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1. Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be a rate cut, but no earlier than the second half of 2027. 2. Commerzbank: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, and in the medium term, the RBAs next move after holding rates steady will be a rate cut. 3. MFS Investment Management: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, while reiterating its readiness to further tighten policy to address persistently high inflation. 4. Wells Fargo: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with a 25 basis point rate hike anticipated in September, followed by a gradual easing cycle in the second half of 2027. 5. IFM Investors: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with second-quarter CPI data giving the bank reason to remain cautious, but it has not locked in a rate cut as the next move. 6. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the energy cost pass-through to consumers caused by the Middle East conflict has not yet been sustained, but the bank will maintain a hawkish stance. 7. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady and continue using hawkish rhetoric. However, if the bank lowers its inflation forecast, the market will interpret this as opening the door to further easing. 8. ING: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Overall, price pressures have eased faster than the RBA anticipated, further strengthening the case for keeping rates unchanged until the end of the year. 9. TD Securities: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, the bank will not significantly lower its inflation forecast, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook due to high oil prices.Futures News, August 11th: Over the weekend, negotiations between Iran and the US failed as Iran raised its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the US found unacceptable. With the Strait remaining closed, oil prices continued to rise, with US crude oil fluctuating above $80. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Trump has also raised his demands, leading to a stalemate. Given the closure of the Strait and the reduced efficiency of tanker passage, oil prices are expected to remain relatively strong.August 11 – From July 30 to August 8, 2026, Yue Xiaoyong, Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. During his stay in Turkey, Yue Xiaoyong held consultations with Erkina, Director General of the South Asia Department of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and exchanged in-depth views on issues of common concern. During his visits to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Yue Xiaoyong exchanged views with relevant officials of both countries on promoting improved development relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.According to the official measurement of the China Earthquake Networks Center, a magnitude 3.3 earthquake occurred in Shaya County, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang (39.61 degrees north latitude, 82.78 degrees east longitude) at 09:56 on August 11, with a focal depth of 23 kilometers.The main contract for the container shipping index (European route) fell by more than 5.00% during the day, and is currently trading at 1554.5 points.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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