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Futures News, May 21st: Driven by fluctuating geopolitical tensions, the average crude oil price rose this cycle, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate turned positive. At 24:00 today (May 21st), the retail price limits for refined oil products will be raised. The retail price limits for gasoline and diesel will increase by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to an increase of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel. Future international oil prices will fluctuate repeatedly around the progress of US-Iran negotiations, and the next cycle is expected to show a weak trend and high volatility. The new cycles crude oil change rate will start with a negative value, corresponding to a decrease of 60 yuan/ton on the first day. The price adjustment window is at 24:00 on June 4th.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Medium- to long-term inflation expectations have not deviated significantly.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Wage growth is still slowing.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: In adverse circumstances, it may be necessary to raise interest rates to maintain credibility. We are moving towards an adverse scenario.May 21st, Futures.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures prices have continued to fall sharply in recent intraday trading, mainly due to the break below the short-term upward channel. Previously, this channel dominated market movements, but the current break has exacerbated selling pressure, pushing market momentum towards a bearish trend. At the same time, the 50-day moving average (EMA) continues to exert dynamic negative pressure on prices, and the current price is trading below it, further increasing the likelihood of further declines in the near future. Meanwhile, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, it continues to release negative signals, reflecting weak buying momentum and the continued dominance of bears. Limited fluctuations are expected in the short term, but it is unlikely to change the current bearish pattern.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

 NZD:USD.png

 

During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.


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