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On September 21, as the war exposed the Gulf states vulnerability to Iranian attacks and eroded the United States credibility in the region, these countries called for a return to normalcy with Iran. At an event during the UN General Assembly, the Qatari Prime Minister stated that the US-Israel war against Iran was a "wake-up call," and that the Gulf states must "act responsibly as a region and ensure good relations with Iran." He said, "We are working toward this goal, and our regional partners share this view." At another event, the UAE Presidents foreign policy advisor also called for dialogue between Arab states and Iran, stating that negotiations between Tehran and Washington "have not actually made progress." He said, "We need to adopt a new mindset when discussing what kind of region we hope to build. Discussions about the future stability of the region can be conducted between the United States and Iran, but they should also be conducted between Iran and the Arab states." These remarks reflect a growing recognition among Gulf states that, with the United States deeply embroiled in conflict, after the war, regional countries will have to manage their relations with Tehran themselves.U.S. Trade Representative Greer: No options are ruled out on sanctions related to Iran.Micron Technology (MU.O): The next round of mediation with the union will take place on October 22.Micron Technology (MU.O): The company had requested to continue mediation with the Taoyuan Labor Union in Taiwan, but the request was rejected.On September 21, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that it is currently impossible to determine how long the conflict with Iran will last. Bessenter said that all Iranian airlines will cease operations globally starting September 23, and the U.S. is taking measures to prevent parties providing support to Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will monitor whether there will be supply shocks in the energy sector.

This Year, Bitcoin Has Stagnated. What is to Come Next?

Alina Haynes

Apr 29, 2022 10:09

Technical Analysis of the Bitcoin Elliot Wave

截屏2022-04-29 上午9.34.49.png

 

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year 2021 at a price of $46197 and is currently trading at $40297. Only a 12.8 percent decline, but everyone is gloomy. Between January 24th and March 28th of this year, it went as low as $32991 and as high as $46669. Almost all of BTC's price activity this year has been limited within a range of $35500 to $45000, with a mid-point of $40500.

 

From an Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) standpoint, sideways markets are the most difficult to anticipate due to the abundance of alternatives. Knowing which scenario is more likely becomes more of an educated estimate than it is when the cryptocurrency is in a much more defined impulse-based upswing. Consider Figure 1.

 

Bitcoin displayed a distinct impulse pattern leading up to the blue Primary-III high in early-2021, and then a distinct five-wave impulse pattern from the June lows to the November 2021 highs. BTC should have topped for a (pink) Cycle-3 wave and is currently in a Cycle-4 wave, according to my larger-picture EWP analysis.

 

I demonstrated in my prior report, which can be found here, that BTC was constructing a more imminent downside setup to $25K for wave-C4. Or if it becomes more problematic due to the famously difficult nature of fourth waves. In today's update, I'd want to take a deep dive into the more complex case. 

Final Thoughts

BTC is currently undergoing a multi-month fourth wave correction of the same magnitude as the wave that concluded in 2018 following the 2017 apex. Fourth waves are perplexing because they can take on at least 12 different patterns. Knowing which of these is which is impossible in advance. At this point, BTC has the potential to evolve into a complex triangle, but three factors must occur in order for it to occur:

  • Maintain a position above the trendline connecting the January and February lows, which is currently located at $36900.

  • Closer to this year's mid-point of $40,500. This reintroduces the possibility of targeting $45,500.

  • A near-recovery of the late-March high of $46669. Then the possible greater a-b-c pattern of wave-B is activated, preferably reaching $60K.

  • As a result, the stage has been set. The conditions are favorable for the formation of a complicated triangle. All BTC needs to do is give the triggers for the "three-step program" outlined above.

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