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On August 29th, NBC News, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has been discussing the possibility of running for president in 2028 with close associates in recent months. Hegseth and his wife believe he shares some similarities with Trump, including a tough, confrontational style and conservative stances on social issues, which could garner support from the MAGA base. This month, Hegseth also traveled to Iowa to campaign for Republican lawmakers. Iowa has long been a key outpost in US presidential elections, further fueling speculation that he is preparing to run. If he does run, Hegseth could compete with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and others. However, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating that "Secretary Hegseth will not run for president," and that his primary focus remains leading the Department of Defense. The report points out that the ongoing war with Iran could be a major political burden for Hegseth, with 18 US military personnel already killed and the average US gasoline price rising from less than $3 per gallon to slightly over $4.On August 29th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that todays changes in the US Treasury yield curve released two signals. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed by approximately 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by approximately 10 basis points, showing a flattening trend. El-Erian believes this reflects a dual interpretation in the fixed-income market: in the short term, it represents a hawkish repricing following Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firm commitment to the inflation target; in the long term, it reflects recognition of the Federal Reserves long-term credibility.According to NBC News, U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays is considering running for president in 2028.On August 29th, Deutsche Bank economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. Fed Chairman Warsh, in his Jackson Hole speech, emphasized the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target and released a clearly hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank believes that unless future economic data is "significantly weaker than expected," the threshold for avoiding a 25 basis point rate hike in September is already very high. The market has also quickly increased its bets on rate hikes: CME data shows that the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points or more by December has risen to 51%, up from only 29% the previous day; the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 38%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 11%. Following Warshs speech, market bets on a September rate hike have also clearly intensified.US President Trump criticized New York Governor Hoher for "taking Canadas side," refusing to use the name "American Lake," and "preferring Canada to win," while also supporting Blackman as the next governor of New York.

Gold Falls As The U.S. Federal Reserve And CPI Week Start

Haiden Holmes

Dec 12, 2022 10:19

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Gold prices slipped slightly below key levels on Monday, as caution set in ahead of vital U.S. inflation data and a Federal Reserve meeting this week, while COVID-19 cases in China pushed copper prices lower.


According to data released last week, U.S. producer price inflation fell further in November, albeit at a slower rate than anticipated. Consequently, bullion prices increased, but to a lower level than predicted. Tuesday's report of the consumer price index may reveal a similar pattern, based on this outcome.


This year, growing U.S. inflation spurred the Federal Reserve to conduct a series of quick interest rate hikes, which had a considerable negative impact on metal markets by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.


On Wednesday, the central bank is anticipated to conclude a two-day meeting during which it will raise interest rates by an extremely tiny 50 basis points. However, the direction of U.S. inflation will have a significant impact on the extent of future rate hikes.


As of 19:30 EST, spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,793.72 per ounce, while gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,804.95 per ounce (00:30 GMT). Traders remained cautious ahead of this week's crucial data releases, keeping the yellow metal's price mostly flat last week.


Platinum prices decreased 1.7% on Monday, while silver futures decreased 0.5%.


The markets are wary of any indications that U.S. inflation stayed higher than anticipated in November, since this might lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The central bank has warned that if inflation proves to be persistent, U.S. interest rates may peak at higher-than-anticipated levels.


The dollar rose moderately on Monday in anticipation of U.S. economic data, with further support from PPI inflation data that above market forecasts.


Following two consecutive weeks of gains, copper prices decreased on Monday as COVID-related uncertainty in China grew.


Copper futures fell 0.4% to $3.8412 a pound.


China loosened a number of statewide anti-COVID regulations last week, a move that is anticipated to gradually stimulate the world's second-largest economy.


Scientists have cautioned, however, that the loosening of COVID limitations is likely to result in a rise in infections in the near future, which might delay the total removal of restrictions.


This has raised doubts about the timing of an economic recovery in the world's largest copper importer.


The outlook for copper, which normally flourishes in high-growth environments, has also been impacted by deteriorating economic data from a number of key nations.