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On November 18th, Barclays economists stated in their quarterly outlook that the yen is likely to remain under pressure given Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis policy stance leaning towards "Abenomics." Given the yens high sensitivity to fiscal risks, further fiscal expansion is expected to keep USD/JPY at higher levels. Barclays recommends investors continue to hold long positions in USD/JPY.On November 18th, a CLSA research report indicated that PetroChinas (00857.HK) share price recently hit a new high, approaching the HK$9 mark, a level not seen during the past three years of declining oil prices. The report believes that the companys solid third-quarter results suggest that even if oil prices remain around US$60 per barrel for the remainder of the year, it is still likely to exceed market expectations for the full year. Despite the recent share price increase, the full-year dividend yield is expected to reach 6%, providing investors with a defensive option. Furthermore, the companys guidance for capital expenditure in 2025 is RMB 262 billion, a 5% year-on-year decrease, the first year-on-year decline in three years. Coupled with a low net debt ratio, the report believes the company has room to increase its full-year dividend payout ratio, which was 52% last year. The report raises PetroChinas H-share target price from HK$8.8 to HK$10, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.Jefferies: Raises its price target for Ford Motor (FN) from $12 to $15; raises its price target for General Motors (GM.N) from $55 to $75.Jefferies raised its price target for Ctrip (TCOM.O) from $85 to $88.On November 18th, CICC issued a research report initiating coverage of Guoquan (02517.HK) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HK$4.9. Guoquans retail-oriented strategy caters to consumers needs for home-cooked meals by offering a variety of delicious and affordable family-friendly dining products. CICC projects the companys earnings per share to be RMB 0.16 and RMB 0.2 for this year and next year, respectively, implying a CAGR of over 35% from 2024 to 2026.

【Hot Talk: 22/9 Tesla Battery Day】Must read before you buy Tesla! Its prospects are not that smooth on the road.

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 14:05

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Tesla 2020 shareholders meeting will be held on September 22, Pacific time. After the conference, Tesla will hold a press conference for battery technology for the first time, which is "Battery Day." In response, investment banks have raised the target price of Tesla. Wedbush increased from US$380 to US$475; PiperJaffray increased from US$480 to US$515; Deutsche Bank raised US$300 to US$400; Credit Suisse raised US$280 to US$400.


Before each conference, Musk will make high-profile hype, and Tesla's stock price tends to rise around the event date. But it should be noted that not every new technology announced at the press conference can finally be faithfully applied to the product.


For example, in October 2016, Musk demonstrated solar glass roof tiles technology to the market and successfully persuaded investors to acquire SolarCity for US$2.6 billion. But so far, the company has not applied the solar technology to any products.


Similarly, at the "Autonomous Driving Day" conference in April 2019, Musk said that Tesla hopes to "achieve the improvement of autonomous driving functions this year." But as of this summer, the autonomous driving system is still in the "disruptive improvement" stage that Musk claims.


Therefore, short-term speculators may benefit from the "battery day", but long-term investors must think twice before placing heavy bets, as the value of their products may be overvalued.


Cruise, the rival of Autonomous driving technology  

Objectively speaking, Tesla still lags behind its competitors in autonomous driving technology. One of its main rivals is Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors (GM.US). Its autonomous driving technology is more mature, and its company vision goes far beyond the scope of owning a car.


Cruise showed the Origin driverless concept car earlier this year. This car is not designed to compete with Tesla for people's garage space, but to facilitate people's travel in the city. Data from the survey company Navigant Research shows that more than a dozen companies have better strategies and execution capabilities than Tesla in terms of autonomous driving technology. The report claims that Cruise is the "leader" in autonomous driving, and Tesla is just the "challenger" of this technology.


What's more, Cruise's autonomous driving mileage in California in 2019 was 831,040 miles, and Tesla's was only 12.2 miles. If Cruise really launches autonomous driving services as planned in 2021, it will greatly affect Tesla's business.


Electric car startup Rivian

There is an unlisted company in the electric vehicle field that has attracted much attention-the electric truck startup Rivian. In February 2019, Amazon led a $700 million investment in the company. In the same year, Ford Motor (F.US) also invested US$500 million in it.


Rivian plans to start delivering its electric R1T pickup and R1S SUV in the summer of 2021. Both can reach an addend of 0-60 kilometers in 3 seconds, with a horsepower of 750. They can also travel through nearly 1 meter of water and have a battery life of 400 miles. In addition, Rivian also intends to provide last-mile delivery trucks to Amazon.


In fact, Rivian is not a new company. The company was founded in 2009 by RJ Scaringe. In the initial stage, the chassis was specially designed for off-road vehicle "skateboard".


Although the customer base of Rivian Automobile and TeslaModel 3 customers may not be the same. But Rivian looks to be the focus of high-end electric car customers and will become Tesla's new competitor in 2021.


SolarEdge solar technology

In the five years since the solar technology company SolarEdge (SEDG.US) went public, its share price has soared by 806%. The company has achieved significant results in leading the US residential and commercial solar module-level power electronics business.


Although it does not pose a threat to Tesla at present, the electronic products it manufactures are very important to solar panel manufacturers and installers like Tesla. This means that Tesla cannot dominate the energy storage and electric vehicle markets.


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