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July 15th Futures News: 1. International oil prices have risen by more than 11% in just two trading days this week, the largest two-day percentage increase since mid-March. As of July 14th, WTI crude oil futures for the first month rose by $7.93 per barrel, an increase of 11.10%; Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose by $8.72 per barrel, an increase of 11.47%. Shipping activity in the Gulf region has slowed significantly as risks continue to escalate. Shipping data shows that from July 11th to 13th, confirmed passage of ships carrying commodities fell to 11 per day, compared to 30 per day from July 1st to 10th. 2. Deutsche Bank believes that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with Trumps renewed hardline rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily increase in Brent crude oil on the 13th was the largest since 2020, reigniting concerns about stagflation and pushing up interest rate expectations and global bond yields. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical risks have also contributed to this situation.On July 15th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, enterprises placed greater emphasis on research and development innovation, continuously increasing investment in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In terms of proportion, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the Taiwanese military held its first "joint defense exercise" this week, simulating "threat scenarios such as detecting enemy ships setting sail and entering territorial waters," in order to respond to potential threats. What is your comment on this? Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that the DPP authorities attempt to seek "independence" through force, escalating cross-strait confrontation, is the main culprit for the tense and unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait. Faced with the powerful Peoples Liberation Army, no matter how many exercises the DPP authorities conduct, it is all posturing and futile. It cannot change the inevitable defeat of "Taiwan independence," nor can it stop the historical trend of the inevitable reunification of the motherland.The main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 6.00% intraday, currently trading at 4574.00 yuan/ton.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: US inflation data fell short of expectations, easing concerns about interest rate hikes. Overnight, London spot gold prices fluctuated and strengthened, with COMEX July gold futures closing up 1.6% and SHFE gold up 0.89%. 1. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from Mays 4.2% increase; June core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. This further delayed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, weakening the dollar and pushing gold prices higher. However, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains, and oil prices and inflation stickiness may lead to fluctuations in July data. Last night, Warsh made his congressional debut, stating that even with Trumps criticism, he would act according to the data, and the June CPI slowdown does not mean the inflation "mission is accomplished." 2. Overall, gold prices have been mainly weak and corrective, influenced by geopolitical disturbances, recurring inflation, and Warshs hawkish stance. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, and caution is still advised.

Oil Quiet As Price Cap Suggestion Assists in Relieving Supply Concerns

Skylar Williams

Nov 25, 2022 14:48

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Benchmark Brent oil declined on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained unchanged, hovering at two-month lows due to uncertainty about the degree to which a proposed G7 restriction on the price of Russian oil would limit supply.


A larger-than-anticipated rise in gasoline inventories in the United States and an expansion of COVID-19 limitations in China also knocked on oil prices.


At 15.15 p.m. ET (2015 GMT), Brent oil prices decreased 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.12 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures decreased 2 cents, to $77.96 per barrel.


Due to the Thanksgiving break in the United States, trade volumes were quite low.


The announcement on Wednesday that the expected price ceiling for Russian oil may surpass the current market level triggered a decrease of about 3 percent for both benchmarks.


European Union nations remained divided over what level to cap Russian oil prices to limit Moscow's ability to pay for its battle in Ukraine without causing a global oil supply shock; if positions converge on Friday, more conversations are possible.


A European official claimed that the G7 is discussing a cap of $65-$70 per barrel for Russian oil transported by sea, but European Union member states have not yet reached an agreement on a price.


A higher price ceiling might encourage Russia to continue selling its oil, decreasing the possibility of a global oil supply shortage.


According to two sources, several Indian refiners are discounting Russian Urals crude by between $25 and $35 per barrel compared to the worldwide benchmark Brent oil. Urals is Russia's principal crude export.


Despite the obstacles, Bart Melek, global head of commodities market strategy at TD Securities, is rather optimistic about oil. "The Russian price ceiling is another aspect that contributed to the current price fall," he stated.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States climbed substantially during the previous week. [EIA/S]


In contrast, oil stockpiles decreased by 3.7 million barrels to 431.7 million barrels in the week ending November 18, despite a Reuters survey predicting a reduction of 1.1 million barrels.


China reported the highest daily number of COVID-19 cases since the outbreak began over three years ago on Wednesday. Local officials intensified measures to remove the breakouts, raising investor anxiety over the economy and demand for fuel.

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