating inflationary pressures.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose 14 basis points to 3.66%.Indonesian Energy Minister: Indonesias fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas supply is secure.On March 27, Iranian sources reported that Irans Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Illavani, sent a letter to the UN protesting the assassination of the Iranian Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister. He stated that reports of the two men being temporarily removed from the US and Israels purge lists confirm the existence of assassination threats, adding that "this threat stems from a criminal mentality; their open use of rules of engagement and stupidity is deeply concerning." In the letter, Illavani expressed his hope that UN Security Council members would "immediately take note of the reports published in the media." These reports indicate that a framework for assassinating senior Iranian officials does exist and has been systematically implemented since the start of the conflict.According to the Financial Times, the UAE is working with Bahrain to push for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing a future special task force.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.