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On January 13th, Julius Baer economist David A. Meyer stated in a report that market optimism regarding the yens potential benefit from the Bank of Japans policy normalization and other G10 central bank easing measures is waning. While the interest rate differential between Japan and the US is narrowing, and this trend is likely to continue with further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the yen remains weak with limited upside potential. Meyer pointed out that the recent decoupling of the yen from interest rate dynamics reflects investor concerns about Japans expansionary fiscal policies following a leadership change, while the countrys high public debt levels are also seen as a potential risk. He lowered his yen forecast, predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate will reach 155 in three months and 149 in one year, and stated that the yen is unlikely to be a major beneficiary of a weakening dollar by 2026.Roszarubezhneft, a Russian company: All of the companys assets in Venezuela are owned by Russia and were acquired by Russia at market prices.January 13th - The Hengqin-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zones Standard System for Integrated Home-Based and Community-Based Elderly Care Services was officially released today. This standard system, jointly released by the Cooperation Zones Livelihood Affairs Bureau and the Macao SAR Governments Social Welfare Bureau, is the first standardized achievement nationwide focusing on the alignment and cross-border integration of elderly care service rules between Hengqin and Macao. Feng Fangdan, Director of the Cooperation Zones Livelihood Affairs Bureau, stated that the Cooperation Zone, in collaboration with Macao, has established a standard system for cross-border home-based and community-based elderly care services that integrates the experiences of both places, achieving "same standards and same processes" for services in both regions, allowing elderly people in Hengqin and Macao to enjoy high-quality elderly care services. The Cooperation Zone will next promote the comprehensive implementation and continuous optimization of the system, further deepening and solidifying the integration of elderly care services between Hengqin and Macao, and creating a benchmark model for cross-border elderly care services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.RIA Novosti: Russian forces have launched a large-scale attack on Ukraines energy and military industrial facilities.Morgan Stanley predicts that the overall inflation rate for the December CPI report, to be released later today, will reach 0.37% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Core inflation is expected to be 0.36% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. Morgan Stanley cites two key reasons for this relatively hawkish forecast: firstly, the November survey data was collected later, and secondly, the inflation level in cities using the bi-monthly survey model is higher. According to their calculations, these two factors will push the December core inflation rate up by approximately 11 basis points. Overall, Morgan Stanley expects the report to show a significant rebound in price pressures after the recent period of weakness. This could reverse the market narrative that the "inflation decline is merely paused, not restarted."

Stock Markets Continue to Pressure the Upside

Cory Russell

Aug 02, 2022 15:08

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the market noise that has continued throughout the trading day on Monday, the S&P 500 has slightly declined. In the end, I think this market will need to make a more significant choice given enough time. As it stands, we are getting close to the pivotal 200 day EMA, which normally indicates that we may encounter some longer-term resistance. Given this situation, I believe we have a chance to present, but for the time being we may want to take a little step back.


Right now, the 4200 level represents the true reward, and if we can break through it, the markets are quite likely to undergo a significant shift. Despite the fact that one of the governors said over the weekend that the market had gotten a little ahead of itself, they now feel that the Federal Reserve is preparing to ease its monetary policy. Markets may not always take the Federal Reserve's statements seriously since, unfortunately, they have completely lost all credibility over the last 13 years.

 

As a result, it is quite probable that the markets will attempt to rise in the future; nevertheless, you must pay special attention to the 10-year yield. It is presently declining very quickly, which has increased pressure on risk taking generally. Given this, it does make some sense that we would break out, but you need to have the bond market on your side rather than against it.

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