EUR/USD
1.15078
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Gold
4880.72
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Oil
95.367
0.155%
USD/JPY
159.394
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GBP/USD
1.33271
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GBP/JPY
212.431
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Real-time News
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.On March 19th, amid widespread market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and next, one Fed policymaker predicted a rate hike next year. This prediction represents a minority view: most Fed policymakers still believe in rate cuts this year, consistent with their view in December. However, with the Iran war and its resulting surge in oil prices continuing into its third week, the sole prediction of a rate hike next year suggests a potential debate about whether its possible to combat inflation that has exceeded target levels over the past five years without changing interest rates. Furthermore, there are increasing signs that the Fed is trending towards a more hawkish policy stance. Even the most dovish policymaker (Milan) expects a 100 basis point rate cut this year, compared to his December forecast of 150 basis points. For this year, 7 of the Feds 19 policymakers believe interest rates will remain unchanged by the end of the year, 7 believe a 0.25 percentage point rate cut is needed, and 5 believe at least two rate cuts are necessary.The charts in the Federal Reserves economic projections show that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.The chart in the Federal Reserves economic projections shows that most FOMC participants believe there is high uncertainty surrounding the unemployment rate and that the risks are tilted to the upside.March 19th - The Federal Reserves March monetary policy statement was largely unchanged from its January statement. The statement now notes that the unemployment rate is "virtually unchanged," whereas in January the Fed stated that the unemployment rate "had shown some signs of stabilization." The Fed statement added a new sentence: acknowledging the situation in the Middle East conflict, but stating only that its impact on the economy is "uncertain."
