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HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) repurchased 2.7 million shares for HK$267.8 million on August 18.Chow Sang Sang (00116.HK): Profit attributable to owners of the Company from continuing operations for the six months ended June 30, 2025 is expected to be between HK$900 million and HK$920 million, compared with HK$520 million in the same period of 2024.The onshore RMB closed at 7.1820 against the US dollar at 16:30 on August 19, down 28 points from the previous trading day.1. State Street: We expect Powell to pave the way for rate cuts starting in September and continuing through the end of the year. 2. ANZ: Powell may hint at a return to interest rate normalization at the Jackson Hole symposium. 3. UBS: Given last weeks data, Powell may be willing to signal a September rate cut at the meeting. 4. UniCredit: We expect the Fed to return to its pre-2020 rhetoric. On the surface, this move has a slightly hawkish tone. 5. Russell Investments: The Jackson Hole meeting may cool expectations of a Fed rate cut, making a September rate cut "possible" rather than "certain," and the cut will be 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points. 6. ING: The recent expressions of concern by three Fed officials (Daly, Cook, and Kashkari) about the deteriorating job market appear to be a precursor to a more dovish official stance at the Jackson Hole symposium. 7. Oxford Economics: We expect the Fed to remain on hold until December, and we expect Powell to remain tight-lipped at Jackson Hole. He may be more like an owl - waiting and watching - rather than a hawk or a dove. 8. MUFG: The risk of the Jackson Hole meeting is that Powell may not provide a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, thereby buying more time for the Fed to continue to evaluate the upcoming data before the September FOMC meeting. This may help curb the downward pressure on the US dollar in the short term. 9. Bank of America: We are skeptical about the Feds interest rate cuts this year. Powell said in July that he would be satisfied with low job growth as long as the unemployment rate remained in a narrow range. Now it seems that this vision is becoming a reality, and Powells speech at Jackson Hole will give him an opportunity to "walk the talk."On August 19th, ING Bank (INGB) predicted that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, in line with market expectations. The upcoming forecast for the new interest rate path is expected to fully reflect expectations of another 25 basis point cut to 2.75% in November. However, as the market has already fully priced in the terminal rate of 2.75%, even if the RBNZ confirms this path, it will not be interpreted as an unexpectedly dovish signal. ING Bank maintains its forecast of a 25 basis point rate cut in August and November, with the November cut marking the end of the current easing cycle.

US Dollar Index Follows Yields Higher To Reclaim Monthly High Prior To Powell's Speech

Daniel Rogers

Feb 07, 2023 15:55

 US Dollar Index.png

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges to 103.60 as buyers flex their muscles ahead of an important speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. By tracking positive US Treasury bond yields and hawkish Fed worries, the dollar's signal versus the six major currencies keeps DXY bulls happy.

 

However, statements by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Vice President Joe Biden help DXY bulls by delaying recession fears and bolstering hawkish wagers on the Fed's impending actions. In their respective remarks, both policymakers, however, minimized the probability of a U.S. recession. In response to favorable US data, traders increased their hawkish wagers on the Fed, which contributed to the dollar's strength.

 

Notably, last week's upbeat US employment, wage, and activity figures reignited optimism that the Federal Reserve still has work to do before it can welcome rate hawks and policy doves.

 

Recent discussions regarding Sino-American relations, especially after the United States shot down a Chinese balloon and postponed a diplomatic visit to Beijing, provided additional support for the DXY bulls the day before, along with fading recession fears and a buoyant US data-driven hawkish Fed bias. Recent comments by US Vice President Joe Biden appear reassuring, as he noted, "The balloon incident does not impair US-China relations."

 

Wall Street ended in the red as 10-year US Treasury bond yields extended Friday's rally, allowing the DXY to climb for a third consecutive day.

 

Aside from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and US Vice President Joe Biden's State of the Union (SOTU) address, the US Dollar Index may move sideways in the near future. If Powell chooses to laud recent economic advances in the United States and reiterates his hawkish stance on monetary policy, the DXY might extend its gains.


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