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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: Market sentiment was alternately dominated by US macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions, with gold experiencing its strongest weekly performance this year last week. Since the second half of the year, gold price movements have shown signs of desensitization to US-Iran geopolitical tensions, with market focus primarily on whether the Federal Reserve "dares" to raise interest rates. Previously, US economic data showed resilience, but inflation data was somewhat stubborn, leading to a surge in expectations of a rate hike, particularly with the probability of a rate hike at the Feds September meeting rising. However, with the weakening performance of US stocks at their high levels and the instability of employment data, the market questioned the Feds, especially Warshs, "hawkish" approach. The unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data directly shattered previous market pricing in a September rate hike, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to weaken in tandem, reinforcing the view that the US is struggling between high debt and persistent inflation. Furthermore, while previous outflows from gold ETFs dealt a blow to the market, data from the World Gold Council showed that central banks made a record net purchase of 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, with the Peoples Bank of China increasing its gold purchases for five consecutive months, further boosting market confidence. Therefore, overall, the view that the current position is the bottom range for gold is becoming more solidified, and it is advisable to buy on dips. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether there is a risk of profit-taking due to short-term emotional euphoria after golds continuous rise.The Central Bank of Uzbekistan reported that its gold and foreign exchange reserves totaled $64.347 billion in July (up from $63.757 billion previously).Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.02%, German DAX futures fell 0.02%, and UK FTSE 100 futures fell 0.39%.CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil and Gas Company: We will continue to closely monitor the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and consider various options.August 10th - According to the latest mobile phone industry research from TrendForce, rising component prices, particularly memory chips, are pushing up the overall cost of Apples upcoming iPhone 18 series. Taking the 256GB versions BOM (Bill of Materials) cost as an example, the estimated annual increase is around 38%, inevitably leading to a higher selling price. To avoid impacting consumer purchasing decisions, Apple may control the price increase by reducing profit margins in exchange for market share expansion.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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