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Futures News, May 21st: Driven by fluctuating geopolitical tensions, the average crude oil price rose this cycle, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate turned positive. At 24:00 today (May 21st), the retail price limits for refined oil products will be raised. The retail price limits for gasoline and diesel will increase by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to an increase of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel. Future international oil prices will fluctuate repeatedly around the progress of US-Iran negotiations, and the next cycle is expected to show a weak trend and high volatility. The new cycles crude oil change rate will start with a negative value, corresponding to a decrease of 60 yuan/ton on the first day. The price adjustment window is at 24:00 on June 4th.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Medium- to long-term inflation expectations have not deviated significantly.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Wage growth is still slowing.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: In adverse circumstances, it may be necessary to raise interest rates to maintain credibility. We are moving towards an adverse scenario.May 21st, Futures.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures prices have continued to fall sharply in recent intraday trading, mainly due to the break below the short-term upward channel. Previously, this channel dominated market movements, but the current break has exacerbated selling pressure, pushing market momentum towards a bearish trend. At the same time, the 50-day moving average (EMA) continues to exert dynamic negative pressure on prices, and the current price is trading below it, further increasing the likelihood of further declines in the near future. Meanwhile, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, it continues to release negative signals, reflecting weak buying momentum and the continued dominance of bears. Limited fluctuations are expected in the short term, but it is unlikely to change the current bearish pattern.

Asian Markets Exhale An Exhalation of Relief Following The Ueda Hearing

Aria Thomas

Feb 24, 2023 11:21

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Asian markets heaved a sigh of relief on Friday after the incoming head of Japan's central bank allayed concerns of an early end to ultra-loose monetary policy, which pushed global bond yields lower.


Kazuo Ueda, who will succeed Haruhiko Kuroda as governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in April, began a three-hour speech to parliament at 9:30 a.m. (00:30 GMT), providing markets with their first look at how the newly constituted central bank might navigate an exit from ultra-low interest rates.


Ueda has pledged to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy because inflation has yet to meet the central bank's 2% target sustainably and steadily, and there was little indication that he would soon unwind the BOJ's yield curve control policy (YCC).


"There have been strong hopes that Ueda will bring a hawkish slant to the BOJ, but his confirmation speech indicates otherwise," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.


Ueda's confirmation hearing in the lower house occurs as markets renew their assault on YCC and place wagers on a near-term increase in interest rates.


The yield on Japan's five-year government bonds decreased to 0.235% from 0.240% at the previous market close. Due to a lack of liquidity, ten-year bonds did not trade early on Friday, but bond futures advanced.


The Nikkei stock index increased by 1%.


The yen remained volatile. It reversed an early rise to trade at 134.71 per dollar, essentially unchanged.


Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac, stated, "Overall, Ueda is working hard to present himself as delivering continuity - at least initially." "Now is not the moment for him to implement his own policies; that is not why the government chose him."


Japan's annual core consumer inflation reached a new 41-year high of 4.2% in January, putting pressure on the central bank to wind down its vast stimulus program.


In other markets, equities were mixed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific equities excluding Japan fell 0.2% and is on track for a 1.5% weekly decline.


Chinese blue chips and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, while Australia's resource-rich stocks rose 0.2%.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite all ended Thursday in positive territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.33%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.53%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.7%.


Investors anticipated the publication of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for January on Friday. The index is anticipated to rise 4.3% annually, compared to 4.4% the previous month.


Overnight, robust data, including an unexpected decline in new unemployment claims and a revised increase in the PCE price index for the fourth quarter, indicated some economic strength.


The dollar index, which compares the safe-haven dollar to six other currencies, was hovering at 104.63, close to a seven-week high of 104.78.


On Friday, Treasury yields declined marginally. The yield on benchmark 10-year government bonds fell as low as 3.8590 percent, down from the previous close of 3.8810 percent.


The yield on two-year bonds hovered at 4.6810 percent, compared to the previous close of 4.6930 percent.


Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $82.71 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.6% to $75.90 on the energy market.


Gold was marginally greater. The spot price of gold was $1825.13 per ounce.