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April 29th - Kalshis market pricing forecasts indicate that the market now sees only about a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before 2027, a significant drop from the 80-90% probability earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher interest rate environment for a longer period," suggesting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary easing.Interest Rate Decision 1. Interest Rate Level: The benchmark interest rate was kept unchanged at 2.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. 2. Forward Guidance: Further interest rate hikes may be necessary if rising energy prices lead to widespread inflation; interest rate cuts may be necessary if the US implements "significant" new trade restrictions. 3. Impact of Oil Prices: There is no clear evidence that oil prices have been widely transmitted to the prices of goods and services. We are prepared to take action if energy prices remain high. 4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth forecasts for this year and next have been revised upwards. The impact of the Middle East war on Canadas overall economic growth is expected to be minimal. 5. Inflation Expectations: The average inflation forecast for this year has been revised upwards, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged. Inflation is expected to peak at around 3% in April. Governors Speech 1. Forward Guidance: Interest rate hikes may be necessary if energy prices remain high, but there is currently no specific timetable. Todays statement should not be considered forward guidance. 3. Economy and Inflation: There is currently some spare capacity in the Canadian economy. Inflation expectations may not be as stable as before the pandemic, and there are risks involved. 4. Impact of Oil Prices: We do not believe that rising energy prices will quickly spread to the goods and services sector. Responses to high oil prices depend on whether upward pressure on the CPI will spread.The yield on UK 2-year government bonds rose to 4.58%, its highest level since March 27, up 13 basis points on the day.Iranian Foreign Ministry: The Iranian Foreign Minister spoke with the Polish Foreign Minister.The fire at the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia has been extinguished.

Oil Prices Fall as EIA Data Indicates Rising Domestic Production

Alina Haynes

Jun 16, 2022 11:29

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The EIA report indicates that domestic production rose to 12 million barrels per day. WTI oil fell down on the release of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which revealed a 2 million-barrel rise in crude stockpiles compared to the previous week. Analysts anticipated a reduction in crude inventories of 1.3 million barrels.

 

Imports, which grew by 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and averaged 7 million bpd, drove the increase. In addition, domestic oil output in the United States increased from 11.9 million bpd to 12 million bpd.

 

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Current crude stockpiles in the United States are around 14% below the five-year average for this time of year. To reverse the present upward trend in the oil markets, crude oil stocks must continue to grow.

 

WTI crude oil recently attempted to settle above the psychologically significant $120 mark, but lacked sufficient rising momentum and retreated.

 

Domestic oil output has hit 12 million barrels per day. This is significant for markets because it demonstrates that producers are responding to rising oil prices. Domestic production was 11.2 million bpd a year ago.

 

The underlying question is whether or whether high oil prices will ultimately put demand under strain. There are now no indications that the economy could not withstand oil at $120 a barrel. For instance, demand for gasoline remained robust, and overall stockpiles of motor gasoline declined by 0.7 million barrels.

 

In addition, dealers will continue to watch domestic oil output levels. In recent years, oil firms have prioritized financial restraint; it remains to be seen if they will be willing to raise output rapidly. Moreover, present oil prices are quite advantageous to producers.

 

In this view, the dynamics of domestic oil production will be a key trigger for the dynamics of the WTI oil price. If domestic production maintains unchanged at 12 million bpd and does not reach new heights, WTI oil will likely settle over $120.