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On January 26th, Goldman Sachs predicted a uneventful January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with most parties expected to agree to keep interest rates unchanged. The bank noted that Governors Waller and Bowman are likely to support this decision, while Stephen Milan will be the only dissenting voice. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2026, with the first cut possibly in June.U.S. durable goods orders in November 2025 saw their biggest increase in six months, driven primarily by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment. According to the Commerce Department, durable goods orders rose 5.3%, compared to a revised 2.1% decline in the previous month. Data released Monday also showed that core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft and military equipment (reflecting business investment in equipment), rose 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding expectations.On January 26, Indian Trade Minister Rajesh Agrawal announced that India and the European Union had completed negotiations on a highly anticipated trade agreement. This move is considered historic by both sides amid strained relations between the United States and the EU. Agrawal stated, "This will be a balanced and forward-looking agreement aimed at deepening economic integration with the EU. The agreement will promote bilateral trade and investment."U.S. durable goods orders rose 5.3% month-on-month in November, the largest increase since May 2025.U.S. durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.5% month-on-month in November, below the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.10%.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.

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