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On July 22, Japans imports surged 25.4% year-on-year in June, reaching a record 11.3 trillion yen (approximately US$69.25 billion), driven by a weaker yen and soaring oil prices. This increase exceeded market expectations of 21% and was the fastest pace since November 2022, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen (approximately US$2.49 billion) in June, far exceeding the previously predicted 120 billion yen. While crude oil imports declined by 13.7% year-on-year, the import value surged by 59.3%, with yen-denominated unit prices also reaching a record high, highlighting that current inflationary pressures are largely driven by exchange rate factors rather than demand growth. This means that the yens appreciation has a more significant effect on alleviating import cost pressures than potential short-term changes in oil demand. On the export side, the resilience of demand from data centers related to artificial intelligence provides the Bank of Japan with real economic growth support that can be used to offset inflationary risks. This combination of factors suggests that the Bank of Japan is more likely to adopt a cautious, gradual interest rate hike path rather than a sudden and sharp tightening of policy. The market currently expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but will maintain its tightening policy stance.Malaysias Deputy Finance Minister: If crude oil prices are $90 per barrel, the monthly subsidy program for 95-octane gasoline will be RM2 billion, and the diesel subsidy will be RM1.5 billion.July 22 – According to the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, based on the unified accounting results for regional GDP, the provinces GDP in the first half of the year reached 2,931.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% at constant prices. Specifically, the added value of the primary industry was 125.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the added value of the secondary industry was 1,247.608 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 1,557.995 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%.Mitsubishi Electric and Sony Semiconductor Solutions have formed a joint venture to focus on artificial intelligence vision sensors for industrial manufacturing.July 22 – This morning (July 22), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, accelerate the modernization of customs, and contribute to the construction of a strong trading nation. Ports are gateways to the outside world. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, customs will accelerate the implementation of key border port projects under the national 15th Five-Year Plan, simultaneously implement the 57 port facility renovation projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and speed up the construction of railway ports such as Turugart and Ganqimaodu. This will help further optimize the layout of port opening.

Gold Price Prediction - Gold Prices Will Experience Declining Pressure as the Dollar Strengthens

Daniel Rogers

May 13, 2022 10:17

Gold prices are under pressure to decline as investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The market became more risk-averse as a result of rising inflation statistics. The dollar rises as investors flock to the currency for its safe-haven attraction.

 

In response to strong inflation data, investors shifted into bonds and sold equities, lowering benchmark yields. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell 7 basis points.

 

This week, initial unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 203,000 from the revised total of 202,000 previous week. The result conforms to the tight labor market. As workers are pushed to seek out better options, job postings and resignation rates have reached all-time highs.

 

The most recent CPI data indicates that the Fed is concerned about rising inflation. The CPI came in at 8.3%, which was stronger than anticipated. Nonetheless, the reading was lower than March's reading of 8.5%. The data supports the Fed's strategy to aggressively tighten interest rates in response to rising inflationary pressures.

Technical Evaluation

Gold prices fall below the 200-day moving average of $1,836 and are subject to bearish pressure that might drive gold prices to $1,800. Near the 200-day moving average at 1,836 is viewed as support. Near the 10-day moving average of 1,874, there is expected to be resistance.

 

As a result of the Fast Stochastic's crossover sell signal, short-term momentum is negative. As the fast stochastic displays a value of 9.79 below the oversold threshold of 20, prices are oversold.

 

As the MACD produces a crossover sell signal, medium-term momentum has gone negative. This occurs when the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average crosses below the MACD line's 9-day moving average.

 

The trajectory of the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is negative, indicating falling prices.

 

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