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January 14th - According to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in the U.S. rose 5.1% month-over-month in December. On a monthly basis, home sales increased in all regions. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased in the South, remained flat in the Midwest and West, and declined in the Northeast. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated, "2025 will remain a challenging year for homebuyers, with record high home prices and historically low existing home sales. However, market conditions began to improve in the fourth quarter, with mortgage rates declining and home price growth slowing. After seasonal adjustment, December home sales reached their highest level in nearly three years, with widespread increases across all four major regions." The economist added, "Inventory levels remain tight. Homeowners are more cautious in deciding whether to list or withdraw their properties due to low seller willingness to sell. Similar to previous years, more homes are expected to enter the market starting in February."On January 14th, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Paulson reiterated on Wednesday that she expects the Fed to cut short-term interest rates later this year if the economy performs in line with her expectations of moderate inflation and a stable job market. In prepared remarks for a Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce event, Paulson stated, "My baseline expectations are rather modest," anticipating inflation to fall to around 2% by the end of the year, a stable job market, and economic growth remaining at around 2%. She noted, "If all of this happens, then some modest adjustments to the federal funds rate later this year might be appropriate." Regarding the job market, Paulson reiterated, "The labor market is clearly slowing, but it hasnt collapsed." She believes risks have increased, which is one of the key reasons she supported the FOMCs 75-basis-point rate cut last year.US business inventories rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, below the expected 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.20%.US existing home sales rose 5.1% month-over-month in December, below the expected 2.2% and the previous months figure revised up from 0.50% to 0.7%.Federal Reserves Paulson: The U.S. economy is not doing well in every aspect right now.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.