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International oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.Spot gold and silver traded in a volatile range. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals, converted between domestic and international prices.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.43% and spot palladium rose 0.37%.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 1.92%.On July 15th, CICC Research Report stated that the seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, and the year-on-year increase fell back to 3.5%; the core CPI showed zero month-on-month growth and rose by 2.6% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. The decline in energy prices is the main reason for the cooling of inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the United States and Iran has escalated again, and the outlook for energy inflation is subject to fluctuations. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging. The mismatch between supply and demand of upstream hardware, the price increase of software and peripheral products, and the boost to aggregate demand from AI capital expenditure may all make core inflation more sticky. In terms of policy, the cooling of inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, but Wallers recent statements show [1] that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the possibility of "precautionary rate hikes". We maintain our baseline judgment of no rate hikes this year, but suggest that the threshold for rate hikes has already decreased. Once one or two overheated inflation data appear, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to further discuss the option of raising interest rates.

Gold Price Prediction - Gold Prices Will Experience Declining Pressure as the Dollar Strengthens

Daniel Rogers

May 13, 2022 10:17

Gold prices are under pressure to decline as investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The market became more risk-averse as a result of rising inflation statistics. The dollar rises as investors flock to the currency for its safe-haven attraction.

 

In response to strong inflation data, investors shifted into bonds and sold equities, lowering benchmark yields. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell 7 basis points.

 

This week, initial unemployment claims increased by 1,000 to 203,000 from the revised total of 202,000 previous week. The result conforms to the tight labor market. As workers are pushed to seek out better options, job postings and resignation rates have reached all-time highs.

 

The most recent CPI data indicates that the Fed is concerned about rising inflation. The CPI came in at 8.3%, which was stronger than anticipated. Nonetheless, the reading was lower than March's reading of 8.5%. The data supports the Fed's strategy to aggressively tighten interest rates in response to rising inflationary pressures.

Technical Evaluation

Gold prices fall below the 200-day moving average of $1,836 and are subject to bearish pressure that might drive gold prices to $1,800. Near the 200-day moving average at 1,836 is viewed as support. Near the 10-day moving average of 1,874, there is expected to be resistance.

 

As a result of the Fast Stochastic's crossover sell signal, short-term momentum is negative. As the fast stochastic displays a value of 9.79 below the oversold threshold of 20, prices are oversold.

 

As the MACD produces a crossover sell signal, medium-term momentum has gone negative. This occurs when the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average crosses below the MACD line's 9-day moving average.

 

The trajectory of the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is negative, indicating falling prices.

 

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