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August 24th - This week, bond investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs speech in Jackson Hole. The market is seeking his response to persistent inflation and fiscal issues, and long-term Treasury bonds may face further sell-off risks. Warsh has rarely provided forward-looking policy guidance since taking office in May. His speech following the last monetary policy meeting triggered a massive sell-off in the bond market, highlighting the markets high sensitivity to his speech on Friday. Molly Brooks, U.S. interest rate strategist at TD Securities, said, "I think if he continues to not provide more information, the market will be disappointed, which could further exacerbate the recent sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds." Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at National Mutual Insurance, said that factors continuing to weigh on the bond market remain, including fiscal concerns, inflation, and market uncertainty about the Feds response. Dhiraj Narula, interest rate strategist at HSBC, said this provides Warsh with an opportunity to reassure investors by clarifying his policy outlook. He said, "In our view, if Chairman Warsh can make some judgments about potential inflationary pressures, it could be enough to reduce the term premium associated with uncertainty."On August 24th, the UKs Office for Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continued to decline over the past 48 hours, with shipping activity suppressed and the number of vessels passing through in both directions in single digits. The UKMTO report stated that no confirmed attacks or interference incidents were detected, but noted that Iranian threats and harassment activities persist, including drone overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant ships, and occasional VHF radio calls. These actions "continue to demonstrate Irans intention to maintain a presence along key shipping lanes and to continue to exert pressure on transit vessels." Meanwhile, the UKMTO stated that commercial traffic in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has also "continued to decline" following the Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia on July 20th.The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO) stated that shipping traffic in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has declined.On August 24, Canadian Ambassador to the United States Mark Wiseman stated that trade negotiations between Canada and the US broke down on the evening of August 22 due to multiple issues, including discrepancies between the written text of a potential agreement and what Canada believed to be the consensus reached between the two sides. In an interview on August 23, Wiseman said that no single issue led to the failure of the negotiations. The breakdown in negotiations subsequently triggered a new round of tariffs and could further escalate the Canada-US trade dispute.Iraqi Prime Ministers Security Advisor: We have proposed to Iran and Saudi Arabia the establishment of a unified security coordination committee.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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