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Counterpoint: Apples iPhone sales in China fell 6% from July to August.According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.

The US Stock Markets Continue to Slump

Alina Haynes

Apr 27, 2022 10:07

 截屏2022-04-27 上午9.34.04.png

 

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 

The S&P 500 has fallen quite a bit in the futures market during the trading session, as it appears as though risk appetite will continue to be quite negative. Naturally, this has a negative impact on the S&P 500 futures market, and it appears as though we are about to test the bottom of the most recent selloff. At this moment, the market is also preparing to create the "death cross," which occurs when the 50 Day EMA falls below the 200 Day EMA. While I am not entirely in favor of this signal, I know that it is an area that many people will focus on, and hence may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

The 4100 level beneath has acted as a temporary support barrier, but I believe it is about to be tested again at this time. It's worth noting that during the previous trading session, we formed a massive hammer, implying that there is some support just below. If we were to breach all of that support, the market would descend into a freefall. This would almost likely attract the attention of the majority of people, and perhaps even spark a bit of panic.

 

At that point, the market would very certainly sell off precipitously. To even begin to seem healthy and like it may be an uptrending market, or simply one with a chance of recovery in general, the market would need to break above the 4400 level. At this time, it appears as though we are in grave danger.

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