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On May 8th, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly downplayed the disagreements surrounding the Feds statement, hinting that she wouldnt vote against it like some of her colleagues. She stated that the wording of the statement was less important than the actions taken, and that the real signal from the meeting was unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to wording that hinted at future rate cuts, arguing that the uncertainty surrounding the energy shock and the Iran war made a "rates could rise or fall" signal more appropriate. Daly, who has no voting rights this year, said the public understands the Feds responsibility for price stability. Daly stated that there are no signs that energy prices are pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "Its too early to judge. If the conflict ends and oil prices fall without escalating to the broader economy, the pre-conflict dynamics are expected to return to normal." She is committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but shouldnt overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She described policy as "slightly tightening," adding that a resolution to the war would put downward pressure on inflation; the labor market is stable and has not generated inflationary pressure.Federal Reserves Kashkari: Optimistic about artificial intelligence.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by about $2 in the short term, currently trading at $98.08 per barrel and $100.58 per barrel respectively.Federal Reserves Daly: There are currently no signs that soaring energy prices are pushing up medium- to long-term inflation expectations.Federal Reserves Daly: Current monetary policy is "slightly tight," and if the conflict between the United States and Iran is resolved, it will put downward pressure on inflation.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Selling Pressure

Skylar Shaw

Sep 30, 2022 15:09

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued strong downward pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been quite bearish throughout Thursday's trading session. In the end, a lot of things are happening all around the globe, and the US dollar is strengthening. The S&P 500 won't do well in that climate, and neither will any other stock index, for that matter. I like fading rallies, and I also enjoy the notion of shorting those who do experience that break down below the 3600 mark.


The S&P 500 will likely have dropped below the 3500 level by then, which is a big, round, psychologically meaningful number. In the end, this is a market that, given enough time, should see a lot of volatility and, therefore, a lot of causes for people to feel uneasy. Nevertheless, bear market rallies have a reputation for being rather nasty, so an occasional snap to the upside is possible.


Given the market's continued exposure to a lot of outside unfavorable impact, they will almost certainly remain selling opportunities. Interest rates, global slowdowns, and a slew of other geopolitical concerns are all producing problems at the moment. In the end, I believe that in this situation, with enough time, we should see significant downward pressure. In light of this, maintain a manageable position size and refrain from going all in on each transaction you make. In a market like this, sound money management is essential.

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