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A Reuters poll released Thursday indicated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates for the second and final time on September 10, marking its shortest rate hike cycle in 15 years. Most economists in the poll believe that rising energy prices are unlikely to trigger widespread inflationary pressures. Despite renewed tensions in the Middle East in recent days and a sharp rise in global bond yields over the past week, forecasters focusing on the ECB maintain that the central bank is unwilling to add further pressure to the fragile economy. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, expects the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points in September and then stop. He stated, "Given the public finance difficulties and soaring bond yields, its still hard to imagine the ECB really wanting to add fuel to the fire. In other words, its hard to imagine the ECB being willing to risk a recession to deal with what is still a typical supply-side shock."A Reuters poll shows economists expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates for the second time in September, after which it will stop raising rates.A Reuters poll showed that 58 of the 64 economists surveyed expect the European Central Banks deposit rate to reach 2.50% by the end of 2026 (compared to 55 of the 69 economists surveyed in August).A Reuters poll of 65 economists showed that the European Central Bank expects to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its meeting on September 10.September 3rd - According to multiple pharmaceutical companies, the 2026 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug Catalog negotiation and price consultation for the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog will commence on September 5th at the National Peoples Congress Conference Center. Preliminary communication between the National Healthcare Security Administration and negotiating companies was completed last week. This year, price consultation for the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog will also be conducted concurrently, leading to the formulation of a new version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog. Industry insiders predict that this years on-site negotiation and price consultation for the national medical insurance catalog adjustment and the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog will last 4-5 days.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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