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On June 25th, Investinglive analysts pointed out that Irans warning to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to coordinate with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard directly escalated Irans stance on the issue of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and will immediately push up risk premiums for tanker freight rates and crude oil prices. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning that ships using unauthorized routes will face penalties is not just rhetoric, but an action statement that gives the Iranian Navy a legal and institutional basis to intercept, board, or seize ships that do not comply with regulations. The mandatory Channel 16 coordination requirement effectively gives Tehran control over information and consent for all ships transiting the strait. For the energy market, the key question is whether this statement is a response to specific alternative routes that the US or Gulf states may propose in the context of normalized shipping after a ceasefire, or whether it represents Irans preemptive defense of its sovereignty before facing pressure to reopen the transit route. Regardless of the interpretation, it is bearish for supply security but bullish for crude oil prices in the near term.According to Japanese sources, the earthquake that struck off the coast of Iwate Prefecture around 10:00 a.m. local time on the 25th has injured at least four people.Market sources indicate that Kioxia plans to list its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in the United States in April or May next year.Hua Hong Power (01347.HK) shares broke through HK$200, hitting a new all-time high, with a year-to-date increase of over 170%.On June 25th, Lloyd Chan, senior foreign exchange analyst at MUFG Bank, stated in a research report that the Thai baht and other Asian currencies are under pressure against the US dollar in an environment where US interest rates are expected to remain high for an extended period. He said this "is likely to exert downward pressure on regional currencies in the short term, especially for those with lower yields." MUFG Bank maintains a negative view on the recent performance of the Thai baht. Chan said, "While the Bank of Thailand expects more robust economic growth this year, concerns remain that economic growth remains slow and uneven."

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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