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August 12th - According to NBC News, a US military intelligence assessment indicates that Irans strategic focus has shifted from its nuclear program to the Strait of Hormuz. US officials stated that the military has informed Trump that the US could attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz by force, but this operation would be "protracted, deadly, and extremely costly," and "there is no guarantee that the US will ultimately succeed." The US militarys assessment of related operational plans suggests that if Trump orders such an operation, it will result in "numerous US military casualties." Officials stated that the risk of such a large-scale military operation has been a factor considered by Trump and his advisors when discussing the next steps in Iran policy. Two European officials also stated that Iran believes it has the upper hand in negotiations through actual control of the Strait and sees this as a stronger bargaining chip than its nuclear program.On August 12, Li Chijiang, Chinas Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs, sternly refuted the so-called "ballistic missile launch notification" joint statement by the US representative at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on August 11. He emphasized that Chinas legitimate and reasonable national defense modernization is beyond question, and that Chinas goodwill in providing advance notification of missile launches should not be hijacked by geopolitical calculations. China firmly opposes individual countries abusing the Conference on Disarmament platform for political manipulation.Venezuelan Foreign Minister Prasencia announced on social media on the 11th that Venezuela and Israel have agreed to resume consular services. The announcement stated, "The two countries have agreed to establish a coordination mechanism to provide consular services to their citizens residing in the other country when needed." On January 14, 2009, then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez decided to sever all relations with Israel. A week earlier, he expelled the Israeli ambassador to Venezuela in support of the Palestinians.On August 12th, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that the market will focus on the month-on-month change in Julys inflation data released on Wednesday, as a growing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation falling back to 2% over the next two years" is still achievable without further interest rate hikes. Newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh has recently expressed skepticism about this framework that links policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Feds current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick noted that the working group established by Warsh appears to be partly aimed at helping to build a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clearly defined, the old framework seems to continue operating.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine has submitted a proposal to US negotiators to end the war with Russia.

Oil Quiet As Price Cap Suggestion Assists in Relieving Supply Concerns

Skylar Williams

Nov 25, 2022 14:48

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Benchmark Brent oil declined on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained unchanged, hovering at two-month lows due to uncertainty about the degree to which a proposed G7 restriction on the price of Russian oil would limit supply.


A larger-than-anticipated rise in gasoline inventories in the United States and an expansion of COVID-19 limitations in China also knocked on oil prices.


At 15.15 p.m. ET (2015 GMT), Brent oil prices decreased 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.12 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures decreased 2 cents, to $77.96 per barrel.


Due to the Thanksgiving break in the United States, trade volumes were quite low.


The announcement on Wednesday that the expected price ceiling for Russian oil may surpass the current market level triggered a decrease of about 3 percent for both benchmarks.


European Union nations remained divided over what level to cap Russian oil prices to limit Moscow's ability to pay for its battle in Ukraine without causing a global oil supply shock; if positions converge on Friday, more conversations are possible.


A European official claimed that the G7 is discussing a cap of $65-$70 per barrel for Russian oil transported by sea, but European Union member states have not yet reached an agreement on a price.


A higher price ceiling might encourage Russia to continue selling its oil, decreasing the possibility of a global oil supply shortage.


According to two sources, several Indian refiners are discounting Russian Urals crude by between $25 and $35 per barrel compared to the worldwide benchmark Brent oil. Urals is Russia's principal crude export.


Despite the obstacles, Bart Melek, global head of commodities market strategy at TD Securities, is rather optimistic about oil. "The Russian price ceiling is another aspect that contributed to the current price fall," he stated.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States climbed substantially during the previous week. [EIA/S]


In contrast, oil stockpiles decreased by 3.7 million barrels to 431.7 million barrels in the week ending November 18, despite a Reuters survey predicting a reduction of 1.1 million barrels.


China reported the highest daily number of COVID-19 cases since the outbreak began over three years ago on Wednesday. Local officials intensified measures to remove the breakouts, raising investor anxiety over the economy and demand for fuel.

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