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On July 30th, Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated in a report that the Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates, given the dissenting votes of three committee members, appeared more like an internal debate than a consensus decision, confirming market expectations of a delicate balance before the meeting. The statement offered little new information, but these dissenting opinions conveyed a clear message: the Fed is not yet confident that the battle against inflation has been won. While a rate cut is currently unlikely, investors cannot rule out the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year. Principal Asset Managements basic assumption remains that the Fed will remain on hold until the end of 2026 as underlying inflationary pressures ease, "but confidence in this view is low."On July 30th, Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Chambord Investment Management, stated that the Federal Reserves decision to keep interest rates unchanged was "not a foregone conclusion," calling it a "disturbing pause." Despite some constructive inflation data, oil prices surged again amid increased geopolitical uncertainty. We are increasingly convinced that this is no longer a Fed that reveals its every move well in advance, nor one that frequently shares its thoughts on various occasions.On July 30th, Ed Hutchings, Head of Interest Rates at Aviva Investors, stated in a report that investors will have to adapt to greater uncertainty under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh. While the Feds decision to maintain interest rates was largely in line with expectations, considerable uncertainty existed before the meeting regarding the outcome and subsequent wording. Under the new Fed Chairman, this appears to be something investors will have to adjust to.TD Cowen: Lowered its price target for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) from $225 to $175.French household spending rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, compared with 0.30% in the previous month.

U.S. crude oil trading strategy on October 5: OPEC+ releases positive, but we still need to be wary of overbought signals!

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), US crude oil rose slightly. The news of short-term OPEC+'s gradual increase in production is expected to continue to ferment, but at the same time, overbought signals suggest that there is a risk of correction. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and radicals continue to buy more on dips.


Daily level: OPEC+ agreed on Monday to stick to the existing agreement and gradually increase oil production. This news caused oil prices to rise rapidly.

The positives in the day are expected to continue to ferment, but the general risk aversion is not conducive to rising oil prices.

Technical indicators are mixed. The moving average system is long. MACD maintains the golden cross, but the RSI has overbought signals, suggesting a callback risk. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and activists continue to buy more on dips.

The upper resistance level focuses on the October 4 high of 78.38, and further attention is paid to the 79 mark and the 80 psychological mark.

Below support levels focus on the 5-day moving average 76.17, and further focus on the 10-day moving average 74.98 and the September 15 high of 73.14.

(U.S. crude oil daily chart)

Resistance levels: 78.38; 79.00; 80.00
Support levels: 76.17; 74.98; 73.14

Short-term operating suggestions: conservatives wait and see, radicals do more on dips.

At 14:47 GMT+8, U.S. crude oil was quoted at $77.76 per barrel.