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Futures News, August 17th: The progress of diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran has slowed, and the geopolitical dynamics are exhibiting multiple characteristics. Changes in expectations regarding the Strait of Hormuzs reopening: Initial estimates of US-Iran negotiations and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed down crude oil prices. However, with Iran demanding the lifting of sanctions and compensation, and the US also making corresponding claims, the pace of negotiations slowed, and previous expectations for a rapid resumption of navigation were revised. Traders are now incorporating the uncertainty of the shipping route into asset pricing. Supply recovery progress assessment: The ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect the recovery of regional oil production and logistics. Assessment data indicates that although OPECs total production in July is estimated at approximately 19.4 million barrels per day, this is still below the pre-war level of 27 million barrels per day. According to EIA estimates, approximately 5.5 million barrels per day of production capacity in the Middle East remained shut down in July. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted in August, the scale of production shutdowns is estimated to expand to 6.6 million barrels per day. From the perspective of market capital and position changes, with the increasing uncertainty of diplomatic negotiations, short positions previously established based on the expectation of a rapid resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have been adjusted, and geopolitical risk factors are once again reflected in market pricing. Against the backdrop of low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, short-term prices have broken away from the previous downward trend, and the markets sensitivity to geopolitical news has significantly increased. Overall, the fluctuating progress of US-Iran negotiations and expectations of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted the market to reassess the risk premium on the supply side of crude oil. The core focus of the market going forward will remain on: the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, the subsequent progress of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, and the evolution of the regional geopolitical situation. The subsequent development of these fundamental and logistical variables will continue to serve as the main basis for the markets assessment of the supply structure.On August 17th, the General Office of the Hunan Provincial Peoples Government issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Intelligent Robot Industry." The opinions propose cultivating a number of leading enterprises across the entire intelligent robot industry chain, establishing a regular support mechanism involving provincial and municipal governments, supporting enterprises in integrating resources across industries, and promoting their transformation into technology-exporting and ecosystem-operating enterprises. The opinions also call for improving the listing service mechanism for various intelligent robot companies and supporting them in accelerating their access to the capital market. Furthermore, the opinions encourage leading enterprises to take the lead in establishing innovative application consortia to undertake major national and provincial scientific and technological research projects.On August 17th, the General Office of the Hunan Provincial Peoples Government issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Intelligent Robot Industry." The opinions propose focusing on industrial robots, service and consumer robots, and special-purpose robots, to build an intelligent robot industry chain integrating key materials, core components, complete machine R&D, pilot testing and verification, intelligent manufacturing, scenario applications, and data feedback, promoting collaborative research and development and industrialization across all links. By 2028, the province aims to achieve a revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan for the intelligent robot industry chain; significantly improve the development level of key basic materials, advanced manufacturing processes, and core components; cultivate approximately 5 leading enterprises in the chain; and create a number of specialized and innovative supporting enterprises. By 2030, the province aims to achieve a revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan for the intelligent robot industry chain; mature the independent supporting system for core components and key materials such as precision transmission, high-precision sensing, motion control, and lightweight alloys; cultivate approximately 10 leading enterprises in the chain; and achieve a comprehensive industrial strength ranking among the top tier nationwide.According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea says the $200 billion investment plan reached with the United States in tariff negotiations still has unresolved issues.August 17th - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on August 18th, 2026. Assistant Minister of Commerce Yuan Xiaoming and relevant officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and the State Administration for Market Regulation will introduce the relevant situation regarding stimulating the vitality of lower-tier markets and boosting county-level consumption, and answer questions from reporters.

S&P 500 (SPY) Rebounds After Testing New Lows

Cory Russell

Oct 12, 2022 15:31

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As Treasury Yields decline, the S&P 500 increases

As traders hurried to purchase equities after the sharp decline, the S&P 500 resumed upward momentum after touching new lows at 3570.


Stocks received extra support when the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped below 3.90% and failed to settle above that mark.


Despite the widespread recovery, it is important to highlight that semiconductor stock prices are still in decline. As traders respond to the current export limitations placed on China, shares of Qualcomm, Qorvo, ON Semiconductor, and other companies in this market category are heading down.


In spite of today's wide stock market recovery, Meta and NVIDIA were able to escape their annual lows while testing new lows.


Looking at the larger picture, today's bounce seems technical. In just four trading sessions, the S&P 500 went from the 3800 level to 3575, so it's not unexpected to find that some traders were prepared to purchase equities at a significant discount to recent levels.


Earnings season will soon put the market to the test. At the end of this week, major banks including JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley will report their earnings, and the market's attitude will be greatly impacted by their statements. Ahead of these crucial news, trading may remain volatile.

S&P 500 Examines 3640 as Resistance

The S&P 500 managed to regain control above 3615 and is now attempting to hold above the next resistance level at 3640. If successful, it will go in the direction of the resistance at 3675. The S&P 500 will be pushed toward the 3700 level if a move is made over the 3675 level of resistance.


The S&P 500's closest support level is at 3615 on the support side. The next support level, at 3585, will be reached if the S&P 500 drops below this level. If the support at 3585 is successfully tested, the S&P 500 will move closer to the next support level at 3560.