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1. Monday: ① Data: Switzerlands June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozones July Sentix investor confidence index, Eurozones May PPI month-on-month rate, Eurozones May retail sales month-on-month rate; US June S&P Global Services PMI final reading, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Stress Index. ② Events: Speeches by Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Winsch, and Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Seim. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Germanys May seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate; UKs June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month rate; Frances May trade balance; US ADP employment change week-on-week for the week ending June 20, US May trade balance; Chinas June foreign exchange reserves. ② Events: Turkey hosts the NATO summit until July 8; the US Trade Representatives Office holds a public hearing to consider a proposal to impose additional tariffs on 60 economies worldwide. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; Japans May trade balance; New Zealands RBNZ interest rate decision for the week ending July 8; US May wholesale sales month-on-month; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; US EIA strategic petroleum reserves for the week ending July 3. ② Events: EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; RBNZ Governor Brehman holds a monetary policy press conference. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction - winning yield for the week ending July 8; US 10-year Treasury auction - bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending July 8; Chinas June CPI year-on-year rate; Germanys May seasonally adjusted trade balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4; US June existing home sales (annualized); US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending July 3. ② Events: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the European Central Bank releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech. 5. Friday: ① Data: Germanys final June CPI month-on-month rate; Frances final June CPI month-on-month rate; Switzerlands June consumer confidence index; Canadas June employment change; Chinas June M2 money supply year-on-year rate. ② Events: SK Hynixs American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq on July 10; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech; the IEA releases its monthly oil market report. ③ Holiday: The New Zealand Stock Exchange is closed. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 10.Two Iraqi oil officials said that Iraqs total oil exports in June amounted to approximately 24.5 million barrels.July 5th - George Gonsalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said that Warshs concise style makes the June meeting minutes more significant than usual, providing a valuable perspective on the differing positions among Federal Reserve officials. "The minutes will become even more important because, until now, we didnt know what the Fed was thinking," Gonsalves said. "It will be very enlightening to see how they debated and what they focused on." He added that some investors have questioned Warshs "hands-off" approach, and many want greater transparency. Many market participants are not used to reduced information and remain quite skeptical about how long the Fed can maintain this stance. Now we can only try to decipher the meaning between the lines.On July 5th, local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated in a broadcast that Ukrainian armed forces have intensified their attacks on Russian infrastructure due to the deteriorating situation on the front lines. The Russian military is establishing a secure buffer zone along the border, and concrete results are already visible. He also stated that Russian troops are steadily advancing according to plan in special military operations areas. Peskov stated that the EUs transformation into a military-political bloc has further exacerbated the Ukraine issue. Russia hopes the EU will not undermine the prospects for peace negotiations. Peskov also stated that Russia remains open to peace negotiations and looks forward to the US playing a mediating role. Russia has always welcomed visits from US Presidential Envoy Witkov and Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner. Even with their extended absence, Russia continues to maintain contact with the US through existing channels.July 5 - According to sources from the Yemeni military and medical departments, Houthi rebels launched an attack on Hodeidah province on the Red Sea coast on July 4, killing at least 14 Yemeni government soldiers and injuring several others.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.