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On August 12th, Omdia announced that it has revised its 2026 global semiconductor market revenue growth forecast to 94.1% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the DRAM and NAND markets due to AI demand continuing to outpace global supply capacity. Memory IC revenue is expected to account for more than 50% of total global semiconductor revenue in 2026. Meanwhile, AI demand has exceeded the current chip manufacturing and packaging capabilities of the semiconductor industry, and bottlenecks in key areas such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging, and advanced process technology capacity are expected to persist until at least 2027.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: Canadian crude oil arrived in Japan today, the first time since the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.On August 12th, according to the Financial Times, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Collins stated that the war in Iran has exacerbated cost-of-living pressures, leaving many in the US struggling to make ends meet. She warned that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Collins noted that businesses and households in the northeastern US are being squeezed by inflation, which has exceeded the central banks 2% target for over five years. She pointed out, "I hear about [prices] in almost every conversation (with businesses)." She added, "Among low- and middle-income households, I hear more and more about the challenges they face…like struggling to make ends meet. Energy prices are really unbearable, especially in our region." Collins, who currently has no voting rights on the FOMC, supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July, considering the current level "slightly contractionary" and stating that "this would allow them to expect a gradual and sustained decline in inflation." However, she indicated that she would be willing to support a rate hike as early as September if economic data suggests the need for one. She said, "I do think that economic conditions in the coming months may require a tighter policy, in which case I am prepared to raise interest rates."August 12th - According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine has ceased its intensive drone attacks on oil tankers using key Black Sea ports following a request from US Vice President Vance at the end of last month. Washington was reportedly shocked, as Ukraines attacks on tankers transporting crude oil from Kazakhstan to the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, further destabilized the oil market and harmed the interests of US companies. According to Ukrainian officials and other informed sources, Vance requested a halt to the attacks during a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky on July 31st. According to official sources and the Financial Times analysis of publicly available information, Ukraine has not attacked oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) terminal since then. Officials stated that Ukraine has agreed not to target Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) infrastructure or non-Russian vessels, provided these vessels are not subject to Ukrainian sanctions and are not carrying Russian oil or other Russian goods. A senior Ukrainian official stated, "We listened very seriously to our US partners." He added that Kyiv has established relevant "mechanisms" at the request of the US.On August 12th, shares of South Korean chipmakers rose after media reports that Temasek Holdings planned to invest in their stocks. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares surged by over 8% at one point, boosted by a report in the Asia Business Daily that Temasek had contacted South Korean investors regarding potential investments in Samsung and SK Hynix. It is understood that Temasek Holdings is considering the timing of the investment and plans to invest directly through its internal investment team. The South Korean KOSPI index also rose by approximately 5% as a result. In July, these chipmakers shares suffered a sharp sell-off as market concerns about the rapid pace of artificial intelligence infrastructure development led to the liquidation of leveraged positions. Recently, the shares have begun to rebound as market attention has shifted to the companies planned shareholder return policies.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.