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On August 17th, Reuters claimed on the 15th to have obtained an "exclusive report," stating that according to a draft letter from the U.S. State Department and anonymous U.S. officials, the U.S. government plans to send letters to more than 30 countries that signed the Joint Statement on Partnership for Artificial Intelligence Opportunities in June, demanding that they "choose" sides in the U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) race. The U.S. also threatened that if these countries participate in the China-led AI framework, they will be excluded from the U.S.-led "AI alliance." Chinese experts stated that the U.S., by using the "Silicon Peace" initiative to woo more than 20 economies, is now forcing countries to choose sides, which smacks of technological bullying.On August 17, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Supreme Peoples Court, and the Supreme Peoples Procuratorate, issued a "Notice on Further Strengthening the Prevention and Control of Wastewater Pollution Risks from Industry and Other Industries and Ensuring the Safety of Agricultural Irrigation Water." The notice requires the upgrading and transformation of centralized wastewater treatment facilities in industrial parks surrounding farmland, the investigation and rectification of water-related problems in industry and livestock farming, and the formulation and revision of local water pollutant emission standards for industrial enterprises whose characteristic pollutants may affect the safety of downstream agricultural irrigation water, strengthening emission control requirements.August 17th - Data released on Monday showed that Japans second-quarter real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% annualized quarter-on-quarter, compared to expectations of 0.5% and 2%, respectively. The lower-than-expected GDP growth complicates the process of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Flat private consumption and a sharp contraction in capital spending in the second quarter indicate that the private sector remains cautious about spending, which could lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a more prudent stance at its next meeting, despite persistently high PPI and CPI continuing to pressure policymakers to take action. The yen may face renewed pressure due to the weak economic growth outlook, especially if the market lowers the probability of a September rate hike; meanwhile, government bond yields may decline as short-term tightening expectations weaken. While external demand partially offset this impact, it alone is unlikely to change the overall moderate economic trend.On August 17th, Futures News reported that the 7.7 magnitude earthquake on Flores Island, Indonesia, had a relatively small impact on the aluminum industry chain. In terms of production capacity distribution, bauxite, alumina, and the vast majority of electrolytic aluminum production capacity are concentrated in western Indonesia, generally more than 1400 kilometers from the epicenter. Even the nearest electrolytic aluminum plant—Huaqing Aluminum in Morowali, Sulawesi—is about 624 kilometers away, still outside the 300-kilometer damage radius. Coupled with the tsunami wave height of less than 0.4 meters, the actual supply impact was almost zero. In terms of prices, at most, there will be a short-term sentiment pulse of 0-1%, which is expected to be reversed within 1-3 days, without changing the medium-term trend.The Nikkei 225 index opened 115.75 points higher on Monday, August 17, a gain of 0.17%, to 68,829.55.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continues to Consolidate Just Above Trend Line

Skylar Shaw

Feb 28, 2023 15:50

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we are sitting just below a couple of major moving averages in the form of the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA. They both attract a lot of attention, so it is worth paying attention to the fact that the market does not seem to be in a hurry to get above those moving averages, which of course could be a bit of a head. We are also right around the psychologically important 4000 level, so a lot of traders will be looking to go in both directions at this point. Adding even more volatility to the mix is the fact that we are in the midst of earnings season, and recently there has been a lot of games played with the “zero day to expiration” options market, meaning that people are placing extremely short-term options trades that are kicking the market around.


If we were to break down below the lows Friday, that would show a significant continuation to the downside, perhaps opening up the downside all the way to the 3900 level, possibly even the 3800 level after that. Keep in mind that interest rates continue to rise, therefore putting a little bit of an anchor on the stock market. However, if we do see interest rates are to fall again, and we can break above the moving averages, then it’s possible that we could see the S&P 500 try to reach towards the 4100 level.


That being said, the last couple of weeks have been shaky to say the least, and therefore we could see a continuation of this overall negativity. I think the only thing you can probably count on at this point in time is going to be an extreme amount of volatility, because of this, it’s very possible that we could see more choppiness, instead of less. Make sure you keep your position size reasonable because things could get ugly rather quickly.

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