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September 4th - Analyst Jessica Coacci points out that in a labor market where both hiring and layoffs are at low levels, some Americans find it difficult to re-enter the job market once they lose their jobs. Data from Fridays employment reports household survey showed that 27% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This percentage has remained relatively stable over the past year or so.On September 4th, analyst Ben Casselman pointed out regarding the US August non-farm payroll data that the labor force participation rate (the proportion of people aged 25 to 54 who are employed or actively seeking employment) jumped to its highest level in 20 years last year, but fell sharply in June this year. Initially, the decline in June seemed like an isolated incident, but the lack of a rebound in July and August suggests that this decline may be a real trend. The rate is still at a fairly high level, higher than before the pandemic, but its performance is no longer as impressive as before.September 4th - Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data for August fueled market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, causing U.S. stock index futures to fall. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, stated, "Even the most ardent doves will find it difficult to justify keeping rates unchanged from the August jobs report. The significant increase in nonfarm payrolls was driven by a broadly strong performance in the non-healthcare private sector, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged despite a sharp rebound in the labor force participation rate." S&P 500 futures fell 17.5 points during the session.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Artificial intelligence data centers are creating new jobs in utilities.September 4th - According to foreign media reports, Fridays non-farm payroll report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in the US in August, prompting traders to increase their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month. Short-term interest rate futures prices currently indicate that the market believes there is approximately a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike at its September meeting, up from about 55% before the non-farm payroll report was released. The report showed that US employers added almost three times the number of jobs in August that economists had expected.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.