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On April 30th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, in line with market expectations. However, four officials voted against the inclusion of dovish language, three of whom opposed it, indicating a more cautious monetary policy stance. The high oil prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict, combined with the effects of previous tariffs, have complicated the inflationary environment. Supply shocks have shifted from occasional events to the new normal, meaning that the scope for policy easing is compressed, and the threshold for interest rate cuts will rise. This meeting was also Powells last at the helm of the Fed. Although his successor, Warsh, signaled a move towards "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts," the committees collective decision-making mechanism makes it difficult to push for rate cuts in the short term. We believe the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year is low, but the path to rate cuts will be longer, with the next rate cut potentially postponed until the fourth quarter.Samsung Electronics: Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to expand in the second quarter.Japans retail sales in March totaled 14.306 trillion yen, compared with 12.155 trillion yen in the previous month.April 30th - According to a document from the U.S. Court of International Trade, the first batch of refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on imported goods will be issued around May 11th. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20th that the IEPA did not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs. On March 4th, a judge from the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could not impose tariffs under the IEPA during tariff settlements. This means that tariffs previously imposed under the IEPA must be refunded.Japans inventory levels fell 1.5% month-on-month in March, compared with 0.3% in the previous month.

Natural Gas Price Prediction - Prices to Fall on Warm Weather Forecast

Alina Haynes

May 10, 2022 11:16

After reaching 13-year highs late last week, natural gas prices fell sharply on Monday. In the next six to ten days, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts above-average temperatures. Natural gas supplies were stable from week to week.

 

The Energy Information Administration reports that the U.S. natural gas supply is virtually stable from week to week. The weekly average total supply of natural gas increased by 0.1%. The little gain was due to slightly greater domestic dry natural gas output, while average net imports from Canada remained unchanged.

Analytical Techniques

On Monday, natural gas prices fell by more than 11 percent. Near the 20-day moving average at $7.29, old support is now resistance as prices have fallen through it. Target support is near the 50-day moving average at 6.01.

 

Momentum has turned negative over the medium term. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs when the MACD line (12-day moving average minus 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

 

The MACD histogram is in negative territory and sloping downward, indicating that prices will decline. As the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal, short-term momentum has turned negative.

 

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