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US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. According to Iranian media Fars News: Irans leader may not be elected until next week, with voting expected after Khameneis funeral. 2. According to Iranian news agencies citing a senior Revolutionary Guard official, Iran vowed to strike all economic centers in the region should major Iranian cities be attacked. 3. Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman: Each commander has at least three successors, and there will be no vacuum. 4. Iran claims to have destroyed two US THAAD systems, and its missile force is "fully deployed." 5. Market news: Iran launched a second round of strikes against Oman, targeting the port of Duqm. 6. According to Iranian news websites: An airport in the southern port city of Bushehr was attacked, resulting in the destruction of an Iran Air plane on the ground. 7. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Begins the sixteenth wave of "True Commitment" operations, using a large number of missiles and drones against the core areas of the occupied territories. 8. Iran launches the "National Economic Resilience Enhancement and Civil Defense Construction Plan under the State of Emergency." ②United States 1. Trump announced insurance for oil shipments at sea, with the Navy providing protection if necessary. 2. Trump on Iran: They want to negotiate now, but its too late. 3. Trump claims Irans military capabilities have been severely damaged, denying being "dragged into war" by Israel. 4. Senior Trump administration official: No country has been used as a bridge for communication with Iran. 5. Trump: Short-term oil price increases are tolerable; eliminating the Iranian threat is a priority. 6. US Secretary of State Rubio: Drones attacked the parking lot next to the US consulate in Dubai. 7. US Secretary of State Rubio: Approximately 1,600 US citizens are currently requesting assistance. 8. According to the Washington Post: Sources revealed that a suspected Iranian drone attack struck the CIA office in Saudi Arabia. 9. US Secretary of State Rubio: Operations in Iran have a "clear objective" and will not continue indefinitely. ③Israel 1. Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations: Israel and the United States have control of almost all Iranian airspace. 2. Israeli military: Since the start of the operation, approximately 300 Iranian missile launchers have been destroyed. 3. Israeli military claims to have dropped over 4,000 bombs on Iran. ④ Other parties: 1. Iraqi official: Iraq may be forced to reduce production by over 3 million barrels per day within days. 2. Daily production at Iraqs largest oil field has decreased by 700,000 barrels. 3. Debris from an interceptor drone caused a fire at Fujairah, the UAEs main oil trading hub. 4. Macron: The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will be deployed to the Mediterranean. 5. Israeli official: Saudi Arabia plans to launch an attack on Iran. 6. US media: As regional war continues to escalate, the UAE is considering striking Iranian missile facilities. 7. UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs: No decision has been made regarding changing its defensive stance against attacks on Iran. 8. A large fire and thick smoke rose near the US Embassy in the UAE. 9. International Atomic Energy Agency: No evidence has been found to date that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon. 10. According to Irans Nour News: No radioactive leakage was detected after the US-Israeli coalitions attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. 11. British Prime Minister Starmer: Britain will send helicopters with anti-drone capabilities to Cyprus, and the HMS Dragon destroyer will be deployed to the region. 12. US Embassy in Beirut: Due to the continued tension in the region, the embassy will be closed indefinitely. 13. Ukrainian President Zelensky: If Arab leaders reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia, our army can go to help them. 14. Russian Foreign Ministry: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister by phone, and Lavrov reiterated his support for easing tensions in the Middle East. 15. Qatari Ministry of Defense: Iran launched two missiles into Qatari territory. One of them targeted the Al Udeid airbase, causing no casualties. Lebanon-Israel Conflict: 1. Israeli ground troops entered Lebanon. 2. Witnesses reported that the Lebanese army has withdrawn from at least seven forward operating positions along the border. 3. The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for three towns in southern Lebanon. 4. Hezbollah claims to have shot down an Israeli drone over a town in southern Lebanon. 5. Israels ambassador to the United Nations, Dani Danon, stated that the Lebanese government must take action against Hezbollah to prevent further escalation.Market news: Iraqi prime ministerial candidate Nouri al-Maliki announced his withdrawal from the prime ministerial race, just weeks after Trump asked him to withdraw.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: The situation in Iran reflects the failure of the international system.Federal Reserves Kashkari: If inflation cools down, one or two more rate cuts later this year may be appropriate.The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 27 will be released in ten minutes.

The IMF/World Bank Meetings to Test Risk Appetite as Fed Hawks Swoon

Skylar Shaw

Oct 11, 2022 14:48

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Last week's US economic figures exceeded forecasts. The US employment data and higher-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics allowed the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. The World Bank and IMF have been keeping an eye on central bank and economic activities.


Since the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed has maintained its stance. Fed Chair Powell issued a warning in August about the Fed's commitment to achieving the target inflation rate.


Powell also dispelled any expectations of a policy change at the time by warning the markets that inflation would need to be controlled by a protracted period of below-trend growth and a weaker labor market.


The Jackson Hole speech's response from the market was identical to that of Friday's employment data. The Powell speech resulted in a 3.94% decline in the NASDAQ 100. In reaction to an increase in hiring and a drop in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% last Friday, the NASDAQ fell by 3.80%.


The cryptocurrency market, which fell by $78 billion in reaction to Powell's speech and $11.5 billion in response to the employment data, experienced a distinct situation. Notably, the employment data offers the Fed leeway to aggressively front load rates. The crypto market was more affected by US inflation data.