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August 17th - Japanese automakers are facing a double whammy from the impact of the Iran war and the potential for a stronger yen. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have recently benefited from the historically weak yen, with Toyota and Honda raising their full-year earnings forecasts and Nissan achieving its first profit in nearly two years. However, this positive effect may reverse as the yen strengthens. Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, stated that a stronger yen will force automakers to choose between raising prices overseas and sacrificing profits. The former could lead to a decline in market share, while the latter would compress the yen value of overseas profits. Bernstein predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the yen, Japanese automakers operating profits will typically be affected by about 2%, with some companies potentially experiencing an impact of up to 4%. Analysts also believe that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could drive up the costs of key raw materials such as naphtha, resins, aluminum, copper, steel, and semiconductors, and increase shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, further squeezing automakers profit margins.Japans 20-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 3.815%.On August 17th, the Foshan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice regarding adjustments to the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan. The notice clarifies that starting September 1, 2026, the minimum contribution level for housing provident funds in Foshan will be adjusted. Specifically, the minimum contribution base will be set at the minimum wage standard for employed workers in Foshan, which is 2300 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for employed workers will be 115 yuan for both the individual and employer contributions, totaling 230 yuan. The minimum monthly contribution for self-employed individuals will also be 230 yuan.August 17th - The upcoming New Zealand general election in November may complicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) monetary policy tightening, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy believes the RBNZ is still very likely to raise interest rates in October. The RBNZ has clearly stated its intention to return monetary policy to a neutral level. ANZ estimates the neutral interest rate to be around 3% or slightly above 3%, while the current policy rate is 2.50%. Croy stated that with policy remaining stimulative and inflation above target, there is no reason for the RBNZ to pause rate hikes. He believes the current situation is that the RBNZ needs to find a reason not to raise rates in October.On August 17, Belgorod Oblasts acting governor, Shuvaev, posted on social media that a village in the Valuisky district of the oblast was attacked by Ukrainian forces, resulting in 6 deaths and 4 injuries.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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