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On September 15th, institutional analysts pointed out that the market expects the Bank of England to keep its base interest rate unchanged on Thursday, but at the same time slow its planned reduction of government bond holdings. This plan is attracting increasing attention as government bond yields continue to rise. The Bank of England cut its base rate from 4.25% to 4% last month, maintaining the pace of rate cuts since August 2024. At that time, as inflation retreated from its 2022 peak, the central bank began to gradually remove policy restrictions that had been curbing economic activity. Policymakers described this series of 25 basis point rate cuts every three months as "cautious and gradual." If this pace continues, policymakers should hold the base rate at 4.25% on Thursday. However, there are signs that they will not only keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may also hold rates steady at their November or December meetings.Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian Tu-22M3 bombers are patrolling the high seas area of the Barents Sea.Dow Jones: The Bank of England is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged and reduce quantitative tightening. Investors expect the scale of quantitative tightening to be significantly reduced to 100 billion pounds. The decision to quantitative tightening has triggered rising bond yields and intensified criticism.RBC Capital Markets: Raised the S&P 500 price target for the end of 2025 to 6350 from 6250; set the price target for the second half of 2026 at 7100.Germanys wholesale price index fell by -0.6% month-on-month in August, compared with -0.1% in the previous month.

Gold Price Prediction - Gold Prices Fell Sharply as Yields Increased

Alina Haynes

May 10, 2022 11:13

Despite soaring inflation and falling economic growth, gold prices declined. The dollar strengthened against other major currencies. As a result of the Fed's rate tightening, benchmark yields continue to rise, as the ten-year Treasury yield rose to 3.185 percent.

 

In accordance with forecasts, wholesale inventories in the United States increased by 2.3% in March compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, wholesale inventories climbed by 22%. The calculation of the gross domestic product includes inventories.

 

Wednesday's inflation figures will likely indicate the magnitude of the Fed's next action.

Analytical Techniques

Gold prices experienced negative pressure and are on course to break below the 200-day moving average of $1,836. Near the 200-day moving average at 1,836 is viewed as support. Near the 10-day moving average of 1,882 is observed resistance.

 

Short-term momentum is negative as the Fast Stochastic generated a sell crossing signal. With a value of 13.5 below the oversold threshold of 20, the fast stochastic indicates that prices are oversold.

 

As the MACD produces a crossover sell signal, medium-term momentum has gone negative. This occurs when the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average passes beneath the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram shows a negative trajectory, indicating falling prices.

 

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