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Futures News, March 4th: 1. Snowfall is expected in central and northern North China and southern Northeast China. From March 4th to 6th, light to moderate snow is expected in central and northern North China, southern Northeast China, western mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and the Ili River Valley, with heavy snow in some areas. 2. Over the next three days, influenced by a deepening low-pressure system and upper-level trough, heavy snow is expected in parts of western Norway, northern Sweden, most of Finland, Iceland, southern East European Plain, northern Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, central and eastern Afghanistan, and northern Pakistan, with blizzards or heavy blizzards in some areas. Accumulated precipitation in some of these areas will be 10-20 mm, with some areas exceeding 40 mm. Most of these areas will also experience winds of force 5-6, with gusts of force 8-9. 3. Over the next three days, influenced by a low-pressure system and an upper-level trough, moderate to heavy snow or sleet is expected in parts of high-altitude coastal and central Canada, the western mountainous regions of the United States, the eastern Great Lakes region, and southern Labrador Peninsula, with localized blizzards or heavy snowfalls. Accumulated precipitation is expected to be 10-20 mm, with some areas exceeding 40 mm. Temperatures in most of these areas will drop by 6-10°C, with some areas experiencing a drop of over 14°C. 4. Over the next three days, influenced by multiple low-pressure systems and an upper-level trough, moderate to heavy rain is expected in parts of northern Western Australia, the Northern Territories, northern Queensland, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands, with localized torrential rains. Accumulated precipitation in these areas is expected to be 30-50 mm, with some areas exceeding 80 mm.Market news: Israeli and/or US airstrikes are targeting Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) targets in Iraq.The worlds largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings decrease by 2.29 tons from the previous day, with its current holdings at 1099.05 tons.The Saudi cabinet issued a statement saying it will take all necessary measures to safeguard national security.Key Futures Data and Events to Watch Today (March 4, 2026), Wednesday: 1. Chinas official February manufacturing PMI; 2. Chinas February RatingDog services PMI; 3. UK LME non-ferrous metal inventory change to March 4; 4. US February ADP employment change; 5. US February S&P Global Services PMI final reading; 6. US February ISM non-manufacturing PMI; 7. US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 27.

Global Macro and Crude Oil Analysis - Today, the Market Feels Even More Capitulatory

Daniel Rogers

May 12, 2022 10:58

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Global Macro

Inflation may have declined from its prior record, but the sluggish rate of decline will further increase fears that, despite statistics and the CPI peak, the Fed still has a problem with persistent inflation.

 

Inflation in the United States almost definitely peaked in March, but a little decline in April statistics does not suggest the inflation menace has passed. If anything, the concentration on data is generally intensified on the way down.

 

Still, the core CPI climbed by 0.57 percent month-over-month in April, considerably above expectations and the highest pace since January; the market will be concerned that the Fed's hawkish tone will not soften, and it will want to continue with 50bp rate hikes. It will also keep rumors of a 75bp rate hike alive in the market, despite the Fed's efforts to stifle this chatter in order to avoid a severe market shock.

 

Today, the markets are even more despondent, as they are confronted by three significant difficulties. First, investors will need to account for a longer Fed raising cycle. Two, the danger that the Fed may become excessively hawkish, so stifling growth and creating a recession. And third, traders still must navigate QT.

 

For the greater part of a decade, stock pickers have relied on quantitative easing (QE), and now, without it, nobody knows where equities will settle; therefore, traders will continue to conduct the reverse of QE trades until proven differently.

 

In the interim, there is always the relief rally crew, but even if volatility rolls in, stocks may not experience a significant bounce. "TINA" no longer applies.

Fundamental Analysis of Oil

Oil prices rose as the European Union argued over a crude oil embargo against Russia, while fuel supplies fell predictably ahead of the US summer driving season.

 

However, the favorable downward bend in China's covid curve looks to have reversed the trend for oil markets this week, at least until oil traders experience another mood swing toward a bearish outlook.

 

As the Fed works to reduce inflation, a US recession is practically certain. Rates of interest are an extremely blunt instrument, and QT's tightening of financial conditions is a prescription for economic calamity.

 

Until we see substantial policy support from China or authorities embrace an alternative strategy to Covid (which seems highly improbable), oil prices could stay constrained in the near future.

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