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Federal Reserves Goolsby: The U.S. economy remains stable.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand: The Financial Policy Committee considered house price developments, the recent risk profile of mortgage loans, and the financial stress on borrowers.Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Maintains loan-to-value ratio (LVR) setting.On August 14th, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 100% on imported drones and components, citing national security threats. The proclamation stipulates a 100% ad valorem tariff on highly sensitive drones of certain sizes or functions, as well as their docking stations and certain key components. This category includes drones with a maximum takeoff weight exceeding 25 kg and drones with thermal imaging capabilities. Additionally, a 25% ad valorem tariff will be imposed on certain smaller drones and other drone components that do not possess specific functions. The proclamation also stipulates a 15% ad valorem tariff on drones and components from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, and Switzerland. Furthermore, a 10% ad valorem tariff will be imposed on drones from the UK, provided that their hardware, software, and technology are substantially derived from the aforementioned countries and regions, as well as the US. The proclamation states that the tariffs will take effect 21 days after the signing date. For non-highly sensitive drone components, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after the signing date.Conflict Situation: 1. Iranian Supreme Leaders advisor: Conflict may escalate if conditions are not met. 2. US Defense Secretary Hergsays: The US can maintain the blockade against Iran for an extended period if necessary. 3. According to the Jerusalem Post: Saudi Arabia is considering supporting a ground offensive by Yemeni forces to retake the Red Sea coast from the Houthis. 4. The Houthi-controlled Saba News Agency reported that the group attacked the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia, with two drones. 5. The Houthis warned that if Saudi Arabia launches a full-scale offensive against Yemen, they will target Saudi oil fields, airports, and power and water infrastructure. 6. Saudi media: The Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked a key facility in Harikia, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with two ballistic missiles. 7. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE: Two ships were attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday; no injuries were reported. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Iran: No vessel can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. 2. UK Maritime Trade Organization: Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. 3. According to Iranian media Fars News: Irans oil spill cleanup in the Strait of Hormuz is entering its final stage. 4. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz is closed; Iran has full and firm control over activities within the strait. The truth must be seen on the battlefield, not by US announcements and rhetoric. Peace Negotiations 1. Trumps son-in-law plans to visit Israel next week to discuss the Gaza issue. 2. The Saudi Crown Prince and the commander of the US Central Command exchanged views on deepening defense cooperation and de-escalating regional tensions. Other Matters 1. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: The US has long misjudged the situation due to intelligence failures. 2. UN envoy warns Yemen faces the risk of re-entering large-scale conflict. 3. The USS Washington is deployed to the Middle East for troop rotation; the crew of the USS Lincoln are exhausted and questioned by lawmakers. 4. The US military is building its first multinational drone task force to strengthen its unmanned combat capabilities in the Middle East. 5. US Vice President Vance: The Iran issue will ultimately end with the US in a dominant position. The United States has many tools at its disposal regarding its policy toward Iran. 6. Saudi Arabias Ministry of Defense: 39 countries participated in the third planning meeting of the multinational maritime defense coalition held in Jeddah; 15 countries have signed a joint statement, and 13 countries have completed the procedures and formally joined the coalition. 7. Iran set the price of its September Iranian light crude oil sold to Asia at a discount of $4.70 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai benchmark.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.