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On May 8th, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated on Friday that he hopes current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will only remain in his position as a governor briefly after stepping down as chairman. Milan said, "I think its important to ensure this is just a transitional phase, and not that theres some ulterior motive behind Powell remaining as a governor." Powell stated after last weeks meeting that he will continue to serve on the Feds board of governorship for a period after his chairmanship ends, with his term running until 2028. He expressed hope to observe whether the Trump administrations legal attacks on the Fed will cease. While Powells continued presence on the Feds board could provide a check on maintaining the status quo as Warsh plans to push for Fed reforms, Powell stated last week, "I dont want to be a high-profile dissident or anything like that." Milan added, "Its important to ensure this is a transitional phase, not one that creates a division of loyalty within the Fed," and to avoid "people being unsure whos really in charge." "Thats why I think that while Powell remaining could help with the transition, we still need to ensure this is just a transitional period."On May 8th, the State Councils investigation team for the "5.4" extraordinarily serious explosion accident at Hunan Changsha Liuyang Huasheng Fireworks Manufacturing and Display Co., Ltd. held its first plenary meeting. Zhang Chengzhong, head of the State Councils accident investigation team and Minister of Emergency Management, presided over the meeting, briefing the participants on the investigation arrangements and outlining work requirements. The meeting emphasized that the accident investigation work must earnestly implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhering to the principles of "scientific rigor, legal compliance, seeking truth from facts, and focusing on effectiveness" and "four no-let-go" principles, to thoroughly investigate the facts, the problems, and the responsibilities, and to conduct the accident investigation work with a high sense of political responsibility. At the same time, the meeting required local governments to learn profound lessons, take decisive measures to strengthen the safety supervision of fireworks and firecrackers, draw inferences from this case to improve the investigation and rectification of hidden dangers in key industries and fields, and resolutely prevent and curb major and serious accidents.The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps: It previously launched two ballistic missiles and three drones at the United Arab Emirates.On May 8th, Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, recently conducted research on basic research in Fujian, Shanghai, and Beijing. During his research, Ding Xuexiang emphasized that the CPC Central Committees convening of the symposium on strengthening basic research is an important milestone in my countrys scientific and technological development. We must deeply understand the strategic intentions of the CPC Central Committee, strengthen systematic planning and overall coordination, leverage the leading role of national strategic scientific and technological forces and the radiating and driving role of international science and technology innovation centers, and promote collaboration between central and local governments and inter-departmental cooperation to continuously achieve new breakthroughs in basic research, providing a solid foundation for building a strong nation in science and technology.Ukraines Security Service: For the second consecutive day, attacks have been launched against Russias Lukoil refinery in Perm.

Powell Got One Thing Right, “high interest rates … will bring pain”

Alice Wang

Oct 17, 2022 16:29

Bonds, currencies, stocks, and precious metals will all see exceptionally high volatility as a result of the recent string of very significant rate rises.

Correlation between Bond Yields, Rate Increases, and Inflation

The September CPI inflation data, which was published by the BLS yesterday, revealed a 0.4% rise in inflation for the month of September. According to the data, the CPI inflation index decreased by 0.1% from the previous month's year-over-year of 8.3% to 8.2% in September. The core CPI, however, attracted the most interest. September saw an increase in the core CPI from 6.3% YoY in August to 6.6% YoY.


The temporal lag between interest rate increases and actual inflation is inherent, and the Federal Reserve prefers to base its monetary policy on the core level of inflation. In spite of this, a rise in core inflation after the Federal Reserve aggressively increased interest rates from near zero to between 300 and 325 basis points over the course of the last five consecutive FOMC meetings this year—including three consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points each in June, July, and September—clearly indicates that the recent rate hikes are having a nominal effect on reducing inflation.


However, they have significantly impacted the United States' growing debt instrument yields. After accounting for today's 1.68% rise, the 10-year Treasury note yield has now above 4% and is sitting at 4.02%. Thirty-year U.S. bond yields are not far behind, at 3.997%.

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