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November 22nd - Since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, market enthusiasm has rapidly subsided. In the past week, the market capitalization of Tokyo-listed stocks evaporated by approximately $127 billion, the yen continued to weaken, and Japanese bond yields soared. Even more unsettling for the market is the rapidly decreasing likelihood of a short-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Interest rate swap market data shows that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December has surged from about 30% before Takaichis election victory in early October to 80%. Rodrigo, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, stated, "The market has become numb to verbal intervention from Japanese officials. The yen is becoming a toy in the hands of speculators." George, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, even warned that Takaichis spending plans could trigger disorderly capital flight. Meanwhile, Idana, an investment manager at First Eagle, frankly stated, "Considering tariffs and the current situation, the Japanese economy is actually performing well; now may not be the time to significantly increase fiscal stimulus."On November 22nd, Nick Timiraos, a well-known voice within the Federal Reserve, wrote that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall significantly after appointing a new Fed chairman next May. However, internal opposition to a December rate cut is growing, meaning his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut rates in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could extend into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he may resort to more aggressive measures to weaken the central banks independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. But the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and the new chairman appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should minimize the possibility of renewed war. There is a misconception that victory will be easily achieved simply by providing more funds, more weapons, or imposing more sanctions.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should stop the killings while preserving Ukraines sovereignty. Any plan should be mutually acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.November 22 – According to the China State Railway Group, from January to October this year, the national railway system transported a total of 3.378 billion tons of freight, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new record for the same period. In the first ten months, freight products continued to be optimized. The "single bill of lading" logistics product for rail-sea intermodal transport booked 30,000 TEUs, and the national railway system transported a total of 14.258 million TEUs of rail-sea intermodal container cargo, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. Cross-border freight transport remained stable and smooth. From January to October, the China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains operated a total of 28,000 trains, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; the China-Laos Railway cross-border freight trains transported a total of 4.52 million tons of cargo, a year-on-year increase of 14%; and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor freight trains transported a total of 1.2 million TEUs of containers, a year-on-year increase of 64%, promoting international trade and economic exchanges.

【Hot Talk: 22/9 Tesla Battery Day】Must read before you buy Tesla! Its prospects are not that smooth on the road.

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 14:05

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Tesla 2020 shareholders meeting will be held on September 22, Pacific time. After the conference, Tesla will hold a press conference for battery technology for the first time, which is "Battery Day." In response, investment banks have raised the target price of Tesla. Wedbush increased from US$380 to US$475; PiperJaffray increased from US$480 to US$515; Deutsche Bank raised US$300 to US$400; Credit Suisse raised US$280 to US$400.


Before each conference, Musk will make high-profile hype, and Tesla's stock price tends to rise around the event date. But it should be noted that not every new technology announced at the press conference can finally be faithfully applied to the product.


For example, in October 2016, Musk demonstrated solar glass roof tiles technology to the market and successfully persuaded investors to acquire SolarCity for US$2.6 billion. But so far, the company has not applied the solar technology to any products.


Similarly, at the "Autonomous Driving Day" conference in April 2019, Musk said that Tesla hopes to "achieve the improvement of autonomous driving functions this year." But as of this summer, the autonomous driving system is still in the "disruptive improvement" stage that Musk claims.


Therefore, short-term speculators may benefit from the "battery day", but long-term investors must think twice before placing heavy bets, as the value of their products may be overvalued.


Cruise, the rival of Autonomous driving technology  

Objectively speaking, Tesla still lags behind its competitors in autonomous driving technology. One of its main rivals is Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors (GM.US). Its autonomous driving technology is more mature, and its company vision goes far beyond the scope of owning a car.


Cruise showed the Origin driverless concept car earlier this year. This car is not designed to compete with Tesla for people's garage space, but to facilitate people's travel in the city. Data from the survey company Navigant Research shows that more than a dozen companies have better strategies and execution capabilities than Tesla in terms of autonomous driving technology. The report claims that Cruise is the "leader" in autonomous driving, and Tesla is just the "challenger" of this technology.


What's more, Cruise's autonomous driving mileage in California in 2019 was 831,040 miles, and Tesla's was only 12.2 miles. If Cruise really launches autonomous driving services as planned in 2021, it will greatly affect Tesla's business.


Electric car startup Rivian

There is an unlisted company in the electric vehicle field that has attracted much attention-the electric truck startup Rivian. In February 2019, Amazon led a $700 million investment in the company. In the same year, Ford Motor (F.US) also invested US$500 million in it.


Rivian plans to start delivering its electric R1T pickup and R1S SUV in the summer of 2021. Both can reach an addend of 0-60 kilometers in 3 seconds, with a horsepower of 750. They can also travel through nearly 1 meter of water and have a battery life of 400 miles. In addition, Rivian also intends to provide last-mile delivery trucks to Amazon.


In fact, Rivian is not a new company. The company was founded in 2009 by RJ Scaringe. In the initial stage, the chassis was specially designed for off-road vehicle "skateboard".


Although the customer base of Rivian Automobile and TeslaModel 3 customers may not be the same. But Rivian looks to be the focus of high-end electric car customers and will become Tesla's new competitor in 2021.


SolarEdge solar technology

In the five years since the solar technology company SolarEdge (SEDG.US) went public, its share price has soared by 806%. The company has achieved significant results in leading the US residential and commercial solar module-level power electronics business.


Although it does not pose a threat to Tesla at present, the electronic products it manufactures are very important to solar panel manufacturers and installers like Tesla. This means that Tesla cannot dominate the energy storage and electric vehicle markets.


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