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May 20th - According to Israeli sources on the evening of May 19th local time, despite US President Trumps announcement the previous day to cancel attacks on Iran, Israeli officials assessed that evening that Trump still favored resuming military action against Iran. Furthermore, Israeli sources also stated that joint preparations between Israel and the US for resuming military action against Iran have been completed and are currently awaiting Trumps decision.Citigroup: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in early 2027, the oil shock of the 1970s could be repeated.Citigroup: The outlook for oil in 2027 is extremely difficult to predict, but the median forecast is $80-90 per barrel.Citigroup still believes that the oil market is under-pricing "duration risk" and "tail risk".On May 20th, US Vice President Vance stated at a White House press briefing on May 19th that direct negotiations between the US and Iran had made "significant progress" in establishing communication channels and advancing the diplomatic process, but he declined to disclose the specific details of the current behind-the-scenes consultations. Vance stated that the US is still engaged in extensive "back and forth communication" with Iran, and that the negotiations are "making good progress." Vance revealed that he, along with Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Witkov, had previously held lengthy contacts with Iranian officials, primarily with two objectives: first, to rebuild the long-interrupted direct communication channels between the two countries; and second, to lay the foundation for subsequent formal negotiations. He said that the negotiating team was not "very confident" at the time that an agreement could be reached quickly, but believed they could "take an important step towards an agreement," and that this goal has now been achieved.

Oil Quiet As Price Cap Suggestion Assists in Relieving Supply Concerns

Skylar Williams

Nov 25, 2022 14:48

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Benchmark Brent oil declined on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained unchanged, hovering at two-month lows due to uncertainty about the degree to which a proposed G7 restriction on the price of Russian oil would limit supply.


A larger-than-anticipated rise in gasoline inventories in the United States and an expansion of COVID-19 limitations in China also knocked on oil prices.


At 15.15 p.m. ET (2015 GMT), Brent oil prices decreased 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.12 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures decreased 2 cents, to $77.96 per barrel.


Due to the Thanksgiving break in the United States, trade volumes were quite low.


The announcement on Wednesday that the expected price ceiling for Russian oil may surpass the current market level triggered a decrease of about 3 percent for both benchmarks.


European Union nations remained divided over what level to cap Russian oil prices to limit Moscow's ability to pay for its battle in Ukraine without causing a global oil supply shock; if positions converge on Friday, more conversations are possible.


A European official claimed that the G7 is discussing a cap of $65-$70 per barrel for Russian oil transported by sea, but European Union member states have not yet reached an agreement on a price.


A higher price ceiling might encourage Russia to continue selling its oil, decreasing the possibility of a global oil supply shortage.


According to two sources, several Indian refiners are discounting Russian Urals crude by between $25 and $35 per barrel compared to the worldwide benchmark Brent oil. Urals is Russia's principal crude export.


Despite the obstacles, Bart Melek, global head of commodities market strategy at TD Securities, is rather optimistic about oil. "The Russian price ceiling is another aspect that contributed to the current price fall," he stated.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that gasoline and distillate inventories in the United States climbed substantially during the previous week. [EIA/S]


In contrast, oil stockpiles decreased by 3.7 million barrels to 431.7 million barrels in the week ending November 18, despite a Reuters survey predicting a reduction of 1.1 million barrels.


China reported the highest daily number of COVID-19 cases since the outbreak began over three years ago on Wednesday. Local officials intensified measures to remove the breakouts, raising investor anxiety over the economy and demand for fuel.

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