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The international gold price is bearish and will not be short for the time being. After it falls below $1738, the short position will enter the market.

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

On Friday (October 1), the spot gold price was basically stable, not far from the one-week high of US$1,764.26 per ounce recorded on the previous trading day. Because of the unexpected increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced overnight, and some Fed officials said the need to maintain low interest rates.

At 15:15 GMT+8, spot gold fell 0.04% to 1756.25 US dollars per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.02% to 1756.7 US dollars per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 94.284.


On Thursday (September 30), the gold price rebounded sharply from the low point of $1,721.76 per ounce set on August 10 the previous day, and closed up nearly 1.8% in the final trading; because the U.S. dollar index fell back to a new high of 94.504 since September 28 , The final trade closed down more than 0.1%.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said on Thursday (September 30) that he believes that the current supply shocks pushing up prices will be eased next year, and the United States still needs to maintain low interest rates in order to bring the inflation rate back to 2% for a long time.

Data released on Thursday showed that as of the week of September 25, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose to 362,000, higher than market expectations of 330,000 and higher than the previous value of 351,000. .

The U.S. Congress passed a provisional bill on Thursday to avoid a government shutdown, but as the House of Representatives prepares to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, President Biden’s agenda is facing another test.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to quarrel over whether to grant the Treasury Department a debt authorization that exceeds the current legal debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. Treasury Secretary Yellen estimated that if Congress does not take action, the United States may have an unprecedented debt default around October 18.

Standard & Poor's Global Ratings warned on Thursday that if the United States defaults on debt, it will have "serious and extraordinary" consequences for financial markets. However, the agency added that it is expected that the US Congress will eventually resolve the debt ceiling issue in time.

On the daily chart, the price of gold fell below the 38.2% target of the downward (3) wave that started from $1834 at $1744. The market outlook is expected to further drop to the 61.8% target at $1688. (3) Wave is a sub-wave of the downward ((Y)) wave that started from 1917 USD, and ((Y)) belongs to the adjusted IV wave that started from 2075 USD 5.

On the hourly chart, the price of gold is expected to start a five-wave downward trend from US$1,764. It is expected to fall below the 38.2% target of US$1748, and further drop to the 61.8% target of US$1738. Wave 5 is the sub-wave of (3) Wave.

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